Vancouver Canucks season win total to go over 106.5

Reflecting on Canucks regular season point total

Tuesday, March 27, 2012 11:57 AM ET

Blog Update

The Vancouver Canucks regular season point total was set at 106.5 and right from the preseason, our prediction was that it was going to get over the number. With just six games remaining on the season, they are still on pace to come through. 

The Canucks have really had three phases to their season: a sluggish start, an incredible run in the middle and a bit of a choppy finish. 

We wrote them up in the preseason to examine their regular season point total and make a prediction. Let’s have a look back at our original post and see how things turned out. 

As all gamblers love to do, they love to track things, build a record and see who’s right more than wrong. Fair enough: being right more than being wrong means more money for us instead of the sportsbooks. 

With that in mind, here’s a critique of the things we said about the Canucks back on October 2^nd, 2011.

“With plenty of talent, depth and experience, there’s little reason to believe the Canucks won’t be competing for the Cup once again during the 2011-12 season. And with an easy division, they should also cruise above their regular season point total and surpass the total of 106.5.”

We started off pretty bold but that assessment has been accurate. As mentioned above, the Canucks had a slow start to the season but since then, there’s really been no question about them making the playoffs or winning the division.

Interestingly enough, the Minnesota Wild were the first team in the NHL to 20 wins this season and they led the Northwest Division. But the Wild have just 11 wins (in 45 games) since and as we approach the end of March, there’s a 29-point gap between them and the Canucks.

The Canucks are comfortably nestled into the No. 2 spot in the West and they are once again a chief contender for the Cup.

“If you’re a football fan, picture the New Orleans Saints switching divisions into the NFC West. That’s basically what the Northwest Division is for the Canucks. There isn’t much competition.”

That’s turned out to be the case. The Canucks have a 15-point lead in the Northwest – the biggest margin of any division leader in the NHL.

“Sturm was added to be a top-six forward but there are questions as to whether he’s still got it. Alongside Ryan Kesler on the second line, he should look just fine and could turn out to be a sneaky addition.”

When the Canucks picked up Marco Sturm in the offseason, the general thought out there was that it was a coin flip move that might pair Ryan Kesler with some more skill on the second line. As it turns out, that wasn’t the case whatsoever and the Canucks moved quickly to patch that up.

They shipped off Sturm and fan favorite Mikael Samuelsson for another gamble: former 30-goal scorer David Booth. He turned out to be exactly what the second line needed and has helped provide the necessary scoring.

If the Canucks top line is shutdown in the postseason again – as it has been in previous years – they now have plenty of confidence in their supplementary units to take the pressure off.

“Backup Corey Schneider could have No. 1 potential and might see more starts not only to keep Luongo fresh, but to offer a glimpse into a not-so-hypothetical future where he starts and Luongo sits.”

The Ghosts of Christmas Future have started to foreshadow what we might see come playoff time. We saw the expression on head coach Alain Vigneault’s face last postseason: “If only I could have given Schneider some more regular season starts!”

As it turns out, that’s been the case this year and this time around, Schneider is ready for the playoffs. He’s played in 29 games already this season after having just 25 last year. His GAA improved from 2.23 last season to 2.03 this year and his save percentage is a sparkling .934. 

More importantly, Vigneault has given him some big starts – even when Luongo was healthy. Schneider has faced Detroit, St. Louis, Chicago, San Jose, Nashville and Boston.

He’s 10-2-1 in his last 13 while giving up just 25 goals in those contests. If Luongo gets pulled in the playoffs again, he probably won’t get his job back.

“With that in mind, bet the over on their regular season point total as they will have a slew of easy games inside their division. Once they get fully healthy, don’t be surprising if they go on a tear and again challenge for the Presidents’ Trophy.”

The Canucks have definitely been in contention for the Presidents’ Trophy all season long and it’s still within reach. They’re on pace to go over their regular season win total as well – mostly because of an easy division.

One interesting point to note is that the Canucks would be in better shape for both the total and the trophy had they done a better job against the weaker foes. They’re just 23-18 against teams below .500 (-10.4 units) compared to 22-12 (+6.1) versus winning teams.

As the playoffs approach, our outlook is still pretty much the same. If the Canucks can get steady goaltending and reliable goaltending – be it from Luongo or Schneider – they’re likely to win the West once again.

**1/22/2012** Update

It wasn’t pretty for the Vancouver Canucks in the first month of the season. They had injuries to deal with (Ryan Kesler and Mason Raymond), they had a Stanley Cup Finals hangover (six wins in first 14 games) and goaltender Roberto Luongo was a disaster (3.54 GAA in October). 

