NHL Picks: Full Friday card with analysis

There are three NHL games in tap for Friday night, November 18, but just because the schedule is light, that does not mean that we cannot have a profitable evening.

The three games do include two division leaders. The leaders of the Northeast Division, the Buffalo Sabres, open up the evening by visiting the Carolina Hurricanes, while the leaders of the Central Division, the Chicago Blackhawks, visit the Calgary Flames in one of the later games. The third contest sees the Dallas Stars visiting the Colorado Avalanche.

Here are our NHL Picks for all three face-offs, as we are going with one favorite, one underdog and one total on the NHL odds.

Sabres over Hurricanes on road
The Sabres travel south to take on the Hurricanes at the RBC Center in Raleigh, NC at 7:00 ET. The current odds on this contest have Buffalo as -124 favorites at Pinnacle Sports.

The Sabres have been great on the road this season, going 6-2-0. In fact, Buffalo has played much better when traveling, as it is just 5-5-0 inside its own rink. The Sabres should now be able to take advantage of a struggling Carolina defense in this contest.

The Hurricanes are allowing a horrible 3.47 goals per game this season, which is surprising for a team that has Cam Ward as its starting goaltender. Ward has been disappointing in his 16 starts going 6-8-2 2 with a high 3.27 GAA and a rather ordinary .904 save percentage, suggesting that he has as much to do with all those goals allowed as the struggling Carolina defense in front of him does, and he has been downright brutal recently.

Carolina has lost six of its last seven games while allowing five goals an alarming four times, four goals once and three goals twice, including in the one victory. Add it all up, and the Hurricanes have been outscored 30-14 over those last seven games while allowing at least three goals in every game. Yet, Ward is still probable to start again vs. Buffalo in this contest.

Now Carolina has won three of the last four head-to-head meetings with Buffalo including a 4-3 win early this season, but the Sabres are playing better hockey right now and Buffalo is a decidedly better team than last season, which is when the Hurricanes’ mini-dominance in this series began.

The Sabres have won five of their last seven games, and unlike the Canes, this team has no real issues in net. Yes, their All-Star goaltender Ryan Miller is out with a concussion, but Buffalo has not missed a beat as Jhonas Enroth has stepped right in and gone 6-1-0 between the pipes with a sparking 2.19 GAA and a good .926 save percentage. Enroth is probable to get the start tonight.

The offense has picked things up lately also averaging an impressive 3.60 goals in the last five games, so given Carolina’s defensive difficulties, this game could potentially get out of and rather quickly.

Avalanche upset Stars at home
The Stars are visiting an Avalanche team that has had some issues at home this season at the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO at 9:00 ET. Colorado is currently a +105 underdog, but those odds will almost certainly improve when 5 Dimes puts up its Reduced Odds later this morning.

Oddly, the Avalanche are just 2-6-0 at home this season after dropping their last home game vs. the Calgary Flames, and they then went on the road and lost at Pittsburgh and Minnesota, giving them three straight losses and seven defeats in their last eight games. And yet we actually like them tonight vs. a Stars team that is 11-6-0 on the year and just one point behind the first place Los Angeles Kings in the Pacific Division.

You see, as much as Colorado has been struggling, the Stars are having their own issues right now while losing three straight games, with the most recent loss being a dismal 6-0 defeat at home on Tuesday vs. a Florida Panthers team that is hardly an offensive juggernaut.

Remember that Dallas was one of the biggest surprises in the league with its 11-3-0 start, so we could be looking at a team here that is regressing to its proper level. That alone could be enough of a reason not to back the Stars as road favorites at the present time regardless of the opposition.

Dallas has been outscored 14-3 during its three game losing streak and a couple of guys that they were counting on to score goals have not been showing up, which is a concern for a team that let Brad Richards get away during the off season. Captain Brenden Morrow has just three goals all year, and while Loui Eriksson does lead the team with nine goals, only one of those tallies has come in the last five games.

Also, for those thinking that a trip to Colorado should serve as an instant cure for whatever is ailing the Stars, keep in mind that they have lost six of their last eight games when playing in the altitude, including a 5-0 loss to what was a terrible Avalanche team here last season.

Yes, the Avs are 2-8-1 in their last 11 games as goalie Semyon Varlamov has tailed off considerably after playing brilliantly in the early going, but he got the night off in Colorado’s narrow 1-0 defeat in Minnesota last night in favor of J.S. Giguere, so he may be rejuvenated tonight, especially if the defense plays as well in front of him as it did vs. the Wild.



Blackhawks, Flames go ‘under’
The first-place Blackhawks go outside of their division by taking on the Calgary Flames north of the border at the Saddledome in Calgary, AB at 9:00 ET. The current total on this contest at The Greek Sports Book is 5½, with the ‘under’ listed at -120

Something has to give here in regards to this total, as the ‘over’ is 11-8 in all Chicago games this season while the ‘under’ is 10-5-2 in all Calgary games We suspect that the Blackhawks will come out flat after a big road win at Vancouver on Wednesday though, so we will side with the ‘under’.

The Blackhawks, who now own a scintillating 12-4-3 record, were sky high for that encounter with the defending Western Conference Champions. Chicago did not forget what happened in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season, when they got down 3-0 in the series and came back to win the next three games and then take Game 7 into overtime, only to lose 2-1 in gut-wrenching fashion.

Well. Chicago jumped all over the Canucks 5-1 Wednesday, and we think it will almost impossible for the Blackhawks to match that intensity level tonight in a letdown spot vs. a 7-9-1 Flames team. Now this is not to say that they cannot beat a team like Calgary with even a lesser effort, but we do not foresee them putting five goals in the net again.

Now truth be told, the Flames are actually fortunate to have even seven wins this season, as they are averaging just 2.10 goals per game overall and a putrid 1.78 goals here at home in the Saddledome. That should give you an indication of just how great Miikka Kiprusoff has been in net, and the combination of a weak offense and great goaltending also explains why the ‘under’ has been such a cash cow in Calgary games this year.

It is also worth noting that the two pushes that the Flames have had on their totals this year have both been in games with a posted total of 5, meaning that the ‘under’ would actually be 12-5 vs. this posted total of 5½. With Kiprusoff probable to make his sixth straight start tonight and with the Blackhawks on a Breather Alert, expect more of the same here with another low scoring affair.