NHL Playoffs: Conference Championship Previews

Starting Saturday the NHL will put on display their version of the Final Four. The Eastern Conference Championship features the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Boston Bruins and the Western Conference Championship features the San Jose Sharks taking on the Vancouver Canucks. 

The Western Conference Championship

**05/27/2011 Update**

5* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on the Boston Bruins in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final taking place at TD Garden in Boston at 8:05 PM. This game will be televised by VERSUS. All the pressure in the world is squarely on the Boston Bruins as they try to exercise another playoff collapse. 

They had a three goal lead in the first period of Game 4 and blew that lead losing the game. They have failed in many games to keep Tampa bay from scoring in the first 90 seconds of the game. They have failed to score on the power play and although the defense has been solid at times the Lightning offense is playing at a peak level.  

Last season the Bruins blew a three games to none series advantage to the Philadelphia Flyers and that demon is now back at TD Garden. The Bruins spent most of this season trying to forget that epoch collapse, but now through their own miscues are facing the same outcome.  

Tampa Has a huge advantage on offense and they also know they can really open it up here in game 7. The media also gives them the backup of stating they should lose this game since they are the road team in a Game 7 so why not just open up the offense full throttle. 

Supporting Systems

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Tampa bay will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 38-12 making 29.6 units per one unit wagered since 2005.

Play against home teams when the money line is -100 to -150 that are solid offensive teams scoring 2.85 or more goals per game on the season with the game taking place in the second half of the season including the playoffs and after a game where both teams scored four goals or more.

My Pick: Take the Lightning.

**05/25/2011 Update**

I like the Vancouver Canucks as they take on the San Jose Sharks in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final set to start at 9:05 PM ET.  My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a high probability that Vancouver will win this game and move on to the Stanley Cup Final.  

As was the case on Game 4, the simulator shows a high probability that San Jose will score two or fewer goals in this game. In past games where Vancouver held their opponent to two or fewer goals they have produced a 51-8 mark making 38.3 units per one unit wagered, 129-17 mark making 109.6 units per one unit wagered spanning the past three seasons, and 445-90 mark making a whopping 379.5 units per one unit wagered since 1996. In past games where San jose has scored two or fewer goals they have posted an 11-28 record losing 32.8 units per one unit wagered this season, 31-82 mark losing 103.9 units per one unit wagered spanning the past three seasons and 118-421 mark losing a horrid 445.6 units per one unit wagered since 1996. 

Vancouver is also reinforced by several strong game situations noting they are 25-8 against the money line making 11.7 units per one unit wagered after having won three of their last four games this season; 40-16 against the money line making 15.0 units per one unit wagered after having won four or five of their last six games this season; 22-9 against the money line making 10.3 units per one unit wagered after allowing two goals or more in the third period last game over the last two seasons.

Take Vancouver.

**Original Article**

The Western Conference has gone mostly according to the seedings earned from the regular season, with No. 1 Vancouver taking on No. 2 San Jose. The Canucks won three of the four regular season meetings between the two, but two went into shootouts and three games were decided by one goal or less. 

The first time they met, November 26, Vancouver blew the San Jose Sharks out of the building winning 6-1 while installed as -130 home favorites. The second meeting saw Vancouver win 4-3 at San Jose while listed as +120 road dogs by the NHL odds makers. The third meeting was a 2-1 San Jose win at Vancouver with the Sharks installed as +135 dogs on January 20. The fourth meeting saw Vancouver win 5-4 at San Jose installed as +105 dogs. 

All of these games saw offensive attacks with both teams getting an above average amount of shots on goal. Only in one game did a team not get more than 35 shots on goal, and that was Vancouver getting 28 shots on goal in the last meeting. It would stand to reason that the Western Conference Finals will be a fast and furious style of series with goals a plenty. 

Rankings and statistics

These may be the two best teams in the Western Conference, but Vancouver has significant advantages at both ends of the ice. During the regular season Vancouver had the best offensive and defensive scoring rankings in the NHL. Vancouver ranked best in scoring offense averaging 3.15 goals per game and in scoring defense allowing 2.20 goals per game. The scoring differential also ranked best at 0.95 goals per game. 

