Every year people are on the lookout for trends to ride or fade. This year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs is no exception. After the 1st round, one trend appears to be holding true so far—home ice advantage and disadvantage.
Looking at the overall
statistics and you might wonder what I am talking about, but a closer look
reveals a clear nuance in the numbers.
Favorites have a
statistical advantage at home in the 1st 2 games of a series, but
not later on.
Going back over the past four seasons, you will notice that
favorites are 73-34 in their 1st 2 home games of a series. That is good enough for a 68% winning
record. While it might not be the
largest sample size, when you compare these numbers with what happens in the
rest of the series you’ll realize that there is a large discrepancy in the
stats.
For instance, in games 3 and 4 of the NHL Playoffs, the home team winning
percentage is close to 50% over that time, and in the final 3 games the road
team has a greater win rate.
In fact, this trend is one that goes back much further than
recent history. It is consistent with
what sports psychologists have found with the impact of the home crowd. When evaluating the significance of
“pressure”, researchers have discovered that home ice advantage does indeed
favor the home team early in the series, but as the pressure mounts the edge
shifts to the road team.
Athletes are
hard-wired to carry out their actions as automated processes very little conscious
thought is required to perform at a high level.
However, once the stakes become greater and the difference between
advancing and golfing heightens, players over-think their approach to the
game.
“Archival data from the previous studies suggested that the
presence of a supportive audience leads to a state of self-attention,” Dr.
Voyer. This has been dubbed the “home
disadvantage effect.” Fear and
self-conciousness make home players more prone to mistakes they wouldn’t
normally make.
The evidence
On average, this trend holds true over the long haul. So far, in this year’s NHL playoffs,
favorites went 11-6 in the 1st 2 games of the 1st round.
Despite the so-called “parity” in the league today,
underdogs have a tough time overcoming the disadvantage of starting a series on
the road, and home teams have a harder time closing out a series at home later
on.
Keep this in mind going forward as you evaluate the matchups
throughout a series and the next time you read an article debunking home ice
advantage in the playoffs—remember that overall averages can mask a deeper
truth.
Having said all that, this doesn’t mean that you should
blindly follow a trend. It’s very easy
to manipulate numbers to make a “system” appear valid, but since this one has a
foundation of scientific research behind it, it’s something to keep an eye
on.
Moreover, teams like Vancouver, Philadelphia, and Boston are
coming off of very emotional, hard-fought 7 game series. It will be difficult for them to elevate
their intensity to the same level in game 1 of round 2. The turnaround is quick and there isn’t a lot
of time for these teams to rest, prepare, and re-focus for the next
opponent. In these instances, it might
be a good opportunity for a situational play.
Other teams like Detroit and Washington might suffer a 1st
game lapse from too much rest and idle time.
Continue to evaluate the games and reading NHL odds as you normally would—including injuries,
matchups, special teams, goaltenders, coaches, motivation, and so on.
But keep the home ice advantage and disadvantage trends in mind
going forward as each series unfolds and the next time you read an article
debunking home ice advantage in the playoffs—remember that overall averages can
mask a deeper truth.