Prior to this year's NHL season I had taken a detailed look at the Boston Bruins and predicted where we would find them at the end of the season. Lets recap my early predictions and see what we called, and what we missed.
Boston Bruins Season Update
3/28/12
Back on October 3rd, I had a look at the Boston Bruins and evaluated their regular season point total, which NHL odds makers set at 102.5. As is important to all sports bettors, let’s have a look back and see if what I said then was accurate and turned out the way I envisioned it in my crystal ball.
Most importantly, I had the under as the regular season prediction and as it sounds now, the Bruins would need to win six of their last seven games to get the over. In other words, our NHL pick is in pretty good shape.
Here’s a look at the other things I said about the Boston Bruins and whether or not they’ve actually turned out to be true:
“They finished with 103 points last season and the odds makers have a challenging bar for them to surpass at 102.5. With the rest of the teams in their division expecting improvements, don’t expect the Bruins to go over the mark.”
While many of the teams in the Northeast Division did make offseason improvements, the results didn’t go as planned. While Buffalo, Montreal and Toronto were supposed to be the biggest climbers, it didn’t turn out that way. Montreal is the worst team in the East, Toronto is just four points better and the Buffalo Sabres had been among the worst teams in the conference for most of the season until catching fire recently.
In fact, the Ottawa Senators, who were supposed to be the one team that was rebuilding, have been the Bruins biggest contenders. Even so, each time Ottawa has come close to unseating the Bruins for the division lead, they’ve gone into a slump and the Bruins have woken up.
“With a Vezina Trophy winner in Tim Thomas and a burgeoning up-and-comer in Tuukka Rask, the Bruins have one of the best one-two punches in net that money can buy when both are on their game. But that’s not often the case.”
Oddly enough, this has proven to be the case again this season – although not as I expected. The Bruins are still going to be the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs but they have not looked good in the last two months. One of the main reason for it is that both of their goaltenders have struggled.
Tim Thomas has a 3.12 GAA in March, which is astoundingly poor for last year’s Vezina Trophy winner and Stanley Cup Finals MVP. His .881 save percentage in the month is shocking considering he set an NHL record at .938 last season.
Rask is out with a groin injury and hasn’t played well either in recent months. Consider this an aberration rather than the trend, but the Bruins – shockingly – have not been great between the pipes of late and that could turn out to be their downfall.
“The Bruins defense is the glaring weakness on the team. Thomas was able to cover for them in the playoffs but that won’t be the case on a nightly basis.”
To follow up on the previous point, this assessment is likely still true for Boston. While Thomas and Rask haven’t put forth their best work this season, the fact that both have struggled is more of a sign that the players in front of them aren’t doing so well more so than the goalies themselves.
The Bruins blue line is weaker than you might think and that will have to change if they’re to make another playoff run.
“Not much has changed for the Bruins. Unless fatigue is a factor for them, they’re going to be in the same crowd of Eastern Conference contenders as they were last year.”
This has also proven to be true so far, but it looks like fatigue might be a factor. As is always the case with Stanley Cup champions, the follow-up season always seems to be a bit more challenging. Not only have they played a ton of hockey the last two years, every opponent is gunning for them on a nightly basis.
The good news is that the Bruins have the same team and same makeup that won the Stanley Cup last season. The bad news is that Thomas had to carry them through the entire playoffs – including three Game 7’s – and it doesn’t look like he’s up to the challenge again this year.
Look for the Bruins to still get past the first round of the playoffs but matchups against New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia or New York would all be very difficult for the Bruins to get past.
**1/20/2012**
If you’ve got some on the Boston Bruins futures to go
over their regular season point total of 102.5, you’re breathing much easier
these days. The Bruins started the season with just three wins in their first
10 games. After the month of October, they had registered just six points and
appeared to be more hung over than John Daly at an all-inclusive resort.
But that was just the warm-up; since that cold start, the
Bruins reeled off a cool 21-2-1 stretch and looked every bit the Stanley Cup
Champions they are.
As we head into Thursday night’s action, those with the
Bruins futures are feeling pretty good about themselves. They’ve registered 59
points in 43 games and are on pace for 112 points.
Bruins Goaltending
As Good As Ever
We’re not going to get into all-time debates, but you can
definitely make the case that the Bruins currently goaltending duo of Tim
Thomas and Tuukka Rask is among the best one-two punches ever.
