England vs. Ukraine: Euro 2012 Picks & Odds

After a great result (in a great game) against Sweden, England are just a point away from qualification to the knockout stages of Euro 2012, standing in their way are the only remaining host side with a chance of qualification; the Ukraine.

As we head toward the final games in Group D England are tied with France on four points, sitting second on goal difference. Tournament co-hosts Ukraine are on three points (after beating Sweden and losing to France) and pointless Sweden, who can’t qualify, round out the group.

The Ukraine play England on Tuesday night while Sweden face France.

The safest bet in the world will be that any decent English pub showing the match will filled enthusiastic St George crosses and Wednesday morning will see a huge drop in English workplace productivity. England may well fancy their chances as the Ukraine are 55th in the Fifa world rankings - below such flyweights as Armenia and Panama.

England may be favourites to qualify at 1/4, but quarter final places shouldn’t be counted before they hatch. The Ukraine can still qualify if they beat England, so don’t expect them to roll over and want their bellies tickled, especially with boisterous and numerous home fans behind them.

Our own brand of hope and glory

It’s nothing but good for England as the Three Lions seem to be improving game by game under Woy (who is now offered up at Evens to see out his four year contract). England are still around 11/1 to win Euro 2012, but they are 9/2 to reach (and go out at) the semi-finals (like they did in 1996). Ukraine looked impressive going into their first European Championship, winning five out of six pre-tournament friendlies and drawing with Germany, but the 2006 World Cup quarter-finalists were still reasonably long shots at 45/1 (to win Euro 2012) after they failed to qualify for the 2010 World Cup.

(Sir) Roy Hodgson reckons co-hosts Ukraine might indeed raise their game against England because of the influence exerted by their local fans. "The Ukraine will be a tough nut to crack. All hosts are tough nuts to crack,” said Woy. Speaking from experience he added, "I managed Switzerland against hosts United States at World Cup '94 - it wasn't easy. The passionate crowd could push Ukraine to heights they might not ordinarily achieve." Many soccer betting shops have Ukraine beating England at 11/4. If they beat England and France draw or lose against Sweden (at 3/1 and 5/1) it would be the co-hosts who top Group D, available at 8/1.

England have faced the Ukraine twice before in the 2010 World Cup qualifiers, beating them 2-1 at home but losing 1-0 away. Those scores are offered up at soccer odds of 8/1 and 10/1 this time round.

Reasons to be cheerful

England need just a point to guarantee qualification and a draw in Tuesday night’s game is at 6/5. England could top Group D if they outperform the French but France are the bookies favourites to top the group at 8/13. England are 2/1 to top Group D and 9/10 to come second. FYI if England and France both win (or draw), the top spot (and a quarter final game against the runner up from Group C) goes to the team with the superior goal difference. Should both England and France lose, the team which has the superior goal difference between the pair will qualify (and face the winner of Group C).

Striking gold

England’s biggest issue seems to be which goal scorers to start Tuesday’s game with. There’s Danny Welbeck, who hit the winner as England came from behind to beat Sweden (for the first time in a competitive fixture) on Friday night. There’s Andy Carroll, who opened the scoring against Sweden with a superb first-half header. And don’t forget Wayne Rooney who is eligible to play after missing the first two Euro 2012 games through suspension.

Welbeck is 11/8 to get a goal against Ukraine, Carroll is 7/4 to score at any time and Rooney is 5/1 to score first against Ukraine (and 11/8 to score at any point), worth a cheeky bet as the Roonster will be carrying a pair of fresh legs onto the pitch should he play on Tuesday night, not to mention “fresh” hair.

I’d say that England have too much attacking talent not to score (they are 8/1 to be the highest scoring side in Euro 2012) and I doubt the Ukraine will be able to outscore them. A swift glance at the record sheet tells us that the Ukraine hasn’t kept a clean sheet in four games (a run that has seen them conceded eight goals) while England have scored six goals and kept two clean sheets in the same period.