Game 7: It all comes down to this
Betting odds have already been released for tonight's do or die Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, opening with the Canucks as -170 favorites. This number has already fallen as low as -145 at 5Dimes and could continue to fall as support for the Bruins continues to mount.
With all of the attention on the Money Line and who is going to win this thing, I have decided to provide my Free NHL pick on the ‘OVER’ in Game 7.
My proprietary sports handicapping database
and simulator shows a high probability that six or more goals will be scored in
this game.
This has been a strange series despite one where the
home team has won the first six games. This Game 7 also marks an opportunity
for Boston to be the first team ever to win three Game 7’s in a single playoff
season. Home teams are 5-1 in Game 7’s this post season and 12-3 in Stanley Cup
Final Game 7’s. There have been seven Game 7’s this post season and that mark
matches the all time record established in the 1994 where ironically the NY
Rangers defeated the Vancouver Canucks in Game 7 to win the Cup.
Injuries
.jpg "Boston Bruins")
Nathan Horten scored the winning goal in both of
Boston’s Game 7 wins, but is out with a severe concussion. In Game 6
Vancouver’s Mason Raymond was awkwardly driven into the boards and suffered a
fractured vertebrae and will be out of any action for at least three months.
Vancouver's injuries continue with the loss of another defenseman in Alex Edler in the third period of Game 6
to an undisclosed injury and are already depleted at that position without the
services of Dan Hamhuis. So, with these significant injuries comes realignment
of the lines and the lack of playing time together will lead to mistakes in
communication and execution and a higher scoring game.
Both teams are going have inspirational support from
these critical injuries. Boston’s Horten made the trip to Vancouver and the
severe injury to Raymond can provide the same sort of support. Again, I think all
of this will lead to a higher scoring Game 7 then most analysts project.
Both teams Come Out Flying
The biggest factor supporting the ‘over’ is that I
strongly believe that both teams will come out flying on the offensive end and
look to score. The public opinion has always been that Game 7’s feature
cautious play where neither team wants to make that first critical mistake and
end up trailing. This being said, I feel that having the total set at 5 offers the best option for NHL bettors in tonight's game.
Supporting Game Situations
Vancouver is a solid 31-18 ‘OVER’ making 12.6 units per one unit wagered against good
offensive teams scoring 2.85 or more goals per game with the game taking place
in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.
Game 7 Pick: Take the 'Over'
**Original Article**
Vancouver was the heavy betting odds favorite in the Western Conference and
although at times they looked beatable they are the Western Conference
Champions. Boston has exorcised failed playoff runs of the past and have earned
their Eastern Conference Championship.
However, both teams have more demons to exorcise in the Finals
and a psychological element could play heavily. Vancouver has never won a Cup
since entering the league in 1970 sporting a 0-2 Finals mark losing to the New
York Islanders in 1982 and the New York Rangers in 1994. Boston is 0-5 in Cup
Finals since its last victory in 1972.
Current Series line and selection
The current series NHL line at shows Vancouver a -225 favorite
and Boston line up as a +195 dog. In my NHL playoff preview I stated that I
liked Boston to win the Eastern Conference and make a play for the cup, and I certainly stand by that prediction.
At almost 2/1 Boston offers a tremendous hockey betting opportunity.
Vancouver was the top ranked offense and defense in the NHL
during the regular season. The Canucks sputtered in many games, but now appear
to be at full strength for the Final. The Sedin twins, Daniel, and Henrik, are
playing quite well and Henrik is top in playoff scoring with 21 points.
However, Boston has a great defense to counter this, led by Zdeno Chara.
Chara is an incredible defenseman and at 6-9, 255 pounds has
handled every skillful offensive player in the league. Boston lost their first
two playoff games and made a change that arguably saved their playoff season.
They united Chara with Dennis Seidenberg and the defense has been impenetrable
ever since. I strongly believe that Chara and Seidenberg will dominate and more
than just minimize the Vancouver offense.
Boston offense
The Boston Bruins offense has picked up recently and although the
scoring is limited to the line of Nathan Horton, Tyler Seguin, and David
Krejci. I still like the matchups to favor Boston. Krejci is the team leader
with 17 playoff points and 10 goals. Horton has eight goals and Kerjci and he
combined for 18 playoff goals. Although Vancouver rotates six defensemen they
do not have the personnel to contain this line that is just getting better and
better with each passing game.
