The Pittsburgh Penguins have claimed the Stanley Cup in 2009 and will look to defend their title next season. But 29 teams stand in their way, and all 30 teams already have futures prices up for who will lift Lord Stanley's Cup in 2010. With a wealth of young talent and tradeable assets, the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers seem awfully tempting at these early prices.
It is an extremely risky proposition to start eying futures on the winner of the 2009-10 Stanley Cup winner when the 2008-09 winner is in such recent memory. Draft Day usually brings the excitement of not only a fresh crop of young players but also a steady dose of blockbuster trades. Things get even more complicated when free agents get thrown into the mix; it is impossible to know whether the teams you bet on now will be losing free-agents they hope to re-sign, or adding that marquee sniper or defenseman that they were lacking last season.
With all of this in mind, If you can guess right on some of these teams, you can sometimes get numbers considerably better than what you would after those moves are made. Teams will jump from 40 to 1 up to 10 to 1 adding a big name sniper or trading for an elite goaltender. Testing the waters before Draft Day is high risk, but could also pay huge dividends if played correctly. Here are a few teams that jumped out at me as good plays before the madness commences.
Los Angeles Kings, 60-to-1
I’m going to take a ton of flak for this pick, considering the fact that the Kings are my favorite team; but that really has nothing to do with it. I don’t think the Kings are a realistic threat to win it all next year. I do think, however, that by opening day these odds will be considerably lower, and having your hands on a 60-to-1 ticket will be very rare.
General Manager Dean Lombardi has done a remarkable job of making the team younger and building up their reserves as well. The Kings pushed for a playoff spot this season before eventually fading out. Next season they bring back virtually their entire core, with no significant free agents-to-be on their roster. If the Kings do not make a single move, one could argue that they would compete this year at least for a low playoff spot like they did last year, with all of the young players having an extra year’s worth of experience and a year of gelling together under their belt.
But the Kings will very likely NOT head into camp without making a move. The Kings are widely speculated to be after a big name free agent to fill their offensive needs, with the list including names like Marian Gaborik, Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat, and the Sedin brothers. Any of those signings would make the 60-to-1 odds disappear in seconds.
The other benefit of having such a good young core is having trading chips. The Kings were strong defensively last year, and in Jack Johnson they possess an elite young defensive prospect that is expendable due to having so many promising prospects in their pipeline. It has been widely speculated that the Kings may use some combination of their first round pick (the fifth overall) and Jack Johnson to trade for an elite sniper along the lines of Vincent Lecavlier, Dany Heatley, or Ilya Kovalchuk. Once again, a trade like this would skyrocket the Kings’ odds.
Again, I don’t anticipate the Kings actually winning the Cup next year. But at 60-to-1, without a single change they are worth the gamble of making the playoffs and then hedging out a profit. But in the extremely likely event that they make some sort of major splash in the coming months, a number this high will be taken off the board for good.
Edmonton Oilers, 30-to-1
Despite a disappointing season statistically for the Edmonton Oilers last season, they still came very close to making the playoffs, only truly falling off towards the very end.
Edmonton had an uncharacteristically average season on offense last year, but that comes with the territory of breaking in so many young players. Much like the Kings, this unit should definitely show improvement this year having a season of real NHL experience and a season of working together under their belt. Trading free agent-to-be Erik Cole to get the young and takented Patrick O’Sullivan should also pay dividends for the Oilers this year.
Remarkably the Oilers have only two players of significance up for free agency; winger Ales Kotalik and goaltender Dwayne Roloson. The rest of the core will all be back next year.
General Manager Kevin Lowe* isn’t a big fan of quiet off-seasons. Much like the Kings, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Edmonton made a splash this offseason. Lowe has shown in the past that he isn’t afraid to go after restricted free agents, and there are some goaltending options out there both restricted and unrestricted for Edmonton to choose from if they decide to part ways with Roloson. If the Oilers land a strong goaltender via free-agency or trade, the 30-to-1 won’t stay on the board very long.
Edmonton’s name is also being tossed around in trade rumors for superstars Dany Heatley and Vincent Lecavlier. Unlike the Kings who may actually opt out of the races for the big free agents and trades if the price gets too steep, Lowe shows no fear and isn’t the type of GM that will take kindly to another losing season.
Again, I wouldn’t expect the Oilers to win it all next season; but they have the potential to be an offensively explosive team even without any key additions, and they are worth a long look at 30-to-1. And they almost certainly will make a key addition or two, which would drive their price down and give you a ticket price worth bragging about.
*Editor's Note: Thank you to those in the comments section that pointed out this error. Steve Tambellini is the general manager of the Edmonton Oilers, not Kevin Lowe; Lowe was promoted to President of Hockey Operations. I still don't believe this changes the fact that the Oilers make a good bet pre-draft, because I still believe that they will go out and make some moves, and Tambellini may even be set on putting his stamp on the franchise with his first big move.