The Chicago Blackhawks say that they knew Marian Hossa was injured when they signed him to a massive 12-year contract this offseason; but it came as news to most of the league's fans when it was reported that he would need surgery on his shoulder and wouldn't see action until November at the earliest. How did this affect the Blackhawks odds? Also, are the LA Kings and San Jose Sharks worth taking a look at?
The Chicago Blackhawks losing superstar Marian Hossa for the first few months of the season reminds me quite a bit of the New York Yankees losing Alex Rodriguez to start of 2009.
In both cases you have a team that is favored to do some serious damage this year, and one of the teams getting the lowest odds to win it all. Of course this was truer of the Yankees, who were the favorite to win it all, and had a season win total over/under in the high 90s.
The big difference, though, is how little bookmakers seem to care about NHL futures. When is was reported that ARod would be missing a month to start the season, the bookmakers immediately made changes to the lines, shaving a few wins off of the total, adding a few points to the world series and division titles, and adjusting the rest of the division and the league accordingly as well.
I already liked the Blackhawks in the +900 range, so when I saw that Marian Hossa was going to miss a month (or more) of regular season action recovering from offseason surgery, I thought that we’d see that number spike up. After all, the Blackhawks finished only eight points behind the Red Wings in the Central Division last year; and this year Hossa is on their side. It seemed possible that the Blackhawks could make a push for the division title, which looks a lot less likely now. No division title means more games on the road in the post season.
But alas, the Blackhawks can still be found at +900. I still think that’s an okay bet, as they will definitely make the playoffs and have plenty of depth even without Hossa; but instead of getting it discounted which would have been nice, we have to settle for what is now not as nice a line as it was before this news came out.
Los Angeles Kings +7000 to win the Stanley Cup (5dimes)
I wrote an article before the draft talking about how the Kings were a great bet at +6000 or better, because of the fact that without making any moves they were still capable of making the playoffs, but they were likely to make some sort of a splash via free agency or trade to add a scorer that would put them over the top, and when they did, you wouldn’t see a line as good as +6000 anymore.
The Kings made that move; they added Ryan Smyth, who will fit in perfectly as a mentor for the Kings’ young players and a contributing second line left winger. Many NHL pundits are predicting this may be the year that the Kings break their playoff slump.
But once again, bookmakers are completely caught sleeping at the wheel. If a football or basketball team had made a trade like this, the future odds would have shifted that day; but in hockey they just leave these things on the board. 70 to 1 on a team being picked to be very competitive for a playoff spot is just begging for a wager
San Jose Sharks +850 to win the Stanley Cup (5dimes)
Just a quick note to end on. Word has it that the Sharks are exploring a trade for the Ottawa Senators’ Dany Heatley. Such a trade would give the Sharks one of the best snipers in the game. Combined with one of the best playmakers in the game in Joe Thornton, this would give the Sharks and even more lethal offense than they had last year.
While bookmakers haven’t really seemed to let the offseason affect their future lines that much, having one of the NHL’s top goal scorers head to a team that was first place in the West last season might be a bit hard to ignore. I personally wouldn’t bet on the Sharks at this price with the way they tend to fold in the playoffs, but if you were considering doing so, I’d go get that ticket now before a potential blockbuster trade goes down.