The St. Louis Cardinals made easy work of the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday, handing them an 11-5 beating. Find out why I am expecting a different result tonight, as we are adding the under to our MLB picks.
The St. Louis Cardinals
didn't miss their former slugger Albert Pujols in Friday's series opener at the
Milwaukee Brewers. St. Louis was getting in the game and popped
four early homers to cruise to an 11-5 rout. All four long balls came off Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo, which
was nothing new for the Redbirds who took him deep eight times in 28.2 IP last
season and winning four of the five games, including crucial Game 3 of the NLCS.
One of four MLB matchups on FOX's regional broadcast schedule
Saturday afternoon (4:05 PM ET), the two squads go right back to work at Miller
Park with a dandy pitching matchup of righthanders. St.
Louis' Adam Wainwright will make his first trip to the
mound since Sept. 2010 while Zack Greinke goes for the Brew Crew.
The MLB odds makers have released their numbers, and the tight moneyline opened Milwaukee -115 with 7 for the total and
priced to the OVER.
Looking past Friday's offensive explosion for just a moment,
Mike Matheny is no doubt happiest about the two strong starts so far by Kyle
Lohse and Jaime Garcia. Remember that
Garcia and Lohse came out of the gate last year as the 3-4 starters
respectively, so getting to Wainwright 2-0 while 2011's ace Chris Carpenter is
on the DL is indeed a great beginning for the Cardinals, especially with both
wins on the road and facing a couple of contenders in Miami and Milwaukee. That
puts some pressure on Wainwright to keep the run going in his first start back
from Tommy John surgery.
When we last saw the former 1st-round pick by Atlanta, he ran through
the 2010 season with a 20-11 mark and 2.42 ERA that was good enough for a
distant second in the NL Cy Young voting to Roy Halladay. Wainwright was in a tight 3-man race with San Francisco's Tim
Lincecum and his teammate Carpenter for the 2009 award as well.
eased him along this spring with outstanding results (18.2 IP, 1.45 ERA, .169
BAA). The Cardinals went 5-2 in his
seven starts against the Brewers in '09 and '10, Wainwright posting a 1.32 ERA
and even more amazing 63:11 K/BB ration in the 61+ innings.
Greinke made himself right at home in his first season with
the Brewers, both figuratively and literally. For baseball bettors, there wasn't a better wager in 2011 than betting
the Brewers in Miller
Park with him on the
mound. Milwaukee went a perfect 16-0 in Greinke's
home assignments, including Game 1 of the NLCS vs. the Cards, his 3.47 ERA in
101 innings a notable accomplishment in a stadium that plays more friendly to the
He beat the Cardinals all three times he faced them at home
and dropped both decisions in St.
Louis, all-in-all a 4.26 ERA in 31.2 frames. Greinke also had a pair of winning starts vs.
the Cards his final two seasons with the Royals, and enjoyed a solid spring
with a 2.82 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 30:5 K/BB ratio in 22.1 innings.
The Brewers have had an incredible home-field advantage
against the Cardinals, with 42 of the last 72 regular season games in this
series played in Milwaukee. Friday's win was the 10th for St. Louis in the most
recent 19 in this park. Before Friday's
onslaught, 10 of the previous 12 played here finished UNDER the total, with the
other two pushing the closing total.
Taking a Chance: There's
a great old gambling adage that goes like this: Never screw with a streak. Even when Greinke was roughed up by the Cards
in the first game of last October's NLCS, the Brewers still won and covered for
those laying -145 on the clash. There's another rule for bettors, ride the hot
hand, and that is definitely the Cardinals for the moment. That leaves me with
relying on both starters and their bullpens. I am adding the UNDER 7 (+100) to my MLB picks tonight.