Boston’s second line is led by their best forward in Patrice
Bergeron, who combines with the 43-year old Mark Recci and Brad Marchand. It is
the last two lines that are loaded with the fastest and quickest players that I
strongly believe will create major problems for the Vancouver defense. These
lines led by Sequin will look to attack often with the purpose of making the
Vancouver defense work hard. This in turn will setup strong scoring
opportunities for the Bruins first line facing an exhausted Vancouver defense
come the third period.
.jpg "Tim Thomas for the Boston Bruins")
Goaltending
Vancouver’s Luongo is playing at a high level, but has faced a
ton of shots in the past three weeks. This reflects the fact that the Vancouver Canuck defense does have holes in it and that there are opportunities to get 3-on-2
scoring situations. San Jose proved that in the Western Conference
Championship, especially in Game 5. The Sharks had 56 shots on goal including
20 shots in 30:18 of overtime. In that game it was evident that the Vancouver
defense had lost their legs, and was not able to contain the speed and
quickness of the Sharks offense that just attacked in waves in overtime.
Boston’s No.1 line has similar characteristics to the Sharks offense and I
think you will see them simply wear down the Vancouver defense. Luongo played
the greatest game of his career in that Game 5 overtime win against the Sharks
and eventually the shot totals will take their toll on him.
Boston’s Tim Thomas is coming off a tremendous effort in Game 7
where Boston won 1-0 over Tampa Bay. He also outplayed the Lightning’s Dwayne
Roloson, who was a perfect 7-0 in elimination games to that point. Thomas has
been criticized for inconsistent play, but no one can argue the fact that he
makes the big time saves at the most critical points in the game. Right now the Canucks are 2-1 up in the poll taking place in the Hockey handicapping forum, however I don't see them lasting the distance.
Take
Boston to win the Stanley Cup
Game 1 Predictions
I like playing the ‘UNDER’ in Game 1 of the NHL Finals featuring the Boston Bruins at the Vancouver Canucks set to start at 8:05 PM ET Wednesday. My proprietary NHL handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than five goals will be scored in this game. Vancouver has home ice advantage in the series, but that certainly does not mean the Cup engraver should put Vancouver on the Trophy today.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 102-54 for 65.4% winners and has made 38.9 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play ‘under’ with home teams where the total is 5.5 goals after allowing two goals or less in two straight games facing an opponent after scoring one goal or less in their previous game.
Of the 156 games played based on the criteria of this system 48.1% or 75 of them went under the total by a minimum of one goal. Boston is coming off a 1-0 Game 7 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning and Vancouver has allowed two goals exact in each of the past two games satisfying the criteria of this system.
Here is a second system that has produced a 126-70 mark for 64.3% winners making 45.4 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play ‘under’ with road teams where the total is 5.5 and is a solid defensive team allowing 2.55 or fewer goals per game on the season and after a close win by one goal in their previous game. Of the 196 plays made based on the criteria of this system 44.4% or 87 of these plays went ‘under’ the posted total by a minimum of one goal.
Vancouver posted the best scoring offense and best scoring defense in the NHL during the regular season. Boston’s head coach Claude Julien is a master game planner defending strong offensive teams and has posted a 33-15 ‘UNDER’ record making 33.0 units per one unit wagered versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 0.5 or more goals per game.
There are numerous game situations supporting the ‘under’ play and here are two of them. Boston is a solid 29-16 ‘UNDER’ making 10.5 units per one unit wagered in road games after playing a game where three or fewer total goals were scored over the last two seasons. Vancouver is 24-15 ‘UNDER’ making 6.7 units per one unit wagered after having won two of their last three games this season.
My Game 1 Pick: Take the ‘UNDER’
Game 2
5* graded play ‘OVER’ the posted total in Game 2 of the NHL Stanley Cup Finals featuring the Vancouver Canucks hosting the Boston Bruins set to start at 8:05 PM ET.
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that six or more goals will be scored in this game.
For those of you who missed Game 1, I had called for the 'Under' (read that pick at the botton of this page) and sure enough, with only seconds left in regulation Vancouver scored to take the 1-0 win, and cashed for thosed who followed my advice.
There are a series of game situations supporting the ‘OVER’ play noting that Boston is 27-19 OVER making 8.6 units per on unit wagered against poor defensive teams allowing opponents an average 29.5 or more shots on goal in the second half of this season; 13-4 OVER making 9.0 units per one unit wagered revenging a loss where team scored one or less goals this season. Vancouver is a solid 18-8 OVER making 10.5 units when playing three or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons.
