MLS Pick: Montreal Impact vs. Sporting Kansas City

Two misfiring sides face off on Wednesday when Montreal Impact take on Sporting Kansas City in a 4th of July encounter where both sides would love to have something to celebrate. The Impact have lost two straight and Kansas will feel that they can compound Impact’s misery.

Revenge may well be sweet

The last time these sides met the game ended in a 2-0 away victory for Impact. A repeat of that score or a reverse (and sweet revenge for KC) is at +1200. Before you scoff at the idea of Montreal scoring goals, remember that the last two wins that Montreal have enjoyed have seen them score four goals (4-1 against Seattle and 4-2 against Houston). If you fancy that sort of scoring win-streak continuing, 4-1 against the Wizards and 4-2 are at +5000 while and 4-0 is at +7000. However, recent history paints a considerably bleaker picture for Montreal as their last two games have been a pair of hefty 3-0 defats (at the boots of DC and Toronto), a triple hat trick of 3-0's for Montreal is at the shorter odds of +2500.

Incoming!

Montreal have big ideas as their acquisition of multi European “experiences” attends. For starters, Italian central defender Alessandro (four-time member of the annual UEFA Team of the Year) Nesta looks to be on his way to Montreal. On Monday an Impact spokesman confirmed the team made an offer to the 36-year-old Serie A veteran. There could be a heavy Italian flavour to Montreal these days as the Impact have also announced the signing of Marco (The Stoat) Di Vaio, as the club's first ever Designated Player. It doesn’t stop there as Juventus legend Alessandro Del Piero (who has long stated his desire to experience another footballing culture is) reportedly in talks with Montreal about joining the Canadian outfit. And last, but by no means least Montreal have expressed a desire to sign former Germany captain Michael Ballack, although nothing has been confirmed yet!

While Montreal look to build for the future, Kansas city need to sort out the present

Back to back defeats will always leave a bitter taste in mouths, but Sporting KC will feel especially hard done by by the Gods of football, as it’s not as if they were capable of winning their games. “What we've learned is that when we play like we can play, we can beat anyone in the league," captain Davy Arnaud said, "and I really believe that”. The bookies are less confident.

Kansas City failed to find the back of the net in their last two games, a 1-0 defeat against Chicago Fire and 4-0 against the Philadelphia Union. KC’s defeat against Chicago was especially galling as they had by far the best of the game. Sporting dominated possession, owning 61.4% of the ball and outshot Chicago 27-10 (although only 5 of KC's shots were on target).

Too close for comfort

Sporting may be winless in their last three game (LLD), but they have a draw and two wins in their last five, while Montreal have just two wins (LLWLW). Montreal have let in 11 goals in their last five and scored nine, that averages out to (approx.) 2 goals each way, and a 2-2 draw against Kansas City is offered up by the soccer odds makers at +1200, and any draw is at +220.

The bookies have this one as a tight match with an Impact win is at +180 and a KC win at +150. Very different odds are on the MLS cup this year as Sporting are +800 while the Impact are +5000. Looking at the correct score odds, 1-0 to the Impact is the only score I’d back for an Impact win in this match and even a modest 2-0 is at +1200. Even the same score to Sporting Kansas is at a similar and uninspiring +850. All the most up to date odds are on the SBR website but the shortest odds that caught this handicapper’s eyes was the +500 on a 1-1 draw, but that’s not where the lion’s share of my money is going.

Where should your sporting money go?

There’s little riches to be had going OVER/UNDER on this game as over 2.5 goals is at a tepid -105 and under 2.5 goals is at -118. The bookies also have both sides winning by a one goal margin at the same odds of +333, while Kansas are slightly more fancied to win by two at +600 (compared to +650). Around the three goal winning margin, Kansas stretch a substantial odds lead, with the bookies offering up KC winning by three at +1200 while Montreal doing the same is at +2000.

If you want to get rich

There’s big return on offer if you back Kansas City to lead the game at the 45 and then Montreal to take the game on the 90, that’s at an impressive +2800. Actually, that should be if you want to take a chance on getting rich, because Montreal don’t look like an eleven man Lazarus, and rarely come back from trailing at half time. Both of their victories in their last five saw them take the lead.

Neither team’s current form suggests an impressive victory, but when two evenly matched sides meet, it’s the perfect time for one to up their game.