Do you see a pattern forming here? In the 2010 NHL playoffs, Detroit and San Jose
met and the Sharks won Games 1 and 2 by one goal each time, then as the series
switched venues they scratched out an overtime win to take a commanding 3-0
series lead.
This year, the exact same storyline has played out as the
San Jose Sharks won each of the first two games by a goal, then stole Game 3 in
overtime as the Detroit Red Wings blew a third period lead just like last year.
In Game 4 last year the Red Wings at last made a stand
and rolled the Sharks 7-1. While the score line may be different this time
around, expect a similar result as this Red Wings team is too strong to get
swept on home ice.
The San Jose
Sharks Can Win Because…:
The Red Wings don’t have any answers.
The Sharks feel right at home playing the Red Wings as
they have dominated the last two playoff series between the teams. They feel
even better this time around as goaltender Anti Niemi is giving them a big edge
between the pipes. He’s stopped 95 of 100 shots this series and he’s outplayed
Red Wings netminder Jimmy Howard, who has continually let in key goals. Niemi
is now 8-0-1 in nine career starts against the Red Wings.
Overall, the Sharks are outworking the Red Wings and
while the story of the series prior to puck-drop was supposed to be the Red
Wings offensive depth, it has in fact been the Sharks offense that is making
the difference. Even though Devin Setoguchi notched a hat trick in Game 3, six
different Sharks have scored the eight goals they’ve claimed in this series.
The Red Wings penalty kill has been a sore spot all
season long and the Sharks have exposed it even more this series. The Sharks
have four goals on 15 man-advantages, and it’s given them a real boost.
As long as they can continue to outwork the Red Wings and
keep their forwards away from the front of the net, this series could end on
Friday.
The Detroit Red
Wings Can Win Because…:
They finally put forth a good, honest effort in Game 3.
After a lazy Game 1 and a sloppy Game 2, the Red Wings
were actually in it in Game 3 and they finally played with a lead. They know
that they need to bring an even better effort in Game 4 but at least they know
they are capable of it and they know what needs to be done.
The Red Wings are a veteran team and they aren’t likely
to quit on the job in this spot – especially at home.
They did a lot of things right in Game 3 as they played
more in the offensive zone, they put more pressure on the Sharks blue line and
they were even able to rough up goaltender Anti Niemi a bit. They just need to
rinse and repeat for Game 4 and play a little bit better down the stretch,
where they were outshot 16-8.
The good news is that the Red Wings haven’t lost by more
than a goal in any game and they haven’t received much help from their physical
forwards like Johan Franzen, Todd Bertuzzi and Dan Cleary. If the Red Wings can
get this trio to bruise up the Sharks defense in Game 3, there will be a light
at the end of the tunnel and likely a victory as well.
Outlook & NHL
Betting Prediction:
Game 4 should play out like it did last year. The Sharks
are in the driver’s seat in this series and it’s unlikely the Red Wings lose
four straight. The Sharks won’t let up but they won’t have the same type of
urgency they’ve had in the other three games. At the same time, the Red Wings
will bring their best effort of the series to stay alive.
The NHL odds makers have the Red Wings at -140 and I am
taking them to at least get on the board in this series and avoid a sweep. They
are too good of a team to go down without making a mark.
Pick: Red Wings