From sixteen we get eight and the 2011 NHL playoffs get to the conference semis.
Reviewing my bet recommendations I went 5-3 winning with the Philadelphia Flyers, the Vancouver Canucks, the Detroit Red Wings, the San Jose Sharks, and the Boston Bruins. I lost my big upset pick with the New York Rangers as the Washington Capitals defeated them at their own defensive game. I also lost with the Anaheim Ducks losing in seven games to the Nashville Predators and the Pittsburgh Penguins losing in seven games to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
I really under estimated the defensive game plan that Washington used in containing the Rangers offense. The technique called ‘gapping up’ was very successful against the Capitals and Ovechkin this season. Problem was that I never saw Washington using the same strategy and with such great results. I do think this a trend that will become more prevalent in every matchup in the conference semifinals.
Western Conference Semifinals
The Nashville Predators versus the Vancouver Canucks
The Vancouver Canucks were pushed to the limits playing against the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks, but this seasoning will pay off in this matchup against the Nashville Predators. I like Vancouver a lot to easily advance to the Conference final.
The Predators made it through the first round and in the process they won the franchise’s first ever playoff series. They also won a crucial Game 5 for the first time in history and won their first playoff game in overtime. Certainly steps in the right direction for this franchise, but they now have to face the best team in the Western Conference. Many times, a team needs to take steps each year reaching further into the playoffs and gaining the necessary experience to get to the Stanley Cup and then win it. I do believe Nashville is headed in that direction.
Vancouver ranks first in scoring offense, averaging 3.15 goals per game in the regular season. They ranked best in scoring defense allowing just 2.20 goals per game in regular season games. Nashville is going to have trouble scoring goals in this series. In past games where Vancouver allowed two or fewer goals they have posted a 45-7 record making 34.5 units per one unit wagered this season, 123-16 record, making 105.8 units per one unit wagered, and 439-89 record, making 375.7 units per one unit wagered dating back to the 1996 season. Not surprising Nashville has posted just nasty numbers when they score two or fewer goals in a game with a 3-32 record, losing 33.4 units per one unit wagered this season, 21-94 record losing 82.8 units per one unit wagered, and posting a 77-384 mark losing 346.1 units per one unit wagered since 1996.
The Canucks got off to a good start taking a 1-0 win in game one when installed as a -199 favorite on the NHL odds board.
San Jose Sharks versus the Detroit Red Wings
The second semifinal NHL matchup is one that has the potential to go seven games and features the Detroit Red Wings facing the San Jose Sharks. Last year the Red Wings were just coming off an extremely physical series against the Phoenix Coyotes and then had just two days to face the San Jose Sharks, who had eliminated the Colorado Avalanche in six games and have four days of rest. The Sharks benefitted from that extra rest and got off to a 3-0 lead and won Game one 4-3 and eliminated the Red Wings in five games.
This year is a complete opposite with Red Wings coach Mike Babcock worried more about being rusty entering Game 1. I strongly believe that the rest best serves Detroit as they had a large number of injuries to several key players. The extended rest has allowed those players to heal and Detroit will be at full strength for Game 1 Friday night.
A supporting system for Detroit
I like Detroit in this series and revenge is one of the factors. For Game 1 Friday night here is a supporting system that has produced a solid 31-10 record for 76% winners and has made 22 units in profits per one unit wagered since 1996.
Play on road teams against the money line after six or more consecutive overs and is a team that is outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals per game with the game taking place in the second half of the season and playoff rounds. The Red Wings have had six straight ‘over’ games and nine of the past 10 games. This reflects the strength of their offense and the added rest will only serve to make the offense even more dominating.
Eastern Conference Semifinals
Boston Bruins versus the Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers and Bruins met in last year’s semifinal and they will be hard pressed to repeat the historic results of that series. Last year, the Philadalphia Flyers fell behind three games to none and then battled back to even the series at three games a piece with some of the most exciting and historic moments in NHL playoff history. The Flyers entered Game 7 and fell behind 3-0, but rallied in dramatic fashion to win the game and the series.
The bad news for both franchises is that they are coming off seven game series. Since 2003 there have been 15 series to be decided by a Game 7 and only one of those teams made it to the finals and no team won the Stanley Cup if they had played a seven game series. This matchup could be another seven game series as well and the fatigue factor would be too hard to overcome for either of these team in the conference final. So, my original Boston Bruins bet to win the conference final is in some trouble.
**Update**
The Philadelphia Flyers are flying home. The Boston Bruins swept the series outscoring the Flyers 20-10. This can be credited to the stellar performance of goalie Tim Thomas. So the boys from Bean Town advance
High scoring series
I strongly believe this is a series to play the ‘over’ in each of the games. There is one dominant reason why and is focused on the forwards for both teams. The Flyers and Bruins got at least one goal from eight different forwards in their seven game series.
Of the Flyers eight forwards to have at least one goal, none of them were named Mike Richards or Kris Versteeg. Arguably, the Flyers have ten defensemen who can score and that will be nearly impossible for the Bruins to defend for 60 minutes. The same can be said for the Bruins as Chris Kelly led the team with six points and his line with Rich Peverley and Michael Ryder was great at both ends of the ice posting a plus-10 rating.
I like the Bruins and consider the ‘OVER’ in each of the games.
Tampa Bay Lightning versus the Washington Capitals
The Washington Capitals will have the easiest of all the semifinal matchups and I see the Capitals winning this series in five games.
Tampa Bay ranked tied for 21st in scoring defense, allowing 2.85 goals per game during the regular season. As mentioned previously the defensive technique of ‘gapping up’ worked very well against Washington. However, you need the personnel and depth to succeed at defending the red line first and I don’t see Tampa Bay having the depth to contain Ovechkin and the Washington offense for 60 minutes.
Moreover, Washington posted the fourth best scoring defense during the regular season allowing just 2.33 goals per game. Washington showed their defensive intensity against the Rangers and I don’t see Tampa Bay as a better team than the Rangers. Washington can choose to play strong defense and look to exploit Tamp Bay mistakes in transition situations.
Tampa bay has a strong power play unit, but Washington ranked 14th in fewest penalty minutes this season. So, Washington will be disciplined on defense and allow Tamp Bay a minimum of power play scoring opportunities. The Capitals do not have to press at either end of the ice knowing they have the vastly superior defense.
Supporting Washington to win this series is the fact that they are a solid 13-3 against the money line making 10.6 units per one unit wagered when facing explosive offensive teams scoring 3 or more goals per game with the game taking place in the second half of the season spanning the last two seasons; 15-4 against the money line making 11.6 units per one unit wagered when facing good passing teams averaging five or more assists per game in the second half of the season spanning the last two seasons.