San Jose ranked high as well in these categories, but no where near the levels attained by the Canucks. San Jose ranked sixth in scoring offense averaging 2.96 goals per game and ranked 10th in scoring defense allowing 2.54 goals per game. The Sharks scoring differential was nearly half as positive at 0. 43 goals per game. 

Playoff stats and rankings

There is a different set of results, however, when look at just the playoff games played. San Jose ranks seventh best averaging 2.92 goals per game and ha allowed 2.92 goals per game for a net zero scoring differential. Surprisingly, the Vancouver Canucks are averaging just 2.31 goals per game ranking 14th in 13 playoff games played.

Vancouver’s defense has carried the load and been far more consistent ranking fifth in scoring defense allowing 2.54 goals per game. As odd as it appears, the Canucks are the number one ranked NHL team and playing for the Western Conference title, yet have a negative 0.23 goals per game scoring differential. 

In the 13 playoff games Vancouver has played they have scored 30 and allowed 33 goals. Of the 33 goals allowed 21 of the were scored by the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks. Moreover, 17 of the goals allowed occurred inGames 2 through Games 6 of that Blackhawk series.

In the last series against Nashville the Vancouver defense allowed just 11 goals in the six games played and did allow four goals in a Game 5 loss to the Predators. So, the Vancouver defense is playing at a very high level and it will be a difficult task for San Jose to score goals in this series. 

Looking at Game 1, I like Vancouver to win the series and Game 1.

Supporting this play in Game 1 is the fact that Vancouver is a near perfect 14-2 against the money line making 12.5 units per one unit wagered when playing with three or more days rest over the last two seasons; 37-15 against the money line making 13.0 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Currently, Vancouver is lined at -165 at The Greek to win the series. 

Vancouver gave us the win in Game 1 with a 3-2 OT triumph.

Game situations and pick for Game 2

I like the Vancouver Canucks in Game 2 of the Western Conference Final.  My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a high probability that Vancouver will take a commanding two games to none lead in this best-of-seven series tonight.

The media has pressed the goal tending issues of both teams. The Canucks Luongo made a huge mistake turning the puck over and allowing the first goal of then game. Still, he did an excellent job working behind his own net and setting up his teammates for relatively easy transitions out of their own zone. The Sharks Niemi has never lost a series sporting a perfect 6-0 mark. That is a great record but he has never faced as strong a team as Vancouver, who ranked best in offensive and defensive scoring in the regular season. 

Vancouver comes into this game sporting a 40-15 record against the money line making 14.9 units per one unit wagered after one or more consecutive ‘unders’ this season; 33-14 against the money line making 11.9 units per one unit wagered after two or more consecutive ‘unders’ over the last two seasons; 23-7 against the money line making 10.7 units per one unit wagered after having won three of their previous four games this season.

I believe that the Canucks net minder will use the doubting media as strong motivation for the remainder of the playoffs and prove them wrong. He did win the Olympic Gold medal for Team Canada and although this is his first conference final he does have vast international experience. His teammates have circled the wagons around him and stated their highest confidence in his goal tending abilities. So, if anything the media doubters have brought the Canucks even closer together and that might be just what they need to play at their peak level. 

Game 3 simulations and predictions

I like the Vancouver Canucks as they take on the San Jose Sharks in Game 3 of the Western Conference Final. It took a few series and few close calls, but Vancouver is now playing at the levels I had expected from the start of the playoffs. They lead this series two games to none and I see no possibility that San Jose will win four of the remaining five games of this series.  

Vancouver had the best offensive and defensive scoring units in the NHL during the regular season. The offense went into high gear in game 2 dominated the Sharks 7-3 in what is a very demoralizing loss for the Sharks. The Sharks goal tender Niemi is 6-0 in playoff series, but it will soon be a 6-1 record. Even an elite goal tender like he will be rattled completely after a 7-3 drubbing.  

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Vancouver will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 81-44 making 49 units per one unit wagered since 1996.

Play against home teams when the money line is -100 to -150 and is a good team outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals per game and after playing a game where nine or more total goals were scored. This system has gone an impressive 15-3 making 14.1 units per one unit wagered over the past three seasons. 

Here is a second system that has produced a 39-21 mark making 18.8 units per one unit wagered since 1996. Play against any team against the money line as a No. 2 seed in the playoffs and in the third game of a playoff series. 