Thomas has a ridiculous season last year, winning both
the Vezina Trophy and the Conn Smythe Trophy. What’s scary is that his numbers
are just as good this year.
The Bruins gave up a season-high five goals to the Tampa
Bay Lightning in their 5-3 loss on Tuesday night but even so, Thomas GAA is a
sparkling 2.06. He’s already picked up four shutouts in 28 starts and has a
.935 save percentage.
As for the “backup” Rask, he’d be a welcome start on most
teams. He leads the NHL with a 1.46 GAA and a .946 save percentage, even though
he’s only started 15 games. He’s allowed just 12 goals in his last 11 outings.
In the game of hockey, the math is pretty simple: allow less
goals than you score. So far this season, no team has allowed fewer goals than
the Bruins (88) and that’s a big reason why they’re among the best in the NHL.
A Changing Of The
Guard?
Truth be told, the Bruins had never really been convinced
on Thomas. As good as he’s always been, he’s been forced to share time with
Andrew Raycroft, Hannu Toivonen, Manny Fernandez and Rask. Even in the 2009-10
playoffs, it was Rask starting and not Thomas.
Thomas clearly put those doubts to rest last year with a
season for the annals, but for some reason that question just still lingers a
little bit.
Thomas is 37-years-old and while he’s shown no signs of
slowing down, the sense is that the Bruins will eventually turn to Rask again
full-time. Sounds ludicrous? It sure does – especially if it happened this
season – but don’t overlook the possibility.
The Bruins are in a bit of a funk with a 3-3-0 record in
their last six. Rask has been amazing in his fourth season in the NHL and
Thomas has lost four of his last six starts while giving up four goals in three
of those four losses. Prior to December 31st, he hadn’t allowed four
goals in a game at all this season.
Sports have become so “what have you done for me lately”
that it wouldn’t be surprising to see Rask earn more starts in the second half
of the season. If you’ve got the Bruins regular season win total, that might
not be a bad thing as Thomas could be wearing down a little bit.
Keep an eye on his performance in the coming weeks; if he
stays cools, look for Rask to earn some more burn.
Scoring Supporting
Bruins Netminders
One of the reasons bettors and pundits were so skeptical
of the Bruins all season long last year was simply that their offense was
spotty. The Bruins did average three goals per game but without Marc Savard,
were questioned nonstop about their offensive consistency.
This season, that’s been far from the case.
The Bruins are actually tied with the Chicago Blackhawks
for the most goals in the NHL this season (146) but the difference is that
they’ve only played 43 games while the Blackhawks have played 47. That means
the Bruins lead the NHL in goals per game with a whopping 3.53 average.
The difference has been the growth of the youngsters as
Tyler Seguin has collected 40 points in 42 games. He’s been the elite star but
the Bruins have outstanding balance as seven different forwards have 10 goals
or more.
The scary part is the Bruins still have a couple million
in cap space to add a piece or two at the trade deadline. General Manager Peter
Chiarelli has done a fantastic job of managing the talent and finances, and a
trade deadline acquisition could give them a nice boost.
They score the most goals in the NHL and allow the fewest
(2.02). What’s not to like about the Bruins if you’re locked into their futures
to either go over the regular season win total or even to repeat as Stanley Cup
champs?
**11/06/2011** Update
Boston Bruins
By definition, the Boston Bruins are in the midst of a
Stanley Cup hangover. They brought back virtually the entire team that won the
Cup last year, but they have looked nothing like that team.
Through 12 games this season, they have just 10 points, which
puts them dead last in the Eastern Conference.
Goaltending hasn’t been too much of a problem as Tim
Thomas and Tuukka Rask have held their own, but the goal scoring has been
non-existent. Prior to Saturday’s seven-goal explosion in Toronto, the Bruins had
just 27 tallies through 11 games, which was the second-lowest total in the
East.
The front office is already looking to make some moves as
the Bruins forwards just aren’t getting it done. The good news for Boston is
that they have plenty of cap space and if they want to pull the trigger,
finances won’t get in the way.
Before Saturday, Tyler Seguin and Milan Lucic both led
the team with four goals scored, but they were the only players on the team
with more than seven points so far.
As of now, they are on pace for 59 points this season,
which falls slightly short of their regular season point total of 102.5. They
need to make a move to spark this team and get back on track, but going over
the number looks highly unlikely.
