The 2012 US Open will start tomorrow morning at the Olympic Club outside of San Francisco, CA and it will be a severe test for the best golfers in the world. Who are the betting odds favorites to win this year, and which dark horses are we backing?
The PGA of America sets an
US Open course up so that in their best estimation, the winner will shoot right
around even par for the event. Last year, Rory McIlroy made a near mockery of
Congressional Country Club last year with his dominating performance. You can
be assured that the PGA of America will make certain that the winner will be at
best even par for the event.
The Olympic Course is short on
the scorecard at just 7,170 yards par 70, but will not be short on shot making.
At par 70 there are just two par-5’s for the players to attack. Normally, a par
70 layout will feature one par 5 on each set of nine holes. However, the
uniqueness of Olympic has its’ two par5’s in back-to-back fashion on holes 16
and 17 and 16 is the longest hole in the history of the Us Open at 670 yards.
The 18th hole is the shortest on the course, but will be a monster playing
uphill and into the Pacific Ocean wind to a postage stamp green that runs from
back to front and is surrounded by some of the deepest thickest rough on the
The course undoubtedly will
require the winner to move the ball in both directions using fades and draws of
varying heights and angles. The first golfer that comes to mind that has these
talents is Bubba Watson, the third golfer in the featured threesome of Woods
and Mickelson. We all remember some of the incredible shots he carved at the
Masters and other events and once moved a wedge nearly 50 yards from
He has been dealing with the
relentless media attention and appearances related to his Masters win and he
has been spending a lot of family time with his wife and their newly adopted
son. Golf, tough, has become the focus in past weeks after some poor play and
he feels rested, strong, and prepared to compete.
Tiger Woods, of course, gets the majority
of the media attention at all Majors since he continues to chase Jack Nicklaus
for the all-time record with 18 major wins. Given the course layout, I am not
certain, this course really sets up for him. There are an equal number of
dog leg rights as dog leg lefts, and Tiger’s best shots are the towering high
fades. The greens will be lightning quick and his lag putting has not been at
In recent events, especially his win at Memorial, he made a ton of
putts inside of 10 feet. At Olympic, if you miss the green, a great chip shot
will be one that ends up within eight feet of the hole. It is more likely that the
average putt for par, after missing the green, will exceed eight feet.
Mickelson is just a wild card for
this event. he pulled out of Memorial do to immense fatigue and has spent the
time since getting his game together to make a run for this Championship. He
certainly has the short game and creativity to shape shots to a solid contender
for this event.
There have been four other Opens
held at Olympic and all of them have be decided by a single shot or in an 18
hole playoff the next day. I certainly beleive this will be the case in this
year’s event with a scoreboard operator very busy posting more pars, bogeys,
double bogeys, and others, than birdies and eagles. Speaking of eagles, this
actually could be an OPEN where no eagles are recorded unless someone holes out
for one. Patience and nerves of steel will be necessary parts of the winners’
mental makeup. No Dounbt
In 1955, Ben Hogan finished his
round, and NBC TV signed off the air announcing him as the winner. However,
Jack Flack was still on the course and finished with two birdies over the final
four holes to tie him. The next day, Fleck held off a serious charge by Hogan and
held on for a three shot victory after Hogan double-bogeyed the 18th hole.
Fleck won with a new set of Ben Hogan irons, ironically, and never shot below
80 in any practice round.
Here are the picks:
There is already quite a bit of chatter going on in the forum as to who SBR posters believe will be the winner of the US Open, so let's take a look at the current front runners and their odds.
Woods is the favorite and the
public has pushed him to a current price of 5:1. I just don’t see any
opportunity with those betting odds on Woods even though he is playing at a high
One prop bet I like is to play
that ‘there will be a playoff at +250.
At Bovada, there is a prop bet
giving you the chance to pick the best finish among Tiger +240, Westwood +300,
Donald +350, Mickelson +450, and McIlroy +400.
I also like taking McIlroy at
14:1 to win the 2012 US Open.
I also like playing Steve
Stricker at 40:1, who has the shots, nerves, and is a tremendous putter on
quick undulating greens.
In head-to-head I like playing
Bubba Watson -115 to finish higher than Louis Oosthuizen. Take McIlroy at EVEN
over Lee Westwood and McIlroy at EVEN over Luke Donald.