Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins series betting preview

Most NHL bettors would have made a pretty penny if they put their money on an improbable comeback.  The second round featured even more surprises for these finalists.   There were some that thought the Tampa Bay Lightning would push the Washington Capitals to the brink, but did anybody bank on a sweep of the top seed?  The same can be said of the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers series.  It appeared like Chris Pronger was back and another long series was in store.  Now, both teams are on a roll and face off in what should be another intriguing matchup.  Let’s break it down and see who has the edge.

Forwards

Entering the playoffs, most would agree that the Bruins held a significant advantage up front.  Lucic was on fire, Kreji was a threat in any situation, and Horton provided depth that the team didn’t have last season.   They acquired a bona fide checking center in Chris Kelly and picked up upstart Rich Peverley from the Thrashers.  However, what was supposed to be a strength has been put into serious question after Patrice Bergeron went down with a concussion in round two—the third of his career.   Reports say that he will be back, but you can’t trust any information at this time of year—especially when it comes to head injuries.   Bergeron was Boston’s best two-way player and his loss could prove pivotal in what could be a long series.  

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay boasts some of the most dangerous and feared offensive threats in the league today.  Stamkos hasn’t had the kind of breakout post-season that many expected, but he’s practicing full time which means he’s healthy—and should be considered a lethal option.   St. Louis is a Hart Trophy finalist and leads this team both on and off the ice.   Along with Lecavalier, this trio has inflicted serious damage on opposing netminders this year.   Throw in the emergence of Bergenheim and this forward group has multiple lines that can light the lamp.   Role players like Malone, Moore, and Downie give the Lightning a multitude of options for coach Boucher to play with.   The secondary lines are a wash, but the Bruins cannot match the level of high end talent on this team.   Edge: Lightning.

Defense

What was supposed to be one of the Lightning’s weaknesses has turned out to be a strength this post-season.   GM Steve Yzerman picked up Eric Brewer from the Blues during the season and he’s been nothing but a monumental rock on the back end.   Ohlund provides steady all-around play and rising superstar Victor Hedman is living up to his hype.   Expect to see a lot of Ohlund/Brewer versus the Bruins top line and they should be able to contain this threat much better than the Philadelphia Flyers did.  Boucher has done a great job juggling the responsibilities of these rearguards so if there is a matchup problem early in the series, tweaks will be made as the series unfolds.

Yet, what the Lightning doesn’t have is a Norris Trophy candidate like Zdeno Chara.   Together with Seidenberg, this dynamic duo will see loads of ice time against Tampa’s big guns.  The winner of this matchup will go a long way in determining the outcome of this series.   Beyond these two, things get a little bit more questionable.   Ference and Boychuk are ok as a second pairing, but they aren’t going to strike fear into any of the Tampa players.   Beyond them are even more question marks.   Don’t be surprised if coach Julian relies heavily on his top four late in games.    Tomas Kaberle has been a major disappointment since his acquisition and doesn’t play anywhere near his regular ice time anymore.  Edge: None.

Goalies

It might be hard to believe, but Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson has played as well as, if not better, than Tim Thomas this post-season.  That is quite the feat considering Thomas is a shoe-in for the Vezina Trophy.   One of the main reasons not many people had Tampa going this far is due to the questions they had in goal.  Yet it appears, like Thomas, he has exercised his playoff demons and Roloson is making the most of his opportunity.   But keep in mind that despite Roloson’s age, he doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear on his body.   He should be fresh and ready to go head to head with the league’s best.  Edge: None.

Special Teams

Does this section require a lot of time?  Boston have been brutal on the power play for two rounds and Tampa have one of the best penalty killing units (94%) led by Adam Hall.   This is a key area that the Bruins will miss Bergeron.   Unless Boston get a lot of 5 on 3 opportunities, temper your expectations with the man advantage.   Meanwhile, the Lightning enter the series red hot on the power play and the Bruins have their work cut out for them if they expect to advance based on 5 on 5 play.  Edge: Lightning.

Key Matchup

Coaching.   Claude Julien isn’t on his first trip to the rodeo here.  He’s an experienced guy on the bench and he’s seen a lot of different situations.   At the same time, he’s also watched his team have inexplicable dips in play in the last couple of playoff seasons.   This is a team that either goes in the tank or gets on a roll and now he will have to perform new magic with his forward lines now that Bergeron is out.

On the other side of the coin we have first year coach Guy Boucher.  He was heavily recruited by Yzerman in the offseason and now we see why.  This psychology wizard has been simply remarkable this year and there is little doubt that he will be ready for this series.   Many of the media mistakenly think that he blindly runs a 1-3-1 system, but a closer look reveals that he alters his strategy depending on the situation in the game and the series.  Sometimes he employs a more aggressive approach in the upper third of the ice or he stifles the attack in the neutral zone.  You just never know what he has up his sleeve and he preaches learning from your mistakes each and every game.  Edge: Lightning.

Conclusion

The NHL playoffs are a different animal when it comes to sports betting.  Pucklines are a fruitless endeavor and favorites are overpriced.   You must dig deeper to find consistent value and pick your spots.   Changing methods on the fly is mandatory as injuries and momentum mount up.   The good news is that underdogs can be a windfall if you know when and where to take them.  In a series such as Boston/Tampa Bay, there is tremendous value to be had with the lower seeded Lightning.  Boston might get the early jump on the Bolts due to the traditional success by home teams in the opening games of a series, but the Lightning should be able to walk away from Beantown with a split on their way to a series win.   Right now 56% of the public is siding with the Bruins, but that will create friendlier NHL odds for the rest of us.  Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning.