Brazil’s women’s team fell to the USA. The
men will be out to avoid a similar result.
The 43rd edition of the Copa America is
approaching the end of the group games and Brazil really could do with a win
over Ecuador. As it stands Brazil, with two points from two games, are second
in the Group B table (just like favorites Argentina who play Costa Rica). If winless and bottom of
the table Ecuador cause an upset Brazil could well be taking an early shower
and catching an early bus home out of the competition. Still Brazil are the clear favorites in the
betting odds and it would take a diehard Ecuador fan to bet against them.
Bodog and Victor Chandler have a Brazil
win at -333, while a draw is still +350.
Time
to put up or shut up
It’s crunch time and former favourites
Brazil will advance to the next stage if they defeat Ecuador or they draw with
Ecuador and Paraguay loses to Venezuela or both Group B matches end in a draw
but Brazil score more goals than Paraguay. However Brazil will be eliminated if
they lose and either Venezuela fail to defeat Paraguay or Venezuela defeat
Paraguay and Brazil's losing margin is greater (or they score fewer goals than
Paraguay if the margins are equal).
The soccer odds makers fancy Brazil for
this match, but Ecuador have plenty to play for and offer up a big fat return
(if you have the cojones for the bet) an Ecuador win is at +800 and
+1100. Ecuador will advance if they defeat Brazil. But they will be sent
home if they lose or draw and either Venezuela fail to defeat Paraguay or
Paraguay lose by only 1 goal and Ecuador do not score at least 2 more than
Paraguay.
That may sound like death by stats, but
the Brazil fans will be very familiar with all the possible permutations, and
they’ll demand a good performance after a pair of shameful draws 0-0 and 2-2,
in their previous games. Their last
match, against Paraguay was a perfect example of snatching defeat from the jaws
of victory. The defending champions were leading 1-0 thanks to a goal from
Jadson. They should have been coasting but then Paraguay equalized through
Roque Santa Cruz, and bad went to worse as a critical error from Dani Alves led
to the defending champions falling behind.
"I think we were playing well but
after their equalizer, they began to get better. Then, I made a bad error,
which resulted in their second goal at a time when we were controlling the
game," Alves said to reporters in the press pit after the match. Brazil
were desperate for a goal and threw bodies forward, almost leaving them exposed
at the back. It looked like Paraguay were going to record a momentous win but
with just minutes left on the clock, substitute Fred picked a pass from Ganso and drove in from the edge of the box.
He broke Paraguayan hearts but saved a vital point (and the blushes) of Brazil.
It’s
not like watching Brazil
Brazil may have had a bad run of late, but
Ecuador have even less to smile about. They drew their first Copa America 2011
game 0-0 and then went down 1-0 in their second game, against Venezuela.
Although they shouldn’t be too upset and the goal that cost them the game was
every inch a beauty! Cesar Gonzalez
provided the goal that is already being talked about as a contender for goal of
the tournament. It was a fiercely struck strike that swerved into the bottom
corner to give his side the lead after 62 minutes of play, and ultimately all
three points. Venezuela now sit on top of Group B with four points, with only
Paraguay standing in the way of a place in the quarterfinals of the
competition.
With Ecuador goalless at present they will
be keen to make at least a single goal to take away from the competition. Looking at Brazil’s recent run (of five
games) we see that they haven’t lost once, although they have recorded four
draws. It seems that an under par Brazil are still the equal of most teams
firing on all cylinders. Predicting the number of goals scored is tricky with
this match. You can find under 1.5 goals at +220 and over at +300. Similarly
the first or last goal odds offer up little to get excited about. Brazil
scoring first is at -350; while Ecuador scoring first is at +320 (those odds
are the same for the last to score too). In soccer betting, I am backing a death or glory charge
for Brazil, but a (consolation) goal for Ecuador.
Prediction: Brazil win 3-1 (+1100)