The Stanley Cup finals have taken many twists and turns.
After two games, the Vancouver Canucks looked like they might capture the mug
in four or five games. After Games 3 and 4, it looked like Boston would have a
shot to finish in Game 6. The bottom line is we’ve been on-serve the whole
series as each team has won their home games.
With an extra day off in between games, the rest might just be
what the Canucks need to break the pattern and clinch the Stanley Cup to put
the sweet seal on the franchise’s 40th season.
The Vancouver
Canucks can win because…:
They now understand what pace the games need to be played
at.
Heading into the series, most people – including the
Canucks themselves – figured that if the games were to be shootouts, it would
benefit the Canucks more so than Boston. And if the games were to be
low-scoring, that would be to the benefit of Boston. That hasn’t been the case.
The scary part for the Bruins is that the Canucks have
won three games and they have yet to play their best game. The Sedin Twins have
been completely invisible, Ryan Kesler hasn’t been much of a factor, the
Canucks blue line has been in shambles because of injuries and suspensions, and
their power play hasn’t performed well.
What happens if everyone shows up for the first time in
the series? Even if the Canucks can simply get a boost from that power play,
that might be all it takes.
If you’re a betting stats junkie, you’ll be happy to know that
Vancouver has played great all season long with extra rest. They are 13-6 this
season on two-day’s rest and stretching even further back, 121-77 since 1996.
They are the best team in the NHL and if they were worn down – which they did
look at times in this series – then an extra day will be just what the doctor
ordered for them to regroup and refresh, and finally seal the deal.
The Boston Bruins can win because…:
They are back at home, where they have dominated the
series.
While the Canucks have been able to dictate the pace of
the games played at home, the Bruins have been able to do the same on their
home ice, which has allowed them to run wild in Games 3 and 4. The Bruins
outscored the Canucks 12-1 in those games, chased Roberto Luongo and never gave
the Canucks a chance to breath.
Back at home for Game 6, they have to do it all over
again.
That means goaltender Tim Thomas needs to be stellar once
again, that means that the Bruins have to be more physical and it means they
need to score the first goal of the game. In case you’re keeping track, the
team that has scored first has won all five games in this series.
The Bruins might have a little extra motivation after
Luongo lightly taunted Thomas following Game 5. While the Bruins are sure to
use his words as bulletin-board material, the fans at the TD Garden will be
even more charged up and the team will feed off of it.
Outlook & NHL betting prediction:
The Bruins don’t want to say they miss Nathan Horton, but
in many ways, they truly do.
Game 5 appeared to be a real turning point in the series
as Vancouver kept the heat on Boston all game long and had Thomas not stood on
his head – as he has all series long – the Canucks could have poured in several
more goals. In comparison, the Bruins only had a few good chances to score.
The extra day off should help the Canucks learn from
their previous mistakes in Boston. They know what the pace of the game has to
be, they know they have to keep the puck out of their own zones and they have
to make sure they aren’t getting pushed around by the Bruins.
In many ways, goaltender Roberto Luongo is kind of like
Dirk Nowitzki of the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA: they are both excellent
talents and they are (were, in Nowitzki’s case) always second-guessed.
I am going to play against Craig Tattan and on Monday, look for Luongo to lead the Canucks into
hostile territory, clinch the championship and validate his play as one of the
best goaltenders in the business. The moneyline opened at +110 and has moved already to +130 with the total held fast at 5.
Pick: Canucks
& Under