David Lawrence also provided his free NHL pick in favor of the Canucks tonight, and at the moment they seem to be playing the best hockey out of the remaining four teams. While San Jose is favored at the sportsbooks, and arguments have been presented in their favor, we are sticking with the Canucks tonight.

Game 3 Pick: Vancouver Canunks

Game 4 simulations and predictions

5* graded play ‘UNDER’ in Game 4 of the NHl Western Conference Final between Vancouver and San Jose set to start at 3:05 PM ET. This game is taking place at 12:05 PM ET local time at the HP Pavilion in San Jose California. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than five goals will be scored in this game.  

Vancouver was up two games to none in the best-of-seven series and they met a desperate Sharks team that played arguably their best two period of hockey all season. However, with the game all, but decided with a 4-1 lead in the third period Vancouver showed why they were the best team during the regular season scoring two goals and have numerous scoring opportunities in the final minutes.  

Based on how that third period unfolded and given that San Jose is down 2-1 in games they will be forced to play a conservative offensive scheme and must positively minimize mistakes in their own end of the ice.

I strongly believe that Vancouver will do the same and look to exploit any San Jose mistakes to produce scoring opportunities. Being down in the series, San Jose can not afford to fall behind in this game early on. This will lead to the majority of the action taking place between the blue lines. 

The Canucks will not feel as much pressure as the Sharks, being that they still hold a one game lead in the series. David Lawrence predicts them to grab another win here today as they do not find themselves in such a "do or die" situation.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 1131-861 for 56.8% winners and has made a remarkable 152.3 units per one unit wagered since 1996.

Play ‘under’ with home teams where the total is 5.5 that are off a win or tie in their previous game and is a tired team playing their third game in five days. Moreover, the Sharks are 208-153 UNDER making 40.7 units per one unit wagered after playing a game where seven or more total goals were scored since 1996. take the ‘UNDER’

Free Pick: Go with the 'Under'

Game 5 predictions

I like the Vancouver Canucks as they take on the San Jose Sharks in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final set to start at 9:05 PM ET.  My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a high probability that Vancouver will win this game and move on to the Stanley Cup Final.  

As was the case on Game 4, the simulator shows a high probability that San Jose will score two or fewer goals in this game. In past games where Vancouver held their opponent to two or fewer goals they have produced a 51-8 mark making 38.3 units per one unit wagered, 129-17 mark making 109.6 units per one unit wagered spanning the past three seasons, and 445-90 mark making a whopping 379.5 units per one unit wagered since 1996. In past games where San jose has scored two or fewer goals they have posted an 11-28 record losing 32.8 units per one unit wagered this season, 31-82 mark losing 103.9 units per one unit wagered spanning the past three seasons and 118-421 mark losing a horrid 445.6 units per one unit wagered since 1996. 

Vancouver is also reinforced by several strong game situations noting they are 25-8 against the money line making 11.7 units per one unit wagered after having won three of their last four games this season; 40-16 against the money line making 15.0 units per one unit wagered after having won four or five of their last six games this season; 22-9 against the money line making 10.3 units per one unit wagered after allowing two goals or more in the third period last game over the last two seasons.

Take Vancouver.

The Eastern Conference Championship

The Boston Bruins were my pick to win the Eastern Conference Championship and I am certainly not going to change at this later date. In fact, there are even greater reasons to get down Boston to win the Championship playing against the Tamp Bay Lightning. 

The series price of Boston -135 comes very cheap and is largely attributed to significant injuries for Boston causing multiple lines to be reformed ahead of Game 1 being played at TD Bank Saturday. The most significant loss to the Bruins is arguably their best player and certainly their best all-around center in Patrice Bergeron, who suffered a concussion in Game 4 of their sweep over the Philadelphia Flyers. 

This injury has forced head coach Claud Julien to make some swift and difficult decisions that have ramifications for the entire team. He has moved rookie Tyler Seguin to the third line and this will be his first action of the playoff season. In the practice session Monday, Julian had forward Chris Kelly slotted at center replacing Bergeron and was flanked by the regular two linemates in Brad Marchard and Mark Recci. 

