MLB Betting: Weekly Pitching Report

Which MLB pitchers are going to make us money in the upcoming weeks? Find out who we are backing with our MLB betting picks.

This is the tenth edition of the weekly starting pitching report card, which identifies contrarian opportunities in MLB games. This report along with the National League and American League team reports are released on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and will include featured contrarian opportunities based on public sentiment and net money won.

Summary Results of Recommended Plays

To date, through games recommended, the contrarian starter plays have produced a 12-12 losing 0.37 units per one unit wagered. So, with each play graded for 5 units the net loss is 1.85 units. 

Cole Hamels

The Phillies resigned arguably the best left-handed starting pitching in the majors under the age of 30 years in Cole Hamels. I believe he will become the cornerstone of the starting rotation in the years to come and will win at least one Cy Young before this contract is complete. 

Hamels ranks 62nd among starting pitchers in net money won with 2.61 units made per one unit wagered this season. His team record stands at 12-7 on the season and although MLB odds makers will favor him in nearly every start moving forward, the risk-reward profile will support plays on him and the Phillies for at least his next five starts. With the contract stress behind him, his performance will become even greater and more focused. 

Play on Hamels Thursday when the Phillies travel to play the Atlanta Braves in the first of a three-game series. 

Zack Greinke

Another elite starter that is highly undervalued from a betting perspective, but is going to get increased media attention as the trading deadline approaches is Milwaukee’s Zack Greinke. I had the pleasure of seeing him pitch Tuesday in Philadelphia and was spectacular allowing three hits through seven innings of work. He had thrown just 83 pitches to that point and was relieved holding a 6-1 lead. The final was a Philadelphia 7-6 win as the Brewers bullpen imploded allowing six earned runs in the bottom of the eighth innings. 

Greinke was hitting 95 MPH with his fastball throughout the entire game and was mixing in a mid 80’s slider and a 75 MPH curve and was throwing them all for strikes. It was the most dominating performance he has had since his Cy Young years. I highly recommend taking him in his next start when he faces the Nationals and Gio Gonzalez in D.C. Sunday. He will be installed as a dog in that game providing even greater opportunity for a big play. 

Top-20 Starting Pitching Money Makers

Rank	Starting Pitcher	Team	Team Record	Money Won
1	A.J. Burnett	PIT	14-3	$12.66
2	R.A. Dickey	NYM	15-5	$12.09
3	Jered Weaver	LAA	14-3	$9.86
4	Gio Gonzalez	WAS	15-5	$9.22
5	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	13-5	$8.97
6	Tim Hudson	ATL	12-4	$8.30
7	Johnny Cueto	CIN	14-6	$7.79
8	Lance Lynn	STL	14-5	$7.69
9	Tommy Hanson	ATL	14-6	$7.35
10	Jeff Francis	COL	7-2	$7.23
11	Tom Milone	OAK	12-7	$6.87
12	David Price	TB	13-6	$6.35
13	James McDonald	PIT	13-7	$6.26
14	Chris Capuano	LA	13-7	$6.11
15	Jose Quintana	CHW	8-3	$6.08
16	Wade Miley	ARI	11-5	$5.94
17	Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	12-8	$5.90
18	Felix Doubront	BOS	13-6	$5.87
19	Jason Hammel	BAL	11-7	$5.80
20	Madison Bumgarner	SF	13-7	$5.78

In summary, there are no fade opportunities on this list of Top-20 money makers. A. J Burnett heads the list and is pitching very strong baseball for the Pirates this season. His performance levels have been consistant and I expect them to continue indefinitely. R. A. Dickey has been a play against over his last several starts and it has been a modest money maker. I believe that there will be opportunities to fade him again in the near future as the Mets are beginning to show signs of implosion. 

I would like to focus on the ‘Ugly’ Bottom -20 Money Burners and identify opportunities that we had successfully done with the last edition. 

The Bottom-20 ‘UGLY’ Money Burners 

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Record	Money Lost
21	Colby Lewis	TEX	8-8	$-5.84
20	Vance Worley	PHI	6-10	$-6.00
19	Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	7-14	$-6.00
18	carlos Zambrano	MIA	7-12	$-6.20
17	Matt Moore	TB	8-11	$-6.50
16	Jamie Moyer	COL	2-8	$-6.50
15	Josh Beckett	BOS	6-10	$-6.55
14	Doug Fister	DET	5-9	$-6.55
13	Matt Garza	CHC	6-12	$-6.80
12	Edwin jackson	WAS	6-12	$-6.80
11	Randy Wolf	MIL	6-13	$-7.85
10	Randall Delgado	ATL	5-12	$-8.45
9	Henderson Alverez	TOR	6-13	$-8.50
8	Jordan Lyles	HOU	2-11	$-8.75
7	Adam Wainwright	STL	8-12	$-8.8
6	Chris Volstad	CHC	0-9	$-9.00
5	Tim Lincecum	SF	6-14	$-9.25
4	Dan Haren	LAA	7-11	$-10.05
3	Ervin Santana	LAA	5-14	$-12.10
2	Jon Lester	BOS	7-13	$-12.50
1	Cliff Lee	PHI	5-12	$-12.65

 

There are some marquee names appearing on this dreaded list, but herein lies the opportunity for us to make some money with our baseball picks over the next several weeks. Cliff Lee gave up three home runs in his start against Milwaukee Tuesday, but still represents strong opportunities. The public is now fully convinced he will end the season with just one win. What the public is missing the point on is that the Philadelphia offense is finally together for the first time this season. I like playing on the Phillies with Cliff in his next start. That start may be next Tuesday given the Phillies have two days off with one this Thursday and then another Monday. Check out the MLB with John Ryan thread for more information on this play and others. 

I also like playing on Jon Lester and Josh Beckett in their next starts. Again, these starters are just too good to continue pitching at the inconsistent and sometimes very poor levels they have exhibited. The Red Sox also have an offense that is improving and will provide more than ample run support for both of them.