But don’t fret if you have them in your NHL picks for the season. The Canucks collectively took a deep breath, tweaked their roster a little bit and are once again among the top teams in the Western Conference. 

It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride but with 62 points through 48 games, the Canucks are in great shape to smash their regular season point total of 106.5 and again be serious Cup contenders. 

Canucks Catch Fire In December…Again

The Canucks started the season 9-9-1 and many fans, pundits and bettors were wondering if they were simply gassed from such an exhausting Stanley Cup run. Truth be told, most of those Negative Nancys were not particularly close to the team as the close followers knew that the Canucks had a similar start to the season previously. 

During the 2010-11 season, the Canucks suffered a four-game losing streak in late November, which tally at 10 wins and 10 losses. The team mettle was quickly questioned and many fans figured they weren’t going to get past the early rounds of the playoffs. That was until they caught fire in December. 

The Canucks were 10-7-3 on November 21 but come January 8^th, they were 27-8-5. They had reeled off 17 wins in 20 games and climbed to the top of the West. 

Fast forward to this season and the story played out similarly. After a 9-9-1 start, the Canucks went on to win 15 of 19 to rocket up the standings. 

Remember how the Minnesota Wild were running things in the Northwest Division to start the year? Yeah, nobody really does. Vancouver is back in business and again looking scary-good as we pass the halfway point. 

Luongo Gets His Game Back 

In October, Luongo was just 3-3-1 with a whopping 3.54 GAA. The problem for him was that it wasn’t just a bad start, it was the continuation of poor play that fans saw in the 2010-11 playoffs and they were really questioning whether he’s the man to take them to the promise land. 

And as is typically the case in hockey, whenever a player goes through a slump, the trade rumors start pouring in. There was crazy talk that the Canucks might send Luongo down to the minors, or maybe that the Toronto Maple Leafs might offer a package for him, or that the Tampa Bay Lightning were willing to swap Vincent Lecavalier for him. Instead, Luongo’s play returned to form and everyone settled down. 

Luongo improved to 4-2-0 with a 2.30 GAA in November, 9-3-1 with a 2.04 GAA in December and so far has a 1.96 GAA in December, although his record is just 2-2-2. 

The bottom line is that he’s an all-world goalie and after one bad month, he’s finally playing like the goalie we’re used to seeing. 

Two Heads Are Better Than One? 

The Canucks have an interesting dynamic. To be fair, a number of Western Conference contenders have the same problem: are two goalies better than one? 

As Luongo struggled, “backup” Corey Schneider emerged. On the season, Schneider is 10-5-0 with a 2.30 GAA and two shutouts. He’s won eight of his last 10 starts, including a 4-3 victory over the Boston Bruins. It’s interesting that head coach Alain Vigneault even started him for that game, which might be a smoke signal of sorts. 

Regardless, the Canucks have two goalies and while the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks might have a tough time determining who’s their No. 1 come playoff time, their situation is a little different. In the postseason last year, Schneider didn’t really have the type of experience that allowed Vigneault to confidently turn to him. He stepped in when Luongo was god-awful and there was no other choice. This time around, Schneider is ready to go and if Luongo struggles, the switch will be permanent. 

Vancouver’s roster remains virtually intact among their forwards and blue liners from last season’s run. And with a spark from Schneider – or maybe the spark is that he simply motivates Luongo to play better – the Canucks might be in better shape to finally bring back the Cup to Canada.

**11/02/2011** Update

The Boston Bruins aren’t the only Stanley Cup finalist that’s experiencing the Cup hangover.

We’re through one month of action in the 2011-12 regular season and the Canucks can’t seem to find their stride. They’ve already made a roster move to shake things up – acquiring former 30-goal scorer David Booth – but it hasn’t had the intended effect quite yet. Booth has yet to score a goal this season, has just three assists and is a -9 on the year.

Scoring has been an issue for Vancouver as the team that led the NHL with goals tallied last year has 39 through 14 games. That sounds good but 12 of those goals came in two games, which leaves just 27 through the other 12 (2.25 per game). The bigger problem has been the fact that they can’t get any decent netminding as they have given 42 goals, which is the second-most in the Western Conference. 

Roberto Luongo has settled down after his deplorable start but his cumulative numbers aren’t pretty. He’s still just 4-4-1 with a 3.19 GAA. The calls for his head have been noticeably quieter of late as backup Corey Schneider has lost two straight while giving up eight goals in the process. 

There’s no question that Vancouver can turn things around. They’ve got the talent to do so at every level of the ice and they surely have the goaltending to carry them. But the problem is that right now, their best players aren’t being their best, and the team is not working as a well-oiled machine. On some nights, the offense is going but the goaltending stinks, on other nights the offense is laboring but the goaltending is performing.

