Mexico vs. Uruguay: Copa America odds

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Get ready to rumble as Mexico will look for revenge after last year’s World Cup defeat at the hands of Uruguay. There is a slim hope that Mexico will see the next round of this year’s Copa America, but it relies on other results.


It looks to be all over bar the shouting for both Uruguay and Mexico as they sit bottom (Mexico) and second bottom (Uruguay) of the group, both winless after two games. However from the depths of despair sometimes shoots the brightest of stars. It’s do or die for Mexico, as  they have to not only beat Uruguay but hope that Costa Rico defeat Argentina (in Group A) to go through. If they draw or lose to Uruguay, that’s it and adios amigos.

Diego Forlan Free kick UruguayBecause Costa Rica play on the 11th of July the fate of Mexico may already be decided before they kick a ball on Wednesday night. In that case, if Mexico are out (if Argentina beat Costa Rica, which they should) then bet hard on a despondent Mexico folding and capitulating before heading home with their tail between their legs.

Uruguay at least have their fate in their own hands as they will progress through to the next round if they defeat Mexico (regardless of results elsewhere). If they lose to the Mexicans (remember the Alamo) then they will be out of the Copa America, until next time. A draw would require Costa Rica beating Argentina, for Uruguay to advance.

The complex permutations are due to the fact that the Copa America sees the teams finishing first and second (in each group) plus two of the best-placed third teams in each group qualify for the quarterfinals. Bad news for Uruguay and bad news for anyone who fancied betting on a high scoring game, is that Uruguay striker Edinson Cavani may miss the Mexico clash. The team’s doctor (Alberto Pan) claims he needs to rest a knee injury that the 24-year-old sustained during Friday's 1-1 draw against Chile. “Cavani has a light sprain to his right knee and he is having treatment. Obviously he must rest now," Pan reported to Il Corriere dello Sport.

A whisper of good news, to shout about

It’s not all bad news for Mexico as their Under 17 team won the U-17 Fifa World Championship (which they also hosted) after a 2-0 victory over Uruguay in the final in Mexico City last Sunday. If you reckon that the grown-ups will match the result you can get betting odds of +3300 on that score with both Bodog and Victor Chandler. The U-17s opened the scoring on 31 minutes thanks to Antonio Briseno and kept Uruguay at bay until Giovani Casillas' second-half stoppage-time goal allowed a huge sigh of relief (and some enthusiastic partying).The victory was Mexico's second U-17 world title, following on from their a victory over Peru in 2005.

 For whom the bell tolls

Uruguay coach Oscar Tabarez knows that none of these teams are too big to fail at this stage. He is well aware that, his team, Argentina and Brazil all face vital matches in the group stage's final round. "It is hard to believe that these sides can go out so early, but it can happen," the 'Maestro' told reporters during a press conference on Sunday evening.

Looking at the last six meetings between these sides suggests that the game will end with three points going somewhere as they have only managed one draw (2-2 back in 2004) out of their last six meetings. Still a stalemate is at +260 in the soccer odds. What’s more interesting is that every single game (of the six) has seen at least  one goal scored, if you think that the trend will be well and truly bucked you can get +700 on the game ending 0-0.

But Uruguay haven’t lost since 2009 when they went down 2-1 to Germany, and I feel that Uruguay will keep to winning ways. There’s been 18 goals (ten for Mexico and eight for Uruguay) in these six matched and on this occasion I’m letting the maths do the talking. I predict three goals (the average) to be scored. As an aside; over 2.5 goals is at +125 in the soccer lines. Four of the games between these sides have recorded over 2.25 goals, and the other two have been under.  Although looking at the previous games 3-1 has been the most popular score line, (occurring twice and both times in Mexico’s favour). If you think the game will end that way it’s at +6600 with bet365 but I feel that Mexico will be beaten by Uruguay.

Prediction: 2-1 Uruguay (+800)


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