Soccer Betting: Newcastle vs. Swansea

Expect a tooth and claw affair, bereft of Xmas cheer as a bare bones Newcastle host the high flying Swans.

One of the big stories from the early stages of the season was that Newcastle United, the entertaining/harmless club of years gone by suddenly looked like a top six side. They were winning games and grinding out results. At one point they had the joint best defence in the country and hadn’t lost a game all season.

Then came the big test with the “big three”; games away to Manchsters City and United, followed by a home game against Chelsea. Many thought that these three games would bring Newcastle’s run crashing to a halt, and they would be left without a solitary point from those games. As it turned out they finished that run with one point (and that was due to a refereeing mistake that gifted them a penalty against Man Utd), but the Magpies did themselves proud in the first two games and were “unlucky” when a refereeing decision went against them in their match against Chelsea.

What was worse were the injuries they amassed in that run. Their first game after the “big three” was a trip to Norwich where the “formerly undefeated” Newcastle endured a one-sided 4-2 defeat that stretched their squad and highlighted their defensive shortcomings. Newcastle United faced Norwich without defenders Steven Taylor (likely to miss the rest of the season with an injured Achilles tendon), Fabricio Coloccini and Mike Williamson. Before Norwich Alan Pardew had been able to field the same back five in each of the club's previous 14 league games. It was that solid defensive foundation that saw Newcastle conceded just eight goals in their first 11 games, they have now conceded 11 in their last four.

Possible green shoots of recovery

The good news for Newcastle is that Alan Pardew hopes to be able to restore Coloccini and Cheick Tiote to his depleted squad for the weekend's visit of Swansea. "I do really need some personnel to get back. That would be nice," Pardew told the BBC, "I think Coloccini will, and I am hoping Tiote does too." Rumour has it that Tiote has flown home and enlisted the help of an Ivory Coast witchdoctor in a bid to regain full fitness in time for the Swansea clash. With Newcastle’s injury woes, it would have made more sense to fly the shaman to St James’ Park.

Magpies and Swans, hardly birds of a feather

Newcastle have only recorded one win in their last five and that was a 2-1 home victory over Everton, and sportsbooks are offering the same result Saturday at 15/2. Swansea's recent form reads only slightly better, as they have one win and two draws in their last five; however their last game was an impressive 2-0 win over Fulham.

Swansea had a poor run of their own (with one win in seven) to worry about ahead of their game at the Liberty Stadium last weekend, but with goals from Scott Sinclair and Danny Graham in the second half; and an excellent display from keeper Michel Vorm (who saved a Clinton Dempsey penalty and sealed a seventh clean sheet), they took all three points from the homesick London club, who have won just once away from home all season.

The soccer betting shops are offering tempting soccer odds of 20/1 on Swansea repeating that score away from home against Newcastle. The match against Newcastle is not so do or die, at least not for Swansea. Swansea are now 1/3 to be playing Premier League football next season while  Newcastle are 9/2 to manage a top six finish this term.

Newcastle will take heart from the fact that Swansea are one of just two sides who have failed to record a win away from home in the league this season (the other being relegation fodder Blackburn). The Swans have drawn two and lost five of their seven away games this season, so maybe that elusive away win is due? You can add this to your soccer picks with odds of 7/2 if you think so. 

Before you stick the Xmas bonus on that result, remember that the Welsh side have scored just six times away from home, yet they have conceded 18. Those numbers would suggest a 3-1 Newcastle win, which is available at 12/1. Newcastle have scored 21 goals in the Premier League this season and Demba Ba is their top scorer, with 11 to his name, He’s at 7/2 to open the scoring on Saturday (but don’t forget, that’s not an easy money bet, and he’s still out there at 20/1 to win the season’s golden boot).

As things stand in the table, Newcastle currently sit seventh, but despite plummeting out of the top four in recent weeks they may take solace that the five point lead they have on a 8^th place Stoke represents the biggest margin between any two consecutive sides in the Premier League table.

Newcastle does have just one home loss in their books this season, and they can feel justifiably aggrieved by the manner that they succumbed to Chelsea, that game was also the first home game the Magpies have failed to score in since the season opener against Arsenal. You might want to have a Geordie feelgood bet on Newcastle recording a resounding win; 4-0 is at 28/1, 4-1 is at 33/1 and any home win is at 4/5.

Swansea are in 11^th place, a full nine points behind Newcastle and while they seem to be sitting comfortably mid-table, anybody with a basic understanding of maths can see that they are just three points away from 17th place, which is just one spot above the relegation zone. Neither side are in a position to spin the wheels and coast into Christmas but I feel that Newcastle's home advantage, the bigger names and the role that the crowd will play means Newcastle will edge this game, but it won't be pretty.