Having called each of the series in round 1 of the Western Conference quarterfinals, let's keep the ball rolling as we take a closer look at the two semifinals matchups in the west.
The NHL matchups for the Western Conference semifinals round are set, and they include two unexpected entrants, the LA Kings and the Pheonix Coyotes. Let's take an in-depth look at the two series in question and decide which matchups hold the best NHL betting values. Here's a look at each of the matchups and our NHL picks for the series results.
The Los Angeles Kings (8)
vs St Louis Blues (2)
What you need to know:
St Louis Blues: When you look at a team like the Blues, the
devil is in the details. Standard stats
are great for regular season purposes, but come playoff time we need to dig a
little deeper into the advanced stats. For instance, many might question Backes’ play in round 1 with his -3
rating, but in a largely checking role he put up six takeaways and 57% in the
faceoff dot. Berglund and McDonald led
the team in points for round 1, but this team is so deep with quality forwards
that you can bet other guys will lead the way in round 2. Perron, Oshie, and Steen are names to keep an
eye on.
Then we have the supporting cast. Nichol had 17 hits and was 59% in faceoffs in
round 1. Polak had 15 hits and 13
blocked shots. Sobotka had 12 hits and
was 63% in faceoffs. In fact, including
McDonald, St Louis dominated in faceoffs with none of their top 4 finishing
with less than 57%. What that means is
they control the puck for the majority of the game. It also means that they avert scoring chances
and create opportunities deep in the zone in key situations. One of the reasons why it is going to be
hard to beat St. Louis four times is because the Kings will be chasing the puck
a lot. When it comes to winning close
games, not many teams in the league did a better job than the Blues this
year—and these peripheral stats tell the story.
Los Angeles Kings:
The simple explanation as to how the Kings upset the President’s Trophy winning
Canucks is easy—their star players stepped up and produced. Brown led the way with 4 goals, 21 hits, and
7 takeaways. Richards frustrated the
Canucks and played a physical game tallying 18 hits. Kopitar provided two-way play and was a
factor in every game. Greene (21 hits)
and Mitchell (25 blocked shots) were beasts on the back end. Doughty and Voynov excelled in the transition
game and maintained pressure in the offensive zone. Stoll was their best faceoff guy (58%) and scored
the series clinching goal.
But where does LA have the edge? The short answer is nowhere. What the Kings do have going for them, though, is that
they match up pretty evenly across the board and will be able to play without
much pressure to win. Taking out a team
like the Canucks is certainly going to instill a strong sense of belief, but St
Louis is a whole new animal. For the
Kings to pull off another upset, Quick is going to have to once again steal the show. I’m just not sure that’s going to be enough
this time.
Bottom Line: Given
how evenly these teams match up, special teams are going to be key. If you’ve been doing your homework, you’ll
know that St Louis was 6-18 for a 33% conversion rate on the PP in round
1. That is much better than LA was as
they went 3-26 vs Vancouver. As much as I’d like to say that there is value
with LA, I think St Louis have too much quality depth up front and a better
coach behind the bench to fall short here. Road teams have done well these playoffs, but I think home ice will count
for something in this series. Look for
an alternative series line for additional value.
Prediction: STL -1
(-112)
Nashville Predators
(4) vs Phoenix Coyotes (3)
What you need to know:
DOAN.jpg "Phoenix Coyotes")
Phoenix Coyotes: The ‘Yotes enter round 2 as the favorite based
on seed, but the entire hockey world (including the NHL odds makers) have them
as the underdog for the second straight series. I thought they were undervalued in round 1 thanks in large part to the
edge in goaltending, but they won’t have any advantages against the Nashville
Predators.
Smith and Tippett match up well respectively with Rinne and
Trotz, but after that things get very questionable for this Phoenix team. They lag behind in the motivation and
expectation department. This is the
first time the Coyotes have made it to the 2nd round and they could
suffer an emotional letdown after “upsetting” Chicago and battling out 5
overtime games. The only game that they
won convincingly on the scoresheet was game 6, but they were badly outplayed on
the ice.
Guys like Vermette and Yandle led the team in scoring in
round 1 and players like Morris (24 blocked shots), Gordon (57% in faceoffs)
and Doan (31 hits, 9 takeaways) were the difference makers in the
trenches. Where did Whitney and Vrbata
go? Chicago isn’t a top tier defensive
team and probably had the worst goaltending in the West. This team is strong as a group, but
game-changers are few and far between.
Nashville Predators: I not only like the Preds to win this series,
but I still expect them to reach the finals and potentially win the cup this
year. If they do continue to advance, I
will begin to sound like a broken record because there is a lot to like about the
makeup of this squad. To start with,
there wasn’t the same kind of jubilation when they ousted their arch-rival Red
Wings in 5 games last week. The
emotional high of reaching round 2 happened last year. This season the team expects to advance deep
in the playoffs. I believe this mindset
is going to pay dividends as this series unfolds.
With another tight-checking matchup in the West, special
teams will be the obvious area under the microscope. The numbers didn’t reflect what we saw in the
regular season, but make no mistake about it—Nashville hold a significant edge
on the power play. Ekman-Larsson might
be enjoying a breakout season for Phoenix, but he is not Shea Weber or Ryan
Suter. These twin towers are another big advantage for the Predators. Look for them
to become more of an offensive threat because they won’t be as focused on
shutting anyone down like they were vs Detroit. Josi and Klein also stepped up in round 1
with 11 blocked shots each and some spark on offense.
And speaking of offense, this is where I anticipate the Predators
running away with things. They might not
have the high end skill of a Chicago, but Hornqvist, Andrei/Sergei Kostitsyn,
Erat, Fisher, Bourque, Legwand, Spaling, and Radulov make up three strong lines
to contend with on a shift-to-shift basis.
Radulov in particular was a big key to their 1st round
win. He not only led the team in
points, but he was also +5 and a workhorse in the hustle department. Gaustad led the way on the penalty kill and
finished 55% on faceoffs.
Bottom Line:
Mike Smith is going to keep this series a lot closer than it should be,
but in the end the Predators are too deep for Phoenix. Nashville doesn’t have exploitable weaknesses
like Chicago had. In one game, this is a
coin flip. In a 7 game series, the cream
will rise to the top. Like St Louis,
shop around for an alternative series line for value.
Prediction: NSH -1
(-120)
Be sure not to miss our article on second round trends.