Expect Valencia to make hay and raise
Cain after edging out Sevilla
in the Copa del Rey, especially against Real Sociedad, a side who are hovering just
above the relegation zone.
Two teams with totally different league status and cup form meet Saturday night in Spain’s La Liga when third-place Valencia, fresh from a 2-1 victory over Sevilla midweek in the Copa Del Rey (that saw them progress into last eight on away goals) take on third bottom Real Sociedad, who are “fresh” from a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Mallorca in the same competition. As an aside you might want to know that Valencia are at 4/11 to finish third in the league with the
sportsbooks, while Sociedad are 5/2 to go down.
Looking at the head-to-head stats between these two sides, Valencia are clearly bossing the contest; they've won four of the last five meetings between the two sides, keeping a clean sheet twice. The best Real have managed was a surprising 3-3 draw back in 2007. You can get some pretty hefty
soccer odds of 100/1 on that score being replicated. Valencia's narrowest margin of victory has been by a single goal 0-1 and 1-2 (twice) and those scores are available at 11/2 and 7/1 respectively.
Open season for Valencia I'm tempted to back more goals than that in this encounter as Valencia have scored in each of their last five games, although Real Sociedad have amassed only four goals from their last five. It does seem very much that the question is not who will win but how many will Valencia put past Sociedad?For example 3-2 to Valencia, which was to score the last time this fixture was played, is a very reasonable bet at 28/1. The bookies seem to agree with me on this one as they have a home win at 2/5 and an away win at 7/1. If you're feeling especially generous you might like to put a couple of pounds or euros on a sympathy bet for Sociedad to hang on for a point. I consider that a generous gesture that benefits nobody but the bookies although the odds were draw are 7/2.
You should know that Valencia have won eight, drawn three and lost four of their last 15 home games. It’s a pretty even split looking a little deeper at those matches as eight of those games have gone over 2.5 goals and seven of them had been under 2.5 goals. In this match Over 2.5 is offered at 4/5 while Under is at Evens.
Playing favouritesThere is a clear favourite with Valencia in this match and I don't see any reason to bet against them. What's more Valencia are third in the league on 34 points, “just” nine point behind league leaders, Real Madrid and they'll consider this game as a done deal and an excuse to improve their goal difference.
There might be a pedant out there who shouts about Real Sociedad's recent decent run of form, they are on six matches undefeated in La Liga (two wins, four draws), but common sense (and league position) shouts louder. I will concede that Sociedad have the fifth best away goal record with nine scored on their travels, but it’s proof that statistics can be misleading as Real Sociedad and their nine away goal tally is the joint best outside of the top four clubs in the league, but they share that honour with second from bottom Sporting Gijon. Therefore I'm going to back them to get a consolation goal that will have little impact on the game's overall outcome. Bet on Valencia to win both halves at 5/6, a decent scoreline starting at 3-1 and going up. 3-1 is at 11/1 4-1 is a 20/1 and 5-1 is at 33/1. You might want to go even higher if you've got some Christmas money to burn on
soccer betting.
Prediction: Valencia win at a canter