Euro 2012: Netherlands vs. Germany

Two teams with below par Euro 2012 opening games under their belts clash in Group B’s second round of matches, when Germany take on the Netherlands on Wednesday night. Holland needs either to beat the Germans or hope the Danes overcome Portugal.

It was a shaky start for Ze Germans in Euro 2012, and despite being the bookies second favourites in the tournament, it wasn’t the comfortable victory over Portugal I predicted. Still ein seig is still a victory even if it is a narrow one.

German’s Euro 2012 campaign looked doomed to begin with frustration, a single point and a blank score sheet, until Mario Gomez headed in the only goal of the game on 72 minutes. It was a game as tight as a pair of undersized lederhosen in Lviv, but it made little difference to the odds on Germany lifting the Euro 2012 trophy and the bookies have kept them around the 11/4 mark. This German squad has an average age of 25 years and 120 days, making them the youngest starting Germany line-up for a European Championship final, but the boyish Germans don’t look quite as dominant as their position as second favourites suggested.

Expect more from the nation that has no word for “fluffy” and just one word for “efficient”

Germany’s manager Joachim Loew was happy enough with the 1-0 against Portugal, adding, “It's very important not to chase your own shadow - you have to win the first game. The European Championship is like a Formula One race but without a warm-up." Loew is adamant that there is more to come from his side. The sportsbooks agree as Germany are still 11/25 to reach the semis and 36/5 to reach the final of Euro 2012.

Day two of Euro 2012 saw surprise #1

Many heads were scratched when Holland (formerly 13/2 to lift the trophy, and now as high as 14/1 with some sportsbooks) were beaten by 80/1 longshots Denmark in Kharkiv, Ukraine on Saturday. The game was another one goal Charlie and it was Michael Krohn-Dehli's expertly taken first-half strike that earned Denmark their shock win. The Netherlands played their own role in their defeat and did themselves no favours as they missed a plethora of chances.

That means that the Netherlands are in real danger of not making the quarterfinals, a situation currently offered up at 4/11. Should the Netherlands lose to Germany and Portugal NOT BEAT Denmark, then it would be goodnight Amsterdam. Portugal are 5/2 to manage a draw with Denmark, and Denmark are 3/1 to win that match.

The Dutch need to buck the odds if they want to avoid an uphill struggle and all or nothing game against Portugal on Sunday 17th June. The Netherlands are now 17/5 to reach the semis. Their game against Germany is a case of 'win at all costs', so expect hard tackles and no quarter given. They’ll want a win and will settle for ANY hue of victory.

The bookies have Germany at 7/5 to win this match and the Netherlands at 2/1, while a draw which would blow Group B wide open, is at 12/5. The shortest correct score odds on a Netherlands win are 8/1 for 1-0, but that score is behind Germany winning 1-0 (at 5/1) and 2-1 (at 6/1) and equal to Germany winning 2-0. Still as Banacek always said, “Though the hippopotamus has no sting, the wise man would prefer to be sat upon by the bee”. 

Holy missed chances Batman!

Maybe the weight of expectation was too great on little Robin van Persie, who is now at 16/1 to be the tournament's top scorer (the same as MISSter Fernando Torres). A similar thing happened to van Persie at the 2010 World Cup. He maybe takes on too much responsibility playing for country, and just fails to convert his chances. He should be flying after the 36 goal season he’s had with Arsenal, but he seems a Poundland version of Arsenal’s striker on the international stage.

Expect plenty of German wine and German song

Germany are favourites to win this match (and are 2/5 top Group B). A double defeat in their two opening games would make the Netherlands, who started the tournament around the third favourite mark, a top bet to go out at the first hurdle.

If you want to back a German win (and I do, partly as an extension to the Queen’s jubilee celebrations and mostly because the weight of footballing probability) back the Netherlands bowing out early and failing to qualify at 4/11 too.