Supporting System
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 151-88 making 43.6 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play ‘over’ with road teams where the total is 5 or less after scoring two goals or less in two straight games. Of the 239 plays made based on the criteria of this system 140 or 50.5% of them went ‘over’ the posted total by one or more goals.
The Bruins have had a game-by-game mantra that has served them well this post season and I do not see them suffering any hangover effect from the emotional Game 1 loss. Boston out shot Vancouver 36-34, but the large majority of shots by both teams were not solid scoring chances.
I feel strongly that you will see both teams attack in five-on-five and odd-man rushes tonight in what will be a far more wide open game. Both teams are doing a great job at fronting pucks and that mandates an adjustment to park bodies in front of both goalies creating screens and getting rebound scoring opportunities.
It was quite evident that Vancouver was by far the faster skating team. They displayed blazing speed in the neutral zone and Boston will be able to then get out on their own odd-man transition
Game 2 Pick: Take the over
Game 3 Predictions
NHL free pick on the ‘OVER’ in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals featuring the Boston Bruins hosting the Vancouver Canucks set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a high probability that five or more goals will be scored in this game.
Supporting System
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 60-31 making 27.9 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play ‘over’ with road teams against the total after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games and is a good team winning between 60% to 70% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Of the 91 plays made based on the criteria of this system 48 of them or 50% of the plays went ‘over’ the posted total by one or more goals.
Game Situations
Both teams have favorable game situations for the ‘OVER’ to bring home the money. Boston is a solid 27-19 OVER making 8.6 units per one unit wagered against poor defensive teams allowing opponents to average 29.5 or more shots on goal in the second half of the year this season. Vancouver is 18-7 ‘OVER’ making 11.2 units per one unit wagered against good offensive teams averaging 29.5 or more shots on goal per game in the second half of the year over the last two seasons; 8-1 ‘OVER’ making 7.1 units per one unit wagered when playing three or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons; 21-12 ‘OVER’ making 8.5 units per one unit wagered after a two game unbeaten streak over the last two seasons.
Boston played the Canucks extremely tough in the first two games and with a little luck could be heading home with a 2-0 lead instead of the daunting task of overcoming a 2-0 deficit. I had identified Boston in the days before the playoffs began as my pick to win the Stanley Cup and that pick is clearly in danger of being incorrect. In the past 46 seasons there have been just four teams to overcome a 0-2 deficit and fully recover to win the Stanley Cup Finals. Boston must win four of the next five games against the Canucks, who posted the best scoring offense and scoring defense during the regular season.
What this means is that Boston can no longer use a game plan designed to defend first and then attack with the idea of shortening the game to the second half of the third period. They must attack like they did in Game 2 and take risks that will gradually lead to odd man Vancouver scoring opportunities and so just like Craig Tattan, I call for a play on the over.
My Pick: Take the Over
Game 4 Predictions and Pick
Both Craig T and David Lawrence have provided free plays in favor of the Bruins clinching the Game 4 win to tie the NHL Finals. After their Game 3 performance, this could be
My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that fewer than five goals will be scored in this game. Generally, there is a significant propensity for lower scoring after the outburst that took place in Game 3.
Vancouver posted the best scoring offense an defense in the NHL during the regular season and there is no doubt coaches will have them in a tough physical mindset after the embarrassing loss in game 3. Of course it will be emphasized to be within the rules of the game in the aftermath of the horrific collision between Boston's Nathan Horten and Vancouver's Aaron Rome.
I do not believe that Rome was intentionally trying to take Horton out of the game and it happened within a second of Horton sending a pass and Rome just not letting up. The 4-game suspension to Horten, which is the longest in Stanley Cup history, is certainly justified. Overall, the losses are significant to each team and brings to light the need for the NHL to bring new rules and/or rule changes to identify the safety factors of the modern game of hockey.
Supporting System
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced an 81-39 record for 68% winners and has made 39 units in profits per one unit wagered. Play 'under' with any team against the total that is a strong closing team that is outscoring opponents by 0.2 or more goals per game in third period with the game taking place in the second half of the season and after a blowout loss by three goals or more in their previous game.
Game Situations
Further supporting this graded play are game situations favoring the 'under'. Note that 12-4 'UNDER' making 7.7 units per one unit wagered against good defensive teams allowing 2.55 or fewer goals per game with the game taking place in the second half of this season. Boston is a solid 12-5 'UNDER' making 7.3 units per one unit wagered in home games against good defensive teams allowing 2.55 or fewer goals per game this season.
Game 4 Pick: Take the 'UNDER'.
