With the NHL season less then a month away, some bettors will be tempted to attempt to navigate the murky waters of preseason pucks to get back into the swing of things. While it is a difficult task trying to figure out the preseason, some teams have done consistantly well in the post-lock out era, such as the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators. And some - like the Phoenix Coyotes - couldn't have done much worse.
Capping the NHL preseason isn’t quite like the NFL, where you can focus on the depth chart and get a feel for what teams will be trying to do to get prepared for the regular season. There are definitely position battles taking place during the preseason in hockey, too, but they aren’t as pronounced, especially from a cappers’ perspective.
As an example, I know that the Los Angeles Kings have an opening on their third line at left wing behind Alexander Frolov and Ryan Smyth. The spot will likely go to Teddy Purcell or Oscar Moller, unless someone else steps up to claim it during the preseason and training camp. But it isn’t easy for me to translate this knowledge into a good read on a particular preseason game.
Unlike the NFL, where knowing a running back battle will result in plenty of handoffs, which will probably result in an UNDER bet cashing.
As such, I figured it would be worth a look at which teams have fared the best and worst in the preseason during the post lockout era, and try to guess whether or not that trend will continue.
The Best
Detroit Red Wings: 6-3 ML last preseason, 22-14 ML 2005-2009 (.611)
Detroit has gone 6-3 in the preseason for the last three years, including an 11-4 clip at home over that span (73.3%). This is an organization that is not only stacked from top to bottom with talent, but also instills a winning attitude from day one; nothing less than taking home the Stanley Cup is an acceptable outcome for the season. A wealth of good young players with a hunger to win should continue to equate to preseason success.
San Jose Sharks: 3-4 ML last preseason, 21-8 ML 2005-2009 (.724)
After dominating in the preseason for the first three years post lockout (18-4, 81.8%), last season the Sharks cruised to a 3-4 record. It made sense in theory; last year’s group of veterans were supposed to go all the way, and the preseason was an afterthought. This year, San Jose doesn’t enter with that luxury; after another early exit in the playoffs, the Sharks have become the laughing stock of the league come playoff time. This team can’t afford to coast, even in the preseason; they need to set the tone right away, and I expect them to with a strong preseason.
Colorado Avalanche: 4-2 ML last preseason, 17-6 ML 2005-2009 (.739)
The Avalanche have not had a record worse than 4-2 in the preseason over the last four years, making them well worth a look heading into this year. Things might be different this year with a new post-Joe Sakic era on the horizon, but this is a team that is always loaded with good young talent and clearly has a propensity towards winning in the preseason.
Ottawa Senators: 4-2 ML last preseason, 22-7 ML 2005-2009 (.759)
No team has been better than the Ottawa Senators during the preseason over the last four years. It is hard to gauge what type of effect the Heatley debacle will have on this team’s performance, but they will likely be happy to just get back out there and play some hockey, and keep their winning ways going.
The Worst
Toronto Maple Leafs: 3-4 ML last preseason, 11-21 ML 2005-2009 (.344)
I’m actually expecting this one to turn around. Brian Burke has brought a winning attitude into Toronto, and what better place to start getting things turned around then the preseason? Will definitely be looking for spots to take them, especially at home.
Phoenix Coyotes: 2-6 ML last preseason, 10-21 ML 2005-2009 (.323)
A franchise in complete disarray, up for sale, and just a mess from top to bottom. There is actually plenty of young talent here; but that hasn’t helped them over the last few years, and probably won’t this year, either. Fading the Coyotes has been a virtual slam dunk over the last few seasons.
Sometimes it’s best to just take a wait and see approach as well and try and catch a hot goalie or a hot team when they get on a roll. I’ll be back about a week into the preseason with a look at who’s looking good and who isn’t, so stay tuned for that. Good luck this preseason!