**Original Article**
The Boston Bruins came into the 2010-11 regular season
bunched in among a crowd of Eastern Conference teams with potential. Riding a
hot goalie while pushing it to the limit of extinction in the playoffs, the
Bruins survived three Game 7’s and eventually won the Stanley Cup.
So what do the Bruins have in store for their encore?
Unlike some of the Cup winners in recent years, the
Bruins were not cash-strapped in the offseason, and were able to return their
Cup-winning team intact. They finished with 103 points last season and the NHL odds
makers at Bodog have a challenging bar for them to surpass at 102.5.
With the rest of the teams in their division expecting
improvements, don’t expect the Bruins to go over the mark.
Key Departures: Tomas
Kaberle, Michael Ryder, Mark Recchi, Marc Savard
These losses hurt more on paper than they do in reality.
Kaberle was added at the trade deadline and while he
wasn’t bad, he wasn’t the impact player the Bruins were expecting to get. Ryder
and Recchi combined for 32 goals, so they can be replaced as well. It’s worth
noting that all three players did step up in the postseason and perform much
better than they did in the regular season.
As for Marc Savard, he missed most of last season and
isn’t expected to play this year either. The Bruins have already adjusted to
life without him.
Key Additions: Joe
Corvo
The Bruins have a deep rotation of forwards so they
weren’t forced to address the departures of Ryder and Recchi, but they did need
to replace Kaberle.
Joe Corvo is an underrated puck-moving defenseman who
will be tabbed for the job. He can get the puck out of the zone and also anchor
a power play. He may not have the brand name that Kaberle brought but the
latter’s performance was lackluster and Corvo might in fact be an upgrade.
Goaltending
With a Vezina Trophy winner in Tim Thomas and a
burgeoning up-and-comer in Tuukka Rask, the Bruins have one of the best one-two
punches in net that money can buy when both are on their game.
But that’s not often the case.
Two years ago, Thomas struggled and the keys were handed
to Rask. Last year, Rask stumbled and Thomas carried the team to a Cup.
Defense
The Bruins defense is the only glaring weakness on the team.
Thomas was able to cover for them in the playoffs but
that won’t be the case on a nightly basis. Zdeno Chara is clearly one of the best defensemen in the league, but
he’s the only elite player on this unit. Corvo is expected to help move the
puck and provide and offensive spark from the back end, but if he doesn’t excel
in that role – just as Kaberle failed to – then the Bruins might have to look
for help outside of the organization.
Dennis Seidenberg, Andrew Ference and Johnny Boychuk are
pluggers, but none of them really change the opponent’s offensive gameplan.
The one player inside the organization that could give
this unit a boost is first-round pick Dougie Hamilton. That’s a big question
mark at this point, though, as he’s expected to spend the season in the OHL.
Offense
The Bruins don’t have any star power among this unit and
they’ll have to get the job done with hard work. The hope here is that some of
the youngsters like Brad Marchand and Tyler Seguin continue to develop and
potentially fill that role.
Nathan Horton, Patrice Bergeron, Milan Lucic and David
Krejci are the familiar faces that will man the top two lines.
This is a team that gets the job done with balance and
that will have to be the case once again. Lucic led the team in goals last year
with 30, but 11 others notched at least 10.
Outlook
Not much has changed for the Bruins. Unless fatigue is a
factor for them, they’re going to be in the same crowd of Eastern Conference
contenders as they were last year.
Keep in mind that this is a team that was one goal away
from losing in the first round of the playoffs. That’s not a knock on their
talent; it’s just a statement that they are a blue collar team with an
excellent goaltender, and they need to catch breaks to make a deep run once again.
The concern on this regular season total has to be the
fact that the other teams in the Northeast Division have closed the gap. The
Montreal Canadiens have added some grit, the Toronto Maple Leafs have added a
couple of pieces, the Buffalo Sabres went on a spending spree and even the
Ottawa Senators can’t be any worse than they were last year.
The Bruins went 38-18-8 against the East last year and
look for some of their division neighbors to take a bite out of their point
total.
Whichever seed they are come playoff time, the recipe
will be the same and it’s just a question of whether Boston can whip it up
again. But for the regular season, look for their point total to dip under the
set total of 102.5.
Pick: Under 102.5