Kelly also has vast playoff experience too that makes this move a solid choice. He played for Ottawa, who in 2007 made a strong ‘cinderella’ run only to lose in the Stanley Cup final to the Anaheim Ducks. I strongly believe that this new number one lie will be highly effective against Tampa’s defense and will perform above current expectations. 

Playoff stats and rankings

During the regular season Boston ranked fifth in scoring offense averaging 2.98 goals per game and ranked second best in scoring defense allowing 2.30 goals per game. By comparison, the Bolts ranked tied for seventh in scoring offense averaging 2.94 goals per game and ranked 21st in scoring defense allowing 2.85 goals per game. 

The playoffs have seen both teams play 11 games each and have both have allowed just 2.18 goals per game ranking best in the NHL playoffs. Tampa bay has gotten the offense into high gear and rank best averaging 3.45 goals per game. 

The Boston defense is far superior than Tampa’s last two opponents in the Penguins and the Capitals. Over all, the Bolts have won seven straight games and this has heightened the public band wagon affect on the betting lines for Game 1 and the series. This is exactly why Boston is coming so cheap and why I positively like Boston in Game 1 and to win the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Supporting system for Boston in Game 1

Supporting my play on Boston for Game 1 is a proven money making system that has produced a 29-11 record and has made 17 units for 73% winners since 2005. Play against road teams against the money line that are off two consecutive wins against division rivals and is a well rested team playing five or less games in 14 days.

Moreover, Boston head coach Claude Julien is a rock solid  17-5 against the money line making 10.0 units per one unit wagered when playing three or less games in 10 days. Take Boston in game 1 and for the Series. 

Game 2 between the Bruins and the Lightning

Just like Craig Tattan and his pick, I like the Boston Bruins as they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference NHL semifinal.  

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a high probability that Boston will win this game and supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-5 for 86% winners since 2005. 

Play on home teams when the betting odds money line is -100 to -150 after allowing 2 goals or more in the third period last game and when facing an opponent after scoring 3 goals or more in 5 straight games. 

Game 1 was dominated by the Lightning, but I see this game going the complete opposite and it will be dominated by the Boston Bruins defense. Tampa Bay is just 8-17 against the money line (-12.7 Units) after a blowout win by 3 goals or more over the last 2 seasons; 13-4 against the money line (+8.3 Units) against good passing teams that averaging 5 or more assists per game in the 2nd half of the year this season. 

Again, the Boston defense will play extremely well and their abilities to play a punishing type of game will negate the Lightning offensive attack and speed. 

NHL free pick: Take the Bruins.

Game 3

In conjunction to Craig Tattan's pick, I like the Boston Bruins to win Game 3. Boston did not play as well on the defensive side as I had thought, but they got the win nonetheless. Heading to Tampa for game 3 they now have the positive momentum that will earn them another win and a two-games-to-one lead in this best-of seven-series. 

My simulator shows a high probability that the +120 under dog Bruins will get the job done. This play is further strengthened by a system that has produced a 37-12 record for 76% winners making 28.6 units in profits per one unit wagered since 2005.

Play against home teams when the money line is -100 to -150 that is a good offensive team scoring 2.85+ goals per game on the season with the game taking place in the second half of the regular season or the the playoff rounds and after a game where both teams scored four goals or more.  This system has gone a near perfect 9-1 making 9.4 units per one unit wagered this season. 

There are several game situations supporting this play and I will present just a few. Boston is a solid 17-8 against the money line making 8.8 units in road games off a win or tie in their previous game this season; 11-5 against the money line making 7.4 units per one unit wagered as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.  

One strategy I do believe you will see Boston implement in this game is a technique called 'gapping up'. Boston will defend the red line first instead of waiting till the Lightning attackers hit the blue line. This technique worked well in slowing down the Washington Capitals and their scoring star Ovechkin.

Boston has the personnel to implement this defensive scheme and it may surprise the Lightning. High powered offenses find it extremely difficult to adjust to this scheme, especially if Boston does not use it for every shift.

Game 3 Free Pick: Go with the Bruins

Game 4 predictions and situations

Play on the Boston Bruins as they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 4 of the Easter Conference Final. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Boston will win this game and take a commanding three games to none advantage in this best-of-seven series.  

