The 2010/11 season is over and it has been a great advert for the English Premier League, arguably the greatest league in the world. Now is a great time to get in early and invest in the top four for next season.
The top four in the 2010/11 English Premier League wasn’t a great surprise. If you had laid a bet at the beginning of the season on United the soccer odds were a little more favorable with Chelsea tipped to retain their title!
But next year's list has promises of a tighter fight at the top. With the “new” big four being; Manchester (19 Titles) United in the top spot (with 80 points and +41 Goal Difference), recently managerless-ed Chelsea in second (nine points behind in the end), the noisy neighbours that are Manchester City not only winning their first trophy in 35 years (the FA Cup) but they well and truly crashed the big four party. They finished third, behind Chelsea on goal difference (following City’s 2-0 victory against Bolton, and Chelsea’s 1-0 loss to Everton on the season’s final weekend). Arsenal round out the top four in a sorry last place on 68 points having lost their winning ways. This year’s also-rans were Spurs, who finished in 5th (well off the pace) on 62 points and in 6th (a decent finish considering their “bad” beginnings) was Liverpool with 58 points. To put those positions into perspective 5th place Spurs were six points and twenty goals off fourth while Liverpool would have had to score fourteen more goals and win four more games to crack the top four.
Look to the future
The celebrations and hangovers from this season have barely abated and already there are bettings odds out there for next season. It’s (very) early days to be putting money on teams winning the title (or getting relegated) not least because we don’t actually know who will be playing in the Premier League next season. It’s undecided who will be joining QPR and Norwich as the promoted long shots next year. Reading and Swansea will scrap out a massive Playoff Final at Wembley, to secure a place in the top flight on Monday 30th May. (Swansea secured a place in the top flight and in doing so became the first Welsh team to achieve this honor).
Whoever makes it up, they are highly unlikely to bother the top four, staying up is what promoted sides should worry about. This year, in a wide open league, promoted West Bromwich Albion finished (a highly respectable) 11th while (last season’s 2nd tier Champions) Newcastle United finished 12th, and Blackpool (who arrived in the premiership through the playoffs) were relegated on the last day of the season. If you want to check out some really big odds that’d make the sportsbooks cry if they come in, Newcastle are 40/1 to crack the top four, West Brom are 80/1 and you’d be lucky to find odds on teams like Norwich or QPR getting into the top four, but you’d just be throwing your money away anyway.
From the sublime to the ridiculous
The safest (and the dullest) odds on top four finishes are on the Champions staying in the top four. Shy of a natural disaster, the Red Devils will be calculating which trophies they’ll be collecting next year (rather than worrying about qualifying for Europe). They are already 7/4 to win back-to-back titles and the odds on them finishing in the top four are a very boring 1/16 with Paddy Power or (worse still) 1/20 with bet365. Those odds will never make you rich, but a bet on them finishing OUTside the top four would give you something to get excited about if (somehow) the wheels fly off the Red Machine.
Chelsea are a bit of an unknown quantity having ditched their manger; Carlo Ancelotti was relieved less than two hours after Sunday afternoon's final game of the season. A stuttering end to the season might not be the end of the world, but an aging side and an itchy bummed owner (firing a double winning manager after the ignobility of finishing second to Man Utd.) might not attract the calibre of manger (or players) who will deliver the league, cup and European success that Roman Abramovich craves. Chelsea look safe to stay in the Big Four Club and they are 1/9 or 1/12 to do it. Despite a poor last lap of the season (one win out of their last seven games) Arsenal are another dull bet on a top four finish, 4/9. Rounding out the existing top four; Man City are 2/7 to continue where they left off.
First in best dressed, bet early and bet hard
If you want an interesting bet (or a decent return on your money) look outside the current Fantastic Four, the obvious contender is Liverpool FC. Not only are the Scousers a different side under “King” Kenny Dalglish, but they will have a full season with Andy (Great White Hope) Carroll and they will be fired up after Manchester United had the audacity to break their 18 league titles record. Plus they are expected to embark on a summer spending spree and due to their sixth place finish (and therefore failure to qualify for Europe, for the first time since 1999) will leave them playing fewer games, which could make a huge difference. Liverpool are around about Evens on returning to the big four next season. Don’t bet on Spurs though. Despite finishing above Liverpool (in 5th) the London side is likely to struggle next season with the added burden of European football, and they simply don’t have the cash to compete with the big boys. If you think Harry Redknapp will continue to work miracles with his squad you can get 5/2 on a Top four finish for Spurs.
There’s bigger and sillier odds out there, Newcastle and Sunderland are at 40/1, Bolton Fulham and Stoke are 50/1 and West Brom are at 80/1, to get into the top four. But they are long odds for a reason. The only Dark Horse I’d even consider backing is Everton (10/1). They finished 7th and were 14 points off a top four finish, but they drew an awful lot of games and they only need that little bit of favour from the gods of football for draws to become wins, and cause a shock.
Still Everton would be punching above their weight and a safer bet would be backing the Red side of Merseyside.
Prediction: Top Four for the 2011/12 season will be Man Utd (for their 20th title), Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool.