MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Mets

The Los Angeles Dodgers look to sweep the New York Mets Sunday, after taking the first two games of this series by scores of 7-6 Friday and 8-5 Saturday. Both of those games played OVER on the totals. Eovaldi pitches for L.A. against Niese for N.Y.

So the Dodgers, with a three-game winning streak and at 51-44, remain 2.5 games behind first-place San Francisco in the NL West.  

The Mets, losers of eight of their last nine games, have fallen back to .500 for the first time since April and now trail the Braves by five games in the battle for the second NL Wild-Card spot. 

L.A. has gotten a much-needed boost from the returns of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to the lineup. Since coming back from stints on the DL, those two have combined to go 21-58 (.362) at the plate with three homers and 11 RBI.   

Lefty Jon Niese (7-4, 3.58) will start Sunday's series finale (1:10 pm Eastern, TBS) for New York against rookie righty Nathan Eovaldi (1-6, 4.33) for Los Angeles 

Niese is 10-18 on quality starts this year, and six for his last eight. In his only start so far since the All-Star break, he held the Nationals to one run on three hits through seven innings, walking none and striking out eight, although the Mets lost that crazy game 5-4 in extra innings. 

On the season Niese has allowed 98 hits, including 16 homers, in 111 innings, walking 32 and whiffing 99. 

This will be Niese's first start against L.A. this year; in two starts vs. the Dodgers last year, he gave up six ER on 12 hits through 12 2/3 innings, and New York won both those games.  

Eovladi's numbers don't show much, but he's actually thrown in some tough luck this season. Out of his nine starts, he's given up more than three runs just twice, and the Dodgers have lost games he's started by scores of 2-1, 3-2, 1-0, 2-1, 4-1 and, most recently, 3-2. If you took away his one real bad start, back in June vs. the Giants in which he got gouged for eight runs, his ERA would be 3.25.  

Also, the totals have leaned toward the UNDERS in Eovaldi's starts by an 8-1 margin.  

However, his other worst outing came vs. the Mets back in June, when Eovaldi gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-0 Dodgers loss 

As far as the baseball odds go on Sunday's game, the Mets could be played at -140 at Bovada, while the Dodgers could be gotten at +147 at Matchbook. And most online sportsbooks are listing the total at eight. 

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For Saturday's pitching matchup, New York will go with Miguel Batista (1-2, 4.33) while L.A. will counter with lefty Chris Capuano (9-5, 2.75).

Here's what we're looking at 

Batista comes out of the bullpen to start Saturday. He gave up two runs in less than an inning Wednesday vs. the Nationals, and on the season, has allowed 48 hits and walked 28 in 44 innings. But with Dillon Gee on the DL the Mets don't have too many choices with this spot in the rotation. Batista has made one appearance vs. Los Angeles this season, allowing one unearned run in two-thirds of an inning three weeks ago. 

Warming up over in the other bullpen, Cappy is 12/18 in quality starts this season, and the Dodgers are 12-6 in games he's started. In his latest outing Capuano gave up four runs, none earned, in 6 2/3 innings vs. the Padres, and he's got five QS in his last six outings. On the season the former Met has allowed 99 hits in 118 innings, walked 36 and struck out 103. 

This year Capuano has started once vs. New York, giving up three ER on five hits through seven innings of a 3-2 Los Angeles loss one month ago. 

In perusing MLB odds makers Saturday morning we found the Dodgers at -126 for Saturday's game at Matchbook, while the Mets were getting +127 at Heritage. 

And most baseball betting books are listing the total on this game at 8.5. 

Free MLB Pick 

We figured New York would eventually fade from contention in the NL East, and thanks to some injuries in the starting rotation and one of the worst bullpens in baseball, that's exactly what's happening. L.A., meanwhile, may have found some new enthusiasm with the return of Kemp and Ethier. So, we'll go with the Dodgers Saturday.