Liverpool FC Premier League chances

**09/01/2012** Update

They are just one point and two goals ahead of Newcastle United but only three points behind fourth place Chelsea.

Many pundits believe that Liverpool have already dumped too many points to be considered as contenders for the league trophy this year and sportsbook seem to agree as they are an outside bet at 250/1 to lift the Premier League trophy. 

Liverpool's recent games seem to sum up this season as they followed a commanding performance (beating Newcastle 3-1) with almost a total reversal of that score when they went down 3-0 against Manchester City right after that. Besides the up and down season Liverpool also have to contend with a lack of goals from the £35 million striker Andy Carroll, who finally broke his Anfield duck this season, scoring as part of a 5-1 victory over Oldham in the FA Cup. 

Liverpool and now their fans also have the unwanted distraction of race rows buzzing around the team. Luis Suarez found himself banned for eight games for racially abusing Patrice Evra in October and while Liverpool decided not to appeal against the ban, they did themselves no favours when they issued a “antagonistically” worded statement defending the player. A good run of results would be just the right sort of distraction for the Merseyside club.

**11/13/2011** Update

As it stands the second coming of the once and future King Kenny hasn't quite turned Anfield into the Camelot a lot of fans hoped and expected.

After 11 games Liverpool sit just sixth in the Premier League, a full three points off Tottenham (who have that all-important game in hand). Sadly Liverpool are no longer serious contenders to take the Premier League this season as they are 12 points and 25 goals behind League leading Manchester City.

The odds on Liverpool FC winning the Premier league this season are around 66/1 to 52/1, although if you look hard enough you might find some really big odds of up to 99/1. I wouldn't recommend backing the Scousers to win the league this year (even at 100/1) as at least four (if not five) teams above them would need to collapse for them to be champions.

Aiming for top 3?

Liverpool are also sixth favourite (at 13/2) to record a top three finish, behind Tottenham and Arsenal, but ahead of Newcastle United who are at 29/1. Liverpool are a good side but are still (at least) a few seasons away from being title contenders.

A very telling stat is that ponytailed wonder boy Andy Carroll is now at 100/1 to be the Premier League's top goalscorer which makes his exit from St James Park, (or should we say; The Your-name-here-for-8-million-quid Stadium) the best piece of Ashley business since three for the price of two on tracksuit bottoms.

Updated Prediction: No top four finish for Liverpool, and a tough scrap for a top six spot.

**Original Article**

Liverpool are a club with a great heritage, with one of the best top-flight records in FA history, having finished below fourteenth place just 12 times in 95 seasons and they have amassed more top-flight wins than any other English team. The Reds have won 18 league titles, seven FA Cups and (a record) seven League Cups.

On the continent Liverpool reign supreme as the most successful English club, with five European Cups, three UEFA Cups and three UEFA Super Cups. Even the most rabid Evertonian or Red Devils has to admit that they were "THE" team in the 1980s, but both clubs are also well aware that that is just what Liverpool’s glories are…HISTORY.

The odds makers don’t think that history will start repeating itself this season though, Coral have the Scousers lifting the EPL trophy at 11/1, while the defending Champions are at 9/5 with Paddy Power (at time of press). The pain of slipping behind Manchester United in the “Most League Titles” will still be fresh and raw with Liverpool fans and they would love it, if they could wipe the smile of the Red Devil faces the world over and start writing a fresh page in the Big Book of Liverpool FC history, by winning the League this coming season.

Do you remember the last time?

The last time Liverpool won the League was the 1989-90 season. That’s 21 years ago, a whole person old enough to drink ago. Back then the Reds romped the league with 79 points and a +41 Goal Difference, second place was Aston Villa nine points and 22 goals behind. A little team called Manchester United finished in 13th position, with 48 points and a -1 Goal Difference.

21 long seasons without winning the league has tested the famous Scouse sense of humour. But Liverpool fans showed their class, and took it with good natured chuckles when the cheeky “MUFC 19 Times” banner was unfurled at Anfield on the last day of last season (19 being the number of titles Manchester United has, one more than Liverpool’s 18).

What was less well received was the first half of Liverpool’s last season. Firstly there was the departure of Rafael Benitez to Champions League winners Internazionale, replaced by LMA Manager of the Year, Roy Hodgson. The manager made the new signings of Milan Jovanovic, Joe Cole, Paul Konchesky, Brad Jones & Raul Meireles, which seemed to signal the club’s (lack of) ambition. It was hardly a sparkling start as games slipped away from Liverpool and the team was booed by their own fans.

Their form away from Anfield was utterly awful, there was a 3-0 defeat to Manchester City, 3-1 to Newcastle and a serious loss away to Manchester United, outside the league they fared little better, being booted out the Carling Cup by humble Northampton before being beaten by local rivals Everton in what Hodgson ludicrously described as his team’s “best performance of the season”.

By January 8th Liverpool were level with Blackpool and Everton. Their new owner; John W. Henry, decided to put an end to Roy Hodgson’s reign as Liverpool manager and appoint Kenny Dalglish as caretaker manager, a very popular decision among the fans, but it was clear that Dalglish (out of management since 2000) faced an up-hill (and up-league) battle. His task was compounded by Fernando Torres requesting relocation to Chelsea at the end of the transfer window. But, in what may prove to be a tidy piece of business Liverpool recruited Luis Suárez and Andy Carroll, to replace the Spaniard.  

For anyone who believe s in the beauty of numbers, they should be aware that Roy Hodgson’s Liverpool record reads eight wins, four draws and eight defeats (with a -3 Goal Difference) while “King” Kenny managed ten wins, three draws and six losses (but swelled Liverpool’s GD to +15). Kenny Daglish’s average points per game last season was a mighty 1.83 while Roy Hodgson was just 1.25.

Had Dalglish (and the same average) been in place all season Liverpool would have finished the season on 70 points, and second in the League. That still wouldn’t have been enough to wrest the trophy from Fergies’ talons. That’s probably why Liverpool are still 10/1 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes to manage it next season.

Close but no cigar.

It will still be a good season for Liverpool and I think Andy Carroll will play a succession of blinders (and might even be worth a punt for the Golden boot), due to a) his skill b) Liverpool’s desire and c) the goal happy / hungry manner that Dalglish has his players playing. Bodog have Carroll at 9th favourite to manage it and have stuck him at +2000 to be the league’s Top Scorer, if you fancy this one, get a bet in early as Liverpool open their season at home against Sunderland, so will likely get off the goal scoring mark sharpish. However it will be an A for effort and a B for achievement as Manchester United will be just a bridge too far for Liverpool.

Maybe have a cheeky punt on Liverpool winning some other trophy, they are +900 to lift the FA Cup (with Bodog) and 9/1 to win it with William Hill. You might even want to have a wild bet on them being the 2011-12 Premiership’s highest scoring team, that’s offering a big return at 16/1 with Paddy Power.