Game 5 Preview
I like playing the ‘OVER’ in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final featuring the Vancouver Canucks hosting the Boston Bruins. The first two games were ‘normal’ Cup games, but when the series moved to Boston the unthinkable occurred with Boston winning both games by a combined 12-1 margin.
This has now become a best-of-3 series with significant questions regarding the mental and physical health of Vancouver’s net minder Roberto Luongo and Boston’s Tim Thomas. The media has taken swipes at both goal tenders in the past week. First, the Boston media hammered on Tim Thomas on his Game 2 blunder and now it is Luongo facing his own hockey judgement day.
The "Mind Game"
Vancouver coach Alain Vigneault gave Luongo the option of coming out of the Game 3 massacre, and not surprisingly Lunogo wanted to stay in the game and compete till the end. Boston scored three more goals in the final 2:21 of Game 3 and then made things even more difficult for Luongo in Game 4. From the drop of the puck Luongo appeared to be playing cautiously and without the confident presence he exhibited in the first two Games in Vancouver.
Rebounding from a poor game and returning to a venue where negative thoughts can dominate is a very difficult task for a goal tender to overcome. Goal tending is in many ways similar to a starting pitcher in MLB. They must have short memories and maintain a forward looking confident routine between games. Yet, this is the Stanley Cup and both goal tenders are being hammered with negative questions that prevent them from looking forward and being completely prepared to compete at their best level.
Simulator Projections and Game Situations
SBR handicapper Craig Tattan predicts that the Bruins will come out on top tonight in what he thinks will be a "tight checking low scoring affair." I have crunched the numbers, and I believe that this game will be anything but low scoring.
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that six or more goals will be scored in this game. Further strengthening this ‘over’ play are a series of game situations noting that Vancouver is a solid 32-18 ‘OVER’ making 12.9 units per one unit wagered when playing five or less games in 14 days over the last three seasons; 31-14 ‘OVER’ making 15.9 units per one unit wagered off an embarrassing road loss where they were shut out since 1996; 35-19 ‘OVER’ making 16.4 units per one unit wagered after playing two consecutive road games over the last two seasons.
Vancouver head coach Alain Vigneault is 10-3 ‘OVER’ making 10.0 units per one unit wagered in home games off two or more consecutive road losses.
Game 5 Pick: Take the ‘OVER’.
Game 6 preview and pick
Just like Mr Tattan, I like the Boston Bruins as they take on the Vancouver Canucks in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a high probability that Boston will win this game and send this testy series back to Vancouver for a deciding Game 7.
Vancouver has largely insulted the Bruins in this series ranging from the vicious hit by Canucks defenseman Aaron Rome on Boston’s fan favorite and winger Nathan Horton, to the alleged finger biting by Vancouver’s Alex Burrows on Boston’s Patrice Bergeron. Horton, who laid motionless on the ice with his arm stuck up in the air suffered a severe concussion ending his season. Rome's season ended too when the NHL handed down a four game suspension. Vancouver’s instigator Naxim Lapierre has been seen wiggling his fingers in the face of Bergeron.
I have to say that this is exciting theater and dwarfs the NBA Finals where the only antagonism occurred when some of the Miami Heat players mimicked Dirk’s cough due to 101 degree fever. Perhaps the Heat were not mocking him, but trying to clear their own choke.
Boston has dominated this series at both ends of the ice. The Canucks fortunately find themselves on the brink of winning the coveted Stanley Cup Trophy with three one-goal wins. Boston has won their two games on home ice by a combined score of 12-1.
History lesson
Digging in to the historical database I found some very interesting results. The NHL went to a best-of-seven format in 1938 and to date only two teams have been outscored in the series and still won the Cup. The 2004 Tampa Bay Lightning were outscored by just one goal and the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins were outscored by just three goals. Currently, Vancouver holds a three games to two advantage and have been outscored by eight goals. Moreover, Boston goal tender Tim Thomas has allowed just six goals in five games so it stands to reason that this series is heading back to Vancouver.
Vancouver boasted the best scoring offense and defense during the regular season. Boston has done a great job defensively holding one of the best power play teams in the NHL to just one goal in 25 opportunities.
Supporting simulator projections
The simulator shows a high probability that Vancouver will score two or fewer goals in this game. In past games where the Boston defense held an opponent to two or fewer goals they have posted a 50-10 record making 37.8 units per one unit wagered this season, 131-31 record making 93.4 units per one unit wagered spanning the past three seasons, and a 432-111 record making 348.7 units per one unit wagered since 1996.
Take the Boston Bruins in Game 6