Betting sports to beat the roll over: Blog by Peter Loshak

Well boys hanging on by a thread. The numbers now stand at:

86-84, +$80, +0.3% ROI, 91.8% rolled

Tonight, taking a shot with the Cincinnati Reds. Yes I know big MLB faves are risky, but I think this is one of the times one might be a decent play.

Reds’ starter Mike Leake has been pitching solidly despite his off-field troubles, and Houston starter J.A. Happ might be a bit overrated in general at the moment, and already has one start this year at Great American Park where he got crushed.

Carlos Lee is out for Houston, not that he was having a great year. But in general, in my opinion Houston “sucks” while Cincy is “pretty good”, and betting on a “pretty good” team against a team that “sucks” is a pretty good handicapping angle in my opinion, even at short MLB odds.

I put $50 on the RL at +120, $100 on the ML at -180, may go higher later on, and may make a few other MLB plays which of course I’ll report on in the thread on the forum.

Thanks as always to DSI. DSI……they pay.

Well, I been a little off my game recently. Been a little careless I admit. As of right now the numbers are:

80-77, +$231, +0.9% ROI, 86.5% rolled

Eh, barely ok, but at least not quite yet embarrassing. For tonight, I want to bet all 3 dogs plus the points in the NBA playoffs, but I’ll be getting bad lines if I do. I may do it, may not, they all look tempting, even at the current lines. I did bet Atlanta and the Pacers with my regular roll at good lines, +7.5 and +9.5, respectively.

I have bet 2 MLB team totals so far on tonight’s card, just $100 each at the moment, but I may go a lot bigger, depending on weather and lineups. I took the Mets over 3.5 -115, and the Dodgers over 4 -120.

The Mets’ offense has woken up a bit with Jason Bay back, and 3.5 against Jordan Zimmerman looks pretty doable. The Dodgers are facing Chris Volstad, and sure he might hold them down, but I think they’re more likely than not to come away with a decent offensive night. I might go considerably bigger on either or both of these, I’ll report on it in the forum thread.

One other bet I’m thinking about is the San Francisco 5-inning ML. Not sold on Charlie Morton, and Matt Cain is pretty solid and reliable.

Also a few other MLB bets I’m considering much less strongly, and of course, I’ll be tempted up until tip-off by all three of those damn NBA playoff dogs.

Thanks as always to DSI, an awesome book, not the least of which is because THEY PAY. Got it? They flat out pay. Does DSI pay? Yes, end of conversation. Capeesh?

Moving along, grinding it out, just trying to stay positive. As of right now the record is:

67-67, +$110, 76.6% rolled

Of course if you factor in the decline of the dollar since I began this, I am way down, but I am choosing not to factor that in. Some people might consider that to be “fudging” the true increase/decrease of purchasing power of the wealth involved in this rollover, but whatever.

Tonight I have only one bet already in, and considering several others. I have $250 on the Florida Marlins team total over 4 -105. Paul Maholm just does not inspire confidence against the Marlins’ lineup that has lively bats overall. Sure, Maholm does deliver the 7-inning 2-run type start reasonably regularly, but he also brings the 5-inning, 4-run type start a good amount, and I think we are more likely than not to see that here. Josh Johnson is a stud obviously, so the Florida RL and FF are also decent, but I’m just on the team total for now.

Other bets I’m looking at are:

LA Dodgers ML – Dodgers offense might get a spark in the near future with the addition of Jerry Sands, and this is a relatively low line in my opinion.

White Sox FF/TT over – I think TB has been overachieving a bit lately, and the Sox underachieving. John Danks is reliable, and the Sox’ lineup might wake up vs Shields here, they hit him well 2 weeks ago. Shields is significantly better at home though. Thinking about both plays, might go with neither.

Philly FF – Halladay as a huge fave is always a risky thing to take, and he is usually accurately priced. But I may take a small shot with it anyway, Milwaukee can disappear offensively.

Red Sox/Oak FG under/FF under – Lackey had 2 really tough assignments in his first 2 starts, this one will be considerably easier, and there’s no indication as yet that he has something wrong with him. Brett Anderson is usually good at home, Boston has not hit well on the road so far and may have trouble in this series again.

As always I’ll post last-hour or last-minute bets in the forum thread, and as always, thanks to DSI……..THEY PAY.

Been a while since I updated this blog officially, but I have made some bets in the interim, all indicated on the forum thread. In MLB, most of my bets come after checking the weather, lineups, and in some cases, the HP umpire. I’ve also slowed the betting down a bit, not going too big on much in MLB betting at the moment. Right now I stand at:

66-67, +$26, 76.3% rolled

I took out all of my pushes from the rollover amount. Not sure if DSI counts pushes towards a rollover or not, but they shouldn’t so I’m assuming they don’t. And as always, thanks to DSI for sponsoring Beat The Prick and this rollover. DSI…………….THEY PAY.

Damn, $26 between myself and official embarrassment. That ain’t a lot boys. I still cannot believe I tailed the notoriously square SBR poster fightingwarrior on a spring training MLB game. I really cannot believe that. That is the only play I tailed in this rollover. There are many known SBR posters on the sharp side, but I had to tail that guy. Un…real.

Anyway, so far today I have already put $100 on the Pitt/Cincy over 8 -120. I may go higher