10* graded play on the Marlins as they take on the Cardinals. They are coming off a three-game sweep of the Royals and now face Miami for a three-game set. The Marlins have suffered a horrific month of June posting a 5-16 mark through games of June 24.
Starting Pitcher Matchups
Ricky Nolasco was hammered in his
last start, completing just 3 innings and allowing nine earned runs on nine
hits, walking one batter, and striking out one batter. He has a 5.16 ERA and a
1.387 WHIP for a 6-6 record in 14 starts this season. Before this bomb of a
last start, he had completed six innings in two straight starts and pitched
Nolasco has an elite curve ball
and mixes in a slider and fastball that serve to augment that pitch. He will
throw fastball just 51% of the time, and 61% of the time on the first pitch of an
at-bat. He has become a bit predictable, throwing curve 2% or slider 14% of the
time when behind in the count. Instead, he has thrown fastball 71% when behind
in the count, and this has allowed batters to sit on that pitch. I
fully expect him to have differing pitch sequences that will keep the Cardinal
batters off balance.
Cardinal starter Jake Westbrook is 6-6 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.322 WHIP in 16 starts this season. He has
posted pedestrian-type numbers, walking 23 batters and striking out 59 in 87
innings of work. He is very hittable at times when he does not complete his
throws, and the result is a ball up in the zone. He is coming off an impressive
complete game 3-1 win at Detroit. However, the last time he completed eight or
more innings was in a 5-1 loss versus Milwaukee August 10, 2011. In his next
start he completed 5 innings allowing five runs in a 6-2 loss at Pittsburgh.
When a MLB starting pitcher
completes a nine inning game but is accustomed to making it to the sixth, the
fatigue factor can adversely affect the next start. That is clearly the
situation for Westbrook in this game, and I do not see him completing six
innings in this game.
MLB odds makers currently have the Cardinals pegged as -125 favorites. The total sits at 9.
Supporting this graded play is a
system that has produced a record of 33-10 for 77% winners and has made 24 units
per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on home teams when the money line is +125
to -125 stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season and after
a win by eight runs or more. The Marlins defeated Toronto 9-0 Sunday.
The Cardinals are not in a good
situation for a road win against the Marlins tonight. Note that the Cardinals
are just 4-14, losing 13.1 units per one unit
wagered using the money line when facing a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350
to 1.450 this season. Moreover, Westbrook is an imperfect 0-9 losing 12.8 units
per one unit wagered using the money line when facing NL teams scoring 3.8 or
less runs per game on the season in games played encompassing the last two
Take the Miami Marlins.