We saw the Canucks go on an impressive 24-3-6 run starting in the middle of December last season, which really propelled them to the top of the West. Prior to that, they were just 10-7-3.

As of this morning, the Canucks are 6-7-1, so clearly, it’s too early to panic, but this has been a surprisingly slow start for a team that was expected to dominate the West once again. They are on pace for 76 points and will need to catch fire like they did last year to have a chance of going over their regular season point total of 106.5.

**Original Article**

With plenty of talent, depth and experience, there’s little reason to believe the Vancouver Canucks won’t be competing for the Cup once again during the 2011-12 season. The NHL odds listed at Bodog have set the win total for Vancouver at 106.5, and with such an easy division, they should also be able cruise above that total. 

Key Departures: Christian Ehrhoff, Raffi Torres 

Ehrhoff was the only significant loss for the Canucks this offseason as they couldn’t touch the offer that the Buffalo Sabres presented him. Ehrhoff was a 50-point producer on the blue line and he’s agood puck-moving defenseman, but the Cancuks are one of the few teams that can handle this type of departure seamlessly. 

Torres added 14 goals and plenty of grit, but he was a lightning rod for controversy and the Canucks have plenty of grinders to replace him. 

Key Additions: Marco Sturm 

The Canucks were fairly quiet in this department. Sturm was added to be a top-six forward but there are questions as to whether he’s still got it. Alongside Ryan Kesler on the second line, he should look just fine and could turn out to be a sneaky addition. 

Goaltending 

As much flack as Roberto Luongo takes for his postseason play against the Boston Bruins, the Vezina finalist is still among the finer goalies in the NHL – especially in the regular season. This is still his job and still his team, for all intents and purposes. 

Backup Corey Schneider could have No. 1 potential and might see more starts not only to keep Luongo fresh, but to offer a glimpse into a not-so-hypothetical future where he starts and Luongo sits. 

For regular season purposes, this is the best 1-2 punch in net in the NHL. 

Defense 

The Canucks let Ehrhoff walk via free agency, but they still have three excellent pairings as well as lots of depth. The top tandem will be Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Bieksa, who are equipped to go up against all of the league’s best offensive units. Sami Salo and Alex Edler will fill out a pairing and both have good offensive skills with Salo’s shot and Edler, who won’t have to worry so much about his partner jumping up into the play (he worked with Ehrhoff last year). Aaron Rome, Andrew Alberts and Chris Tanev are all around to compete for ice time, as is Keith Ballard, who was a disappointment in his first year with the team last season. 

There is ample quality and depth all the way through in this department. 

Offense 

The Canucks have an excellent grouping of forwards but they won’t be at full strength right off the bat. Ryan Kesler and Mason Raymond are still nursing their injuries from the Stanley Cup Finals and it could be a couple of months before this team is at full strength. 

Even so, they should still score plenty. 

Henrik and Daniel Sedin could again lead the league in points, and they’ll work the top line with Alex Burrows. Kesler is the best second-line center in the league when healthy, but until he’s back, the highly-touted Cody Hodgson might have a chance to make an impact. Marco Sturm and a healthy Mikael Samuelsson will man the wings on the second line. The latter two lines will be filled by Chris Higgins, Manny Malhotra, Jannik Hanson, Maxim Lapierre and Victor Oreskovich. 

This is actually a pretty good unit as is but when you add a healthy Kesler and Raymond into the mix, this becomes among the best units in the league. The Sedins are stellar playmakers (in the regular season), Kesler will lead a good second line, Malhotra is a pest on the checking line and if Lapierre can play like he did in the playoffs, this unit is going to be outstanding. 

They led the league in goals scored last year and it wouldn’t be a surprise for them to finish in the top five once again. 

Outlook 

If you’re a football fan, picture the New Orleans Saints switching divisions into the NFC West. That’s basically what the Northwest Division is for the Canucks. There isn’t much competition.

Consider that the team closest (Calgary) to them finished 23 points back, and the other four teams in the division averaged 77.5 points, the Canucks find themselves in the weakest division in hockey. 

Even with Kesler and Raymond out for the first part of the season, the Canucks should sleepwalk to another division win. The Calgary Flames made lateral moves in the offseason, the Minnesota Wild got worse while the Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers will have us believe that they are improved. We’ll believe it when we see it. 

That leaves the Canucks, who are not only an established, veteran team, but are the Western Conference champions. They have depth all over the place that they can even handle injuries and still win the division.

With that in mind, bet the over on their regular season point total as they will have a slew of easy games inside their division. Once they get fully healthy, don’t be surprising if they go on a tear and again challenge for the Presidents’ Trophy.