With the NFL and NBA still stuck in their lockouts, we look at the NHL lockout of 2004 and consider what we can learn from that experience
On September 16, 2004, the NHL began a lockout that would last 310 days and ultimately cost franchises, players, and fans the chance to enjoy hockey during the 2004-2005 season. Commissioner Gary Bettman claimed that the league was broken financially, with teams losing approximately $273 million in 2002-03. The major sticking point in negotiations was the implementation of a salary cap. According to the league, teams were spending approximately 76% of gross revenue on player salaries. The figure that was ultimately accepted to end the lockout was 54%, a significant loss for the players.
The NHL lockout had several effects on the game of hockey in North America. First of all, the sport lost many of its casual fans. Some of these fans have not yet returned in 2011. Several players chose to play in other leagues, specifically those in Europe. This resulted in the best players in the world losing a year of their careers outside of the NHL.
Several rule changes were implemented, mostly favoring the offense. This caused an offensive explosion in NHL terms, as teams averaged 6.05 gpg. In NHL handicapping terms, the ‘over’ became a very solid play, especially early in season while books and gamblers were adjusting to life in the new NHL. Puck line plays were also better-than-usual, as teams were more likely to score enough goals to cover a -1 ½. There was also chaos in the Western Conference playoffs, as all four top seeds fell in the first round, and the eighth-seeded Edmonton Oilers made the Stanley Cup Finals (and were ultimately defeated by the Carolina Hurricanes). Many observers felt the lockout had an effect, as teams gelled later than usual. That did not explain, though, the Eastern Conference holding largely to form.
NFL and NBA similarities
Can we expect to see anything like this in NFL or NBA as a result of their respective lockouts? Let’s take it one league at a time, beginning with the NFL. I expect the NFL to play a full schedule (the NFL lockout may actually be over by the time you read this). Do not expect an erosion of the fan base. There will, however, be effects, even with full training camps. Pay a lot of attention to teams with new coaches, coordinators, and quarterbacks early. The lack of time with the playbook prior to the season is going to be very difficult to overcome. The Carolina Panthers are a prime example of this, and I could see them having trouble scoring points, especially early in the season. Take a look at St. Louis, where Josh McDaniels has been hired as offensive coordinator. Second-year starter Sam Bradford has several new receivers with which to work, but they’re going to need time to gel. I recommend looking at football lines against these teams ATS early, as well as giving strong consideration to the ‘under.’
Take note of teams such as Houston and Philadelphia with new defensive coordinators. A lack of teaching time could result in some air shows against these squads. If totals do not adjust to this reality, ‘overs’ could be the way to go with teams breaking in new defensive coordinators.
The NBA lockout is more difficult to predict, and more like the NHL in many ways. The NBA’s economic system is fundamentally flawed, and there is a decent chance that the entire 2011-2012 season will be lost. I do believe that this would result in a erosion of the casual fan base, and we could see some players opt to play in international leagues. I do not, however, expect any rule changes to come out of the lockout.
So, how would a year off affect NBA betting? It is hard to say at this point, without knowing what the new salary structure may do to existing lineups. I would advise paying attention to roster age. The Dallas Mavericks are a prime example of this. They are a veteran (kind word for old) team. The public will remember them as NBA Champions, but they will be significantly older. Teams such as this could be prime fade material.
I would also expect scoring to be down after an extended NBA lockout. Offense in the NBA is dependent on players being familiar with each other (remember Miami’s early struggles in 2010). This will clearly be an issue after a year away, particularly if rosters get scrambled due to provisions in the new CBA. ‘Unders’ could dominate the NBA when it returns.
I hope that I am right about the impending conclusion of the NFL lockout and wrong about the length of the NBA stoppage. Nothing would make me happier as a sports fan than to see the NBA season tip off as scheduled in October, making the last third of this article irrelevant. I don’t think, however, that is going to happen. As sports gamblers, we owe it to ourselves to think about the impact this can have on our hobby.
Time to get those NCAAB power ratings together, friends. It could be a long winter.