Dodgers vs. Pirates: MLB Picks

In thick of the playoff race, the Pittsburgh Pirates try to make it two in a row against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who themselves are chasing their longtime rivals, the San Francisco Giants, for the NL West lead.

Three down and one to go for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates who wrap up their 4-game set with a Thursday matinee at PNC Park. 

It's also a case of three down for the Pirates after dropping the first three games of this crucial series.  Make that seven down in 10 tries on this homestand that was supposed to have been their defining moment in making it back to the postseason after such a long drought. The MLB odds suggest Pittsburgh will at least end the series and the homestand on a high note with the Bucs installed as favorites in the -125 to -130 range at a majority of shops. 

Thursday's scoreboard hurdle has been set at 7.5 with several places pricing the OVER a few pennies higher. 

Once again, the Dodgers scored with relative ease in Wednesday's 9-3 victory to move to within a game of their first ever 4-game sweep at PNC Park. They've enjoyed several 3-game broom jobs before on this diamond, where they now stand 31-13 all-time, and will be gunning for their 10th consecutive win over Pittsburgh. 

Los Angeles takes aim at the sweep with Joe Blanton on the mound. Blanton will, in turn, take aim at his first win in a Dodgers uniform and his first dubya in a month since he ironically beat LA at Chavez Ravine on July 16. The beefy righty also beat the Pirates in Philadelphia earlier this season after taking a loss out of the Phillies pen at PNC Park back in early April. 

Standing in LA's way of the sweep is Pirates ace AJ Burnett. The veteran is coming off his first home setback of the season when the Padres roughed Burnett up a bit last Saturday. He didn't face the Dodgers in April, and has seen them only once since 2005, his final season with the Marlins. 

One big theme on this homestand for the Pirates, other than them losing seven of the first 10 games, is the OVER which has cashed eight of the 10 games. I do like Burnett bouncing back from his only home loss of the year and keeping Pittsburgh from being swept in his series, but I like the idea of at least eight runs coming plateward this afternoon. Mark me down for a play on the OVER. 

My pick: Over 7.5 (-110)

Wednesday's key words at PNC Park in Pittsburgh are "first win."  Clayton Kershaw is looking for his first career win over the Pirates, and Wandy Rodriguez seeks his first win in a Bucs jersey when opposing the Los Angeles Dodgers.

MLB odds for the 7:05 PM (ET) first pitch at PNC Park went out with LA -145 to -155, and have settled at -140 as of Wednesday morning.  The total opened at 7 runs and remains there, priced 15-20 cents to the UNDER at many of the fine betting establishments charted by SBRodds.

Thanks to Chad Billingsley on Tuesday, it's also not a case of me looking for my first winning pick in this series.  Billingsley won his fifth straight start by working eight shutout frames in the Dodgers' 11-0 win as $1.20 chalk.  Those 11 runs might be a bit misleading for some folks who don't delve a little deeper into the boxscore. Four of LA's first seven scores came on infield hits, sac flies and ground outs, so it's not like the Dodgers tore the cover off the ball. Their final five runs were at reliever Chad Qualls' expense, and it's high time MLB teams quit recycling him into their bullpens.

Kershaw had the one hiccup in St. Louis since the All-Star break but has otherwise been unbeatable. A string of seven straight starts not allowing a homer was snapped his last time out in a victory at Miami, and he stifled Pirates hitters at Chavez Ravine back in April (7 IP, 1 ER).

Rodriguez has come out on the losing end in his last two outings while allowing a pair of bleacher bombs in both starts. The southpaw saw the Dodgers in April while he was still in an Astros uniform, and tossed seven shutout innings in a lopsided Houston win.

This homestand for Pittsburgh has been a disaster so far at 3-6, and one can't help but wonder if the wheels are starting to come off.  The Pirates began the stand 33-16 at PNC Park, the best home record in baseball, while the Dodgers have pushed their road record to 31-28 after winning four of their first five on the current 10-game trip.

I'm riding the streaking Dodgers and last year's NL Cy Young winner in this game with a play on LA.

My pick: Dodgers -140

PNC Park continues to be a most hospitable away setting for the Los Angeles Dodgers who took Monday's series opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates, 5-4. The two teams get right back to it Tuesday night with an intriguing matchup on the mound.

MLB odds for the second game generally introduced Los Angeles as a -110 to -115 favorite, with the line rising to -120 on the Dodgers by Tuesday morning. The game total is eight and we'll call the OVER/UNDER equally priced. 

What makes the pitching duel interesting is both of tonight's starters have been putting cash into baseball bettors' pockets for a few weeks now. Chad Billingsley has been solid in four assignments for LA since his brief trip to the disabled list, and Kevin Correia has grabbed the dubya in his last six starts. Each hurler has also pitched well against the opposing lineups when the clubs met in Los Angeles back in early April. 

Indeed, Billingsley has enjoyed success vs. the Pirates throughout his career. He tossed six innings and allowed just a solo homer for Pittsburgh's only run in a 4-1 victory on April 11. The win lifted his career mark to 6-1 against the Bucs to go with an 3.83 ERA over eight career assignments. 

Correia took a no-decision during that series in LA, like Billingsley tossing six frames of 1-run ball in the Dodgers eventual 2-1 triumph. 

As you'd expect considering the Pirates suffered 19-straight losing seasons entering the 2012 campaign, the Dodgers have owned this series the past 20 years, and bring a 7-game win streak over Pittsburgh into Tuesday's game.  Los Angeles has also ruled the crow's nest at PNC Park since it opened in 2001, with Monday's victory raising the club's mark to 29-13 on this diamond. 

Monday's win also allowed the Dodgers to catch the San Francisco Giants in the NL West while giving them a very nice 3-1 start to this road trip.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has suddenly lost some of its magic with four defeats at PNC Park in the last five games on this homestand. 

I'll ride the streaking Dodgers tonight behind Billingsley against the suddenly slumping Pirates. 

My Pick: Dodgers -120