Boston’s net minder Tim Thomas returned to his top form stopping all 31 Lightning shots in Game 3 as the Bruins won 2-0. Although the media gave him all the credit, it was his teammates up front that slowed down and contained the firepower of the Lightning offense.

I had mentioned in the Game 3 research report that I strongly believed that Boston would ‘gap up’ on the Lightning and they did with success. By attacked the puck handler at the red line instead of waiting till the attackers hit the Blue Line the Bruins were able to ‘gap-up’ and disrupt the majority of scoring plays. 

Tim Thomas, who is the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s best goal tender, did have some incredible saves, especially in the first period when Boston was leading 1-0. The Lightning had 15 shots on gaol in the third period and nearly all of them were without screens and Thomas could line up not just the save, but anticipate if there would be a Lightning attacker looking for a rebound.  

I fully expect more of this defensive scheme in game 4. Moreover, the Bruins are leading this series and do not have to press on offense. They can choose to look to exploit the Lightning mistakes and create 2-on-1 and 3-on-2 situations in transition. 

All season the Bruins have played well against teams like the Lightning noting they are a solid 15-4 against the money line making 10.3 units per one unit wagered against good passing teams averaging five or more assists per game in the second half of this season.

Craig Tattan has provided his free NHL pick in favor of the Bruins as well. While they are up 2-1 in this series, they did allow a high number of goals. Both Craig and I see Tim Thomas returning to his form and the Boston defense stepping it up tonight, and from here on out in this series.

My Pick for Game 4: Take Boston 

Game 5 predictions and situations

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a high probability that the Bruins will win this pivotable game and take command of the series and this is backed up by Craig Tattans analysis and pick once again.  

The Bruins will look to recover from a blown opportunity in game 4 where they led 3-0 after one period of play. History tells us that there are teams who never recover from a lost opportunity and it continues to haunt them in a distracting manner for the remainder of the series. There are other teams that put the experience behind them and move forward and those are the teams that win Championships. I strongly believe the character of the Boston Bruins is strong and resilient and they will play to full potential tonight.  

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 146-66 making 53 units per one unit wagered since 1996. Play against road dogs of between +100 to +200 in the NHL lines, and is a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games and is a tired team playing their 3rd game in 5 days.  

The simulator shows a high probability that Boston will score a minimum of four goals in this game. In past games where they have scored four goals they are a perfect 11-0 making 11.2 units per one unit wagered this season, 43-4 making 39 units per one unit wagered spanning the past three seasons, and 158-39 making 131 units per one unit wagered since 1996. When allowing four goals in past games Tampa bay is 2-11 losing 11.8 units per one unit wagered this season, 5-39 losing 38.6 units per one unit wagered the past three seasons, and 23-163 losing 152 units per one unit wagered since 1996. Take the Boston Bruins.

Game 6

5* graded play on the Boston Bruins as they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals set to start at 8:05 PM ET. 

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Boston will win this game and clinch the series four games to two and advance to the Stanley Cup Finals to face the Western Conference Champion Vancouver Canucks.  

Boston is just one game away from making their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in 21 years after defeating Tampa Bay in Game 5 by a 3-1 score. This was a dominating performance and cam after Boston blew a 3-0 first period lead in Game 4 that with a win would have taken full control of the series. Their resiliency is significant and they now have all the momentum while all the pressure of being eliminated falls on the shoulders of the Lightning players.  

Lightnings coach Guy Boucher has already named his goal tender for this elimination game and it is no surprise that he is going with the 41-year old veteran Dwayne Roloson. Boucher had also pulled the veteran from two pervious games in this series  stating that he felt that his goalie needed a breather. Well, there will be no time for that maneuver tonight and I strongly believe this is the wrong move to make. 

Boston has proven now they can contain the Lightning offense. I described the technique of ‘gapping up’ in previous games as a defensive technique the Bruins would be able to implement with consistent success. This technique made an immeasurable impact in game 5 and I have no doubt that the Bruins will contain the Lightning offense with the same strategy picking their spots and disrupting the Lightning offensive flow.  

Claud Julien is a solid 65-45 against the money line making 25.0 units per one unit wagered in a road game where where the total is 5.5 as the coach of the Bruins.

I am in agreement with Craig Tattan again, and see the Bruins sealing the deal here with the win tonight.

My Pick: Take Boston here