Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 30
The long ball parade carries in our best home run predictions today, with a rare appealing price for Aaron Judge (+255) coming through for us yesterday, leading to a profitable Dinger Tuesday.
That comes after we also hit on Kerry Carpenter Monday at +360. Now we'll aim to keep the ball-launching fun going this week while turning to a handful of sluggers facing some of the league's worst pitching staffs, including Juan Soto from the World Series Odds-contending New York Mets.
💰 Best MLB home run predictions & odds today: April 30
Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Juan Soto player prop pick: To hit a home run (+450 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Wyatt Langford player prop pick: To hit a home run (+425 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Alex Bregman player prop pick: To hit a home run (+525 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Paul Goldschmidt player prop pick: To hit a home run (+540 FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
💣 Home run predictions today: MLB expert picks & prop bets
Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Juan Soto (Mets) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +450 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $45)
Soto is off to a sluggish start by his skyscraper-level standards. He's hit three home runs and sports a .772 OPS, and by the end of the March/April period last year, he had clubbed eight dingers with a 1.019 OPS.
However, much of the underlying metrics still shine, most notably an average exit velocity of 93.4 mph, which ranks in the top 9% of MLB. The same is not true for the opposing starter he'll face tonight, with Corbin Burnes of the Arizona Diamondbacks seemingly drifting further away from his Cy Young odds-winning form.
Burnes took the honor in 2021 and finished fifth in voting last year. But his 8.4 K/9 is significantly lower than during that award-winning season (12.6), and his hard-hit rate allowed of 52% ranks in the bottom 5% of MLB. That's a major downturn in the latter category after he gave up a 31.6% hard-hit rate last year.
📊 Mets vs. Diamondbacks home run odds
⚾ Wyatt Langford (Rangers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +425 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $42.50)
Terms and conditions apply.
There's always long-ball potential when you're riding with a slugger opposing the Oakland Athletics, whose pitching staff ranks 25th with a 4.72 ERA, with much of that due to a scuffling bullpen.
Luis Severino has been an issue at times too with his two blowout outings featuring five earned runs early in April. He's course corrected recently, but Severino still isn't putting batters away much with a 6.8 K/9.
He'll run into a sizzling-hot hitter in second-year standout Wyatt Langford, who enters tonight with a 1.036 OPS and six home runs. He began to take off toward the end of last season, but Langford sat on six homers by the end of July.
The speedy outfielder has been teeing off on sinkers while slugging .650 against that pitch, according to Baseball Savant. That's an offering that Severino relies on heavily and throws it 25.4% of the time.
📊 Rangers vs. Athletics home run odds
⚾ Alex Bregman (Red Sox) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +525 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $52.50)
Terms and conditions apply.
Similar to Langford's matchup against the Athletics and their struggling pitching, it's wise to pile on the quickly regressing Blue Jays' staff in your homer hunting. And especially so ahead of a bullpen day.
The Blue Jays have been in search of a steady replacement for the injured Max Scherzer, and that will lead to the bullpen picking up the workload tonight against the surging Boston Red Sox. Toronto has lost eight of its last nine games, including the Red Sox hitting four home runs while pummeling the Jays 10-2 last night.
The Blue Jays have given up an average of 6.6 runs per game during that stretch of futility. Meanwhile, Bregman joined the dinger festivities last night, and he's featured heavily in an offense that sits third MLB-wide in runs and eighth in round-trippers.
Bregman is on a nine-game hitting streak that includes five multi-hit outings and six knocks for extra bases. He'll get to feast on a staff that's allowed a league-worst 42 homers.
📊 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays home run odds
⚾ Paul Goldschmidt (Yankees) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +540 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $54)
We conclude with yet another group of mashers squaring off against a pitching staff that's been consistently generous. The Baltimore Orioles aren't far behind the Blue Jays while tied for the second-most home runs allowed at 39.
They'll trot out Cade Povich to start on Wednesday, and he's done his part to contribute to Baltimore's homer-happy ways while allowing four dingers across his last three starts, factoring into a bloated 5.04 ERA. His mediocre fastball has been clobbered, and the results could get much worse. Opponents are posting a .364 batting average and .576 slugging against his four-seamer, but their expected slugging is a whopping .739.
That surely warms Paul Goldschmidt's soul, and his smile will grow further while hitting against a lefty. The veteran power-hitter is posting a 1.601 OPS against southpaws this season.
Part of the motivation for this play is also capitalizing on an appealing price, as FanDuel's +540 offering is much better than the +400 through Caesars.
📊 Yankees vs. Orioles home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Wednesday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.
💣 Juan Soto to hit a home run (+430)
💣 Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+540)
💣 Wyatt Langford to hit a home run (+360)
💣 Alex Bregman to hit a home run (+470)
🚀 Best parlay odds: +88838 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8883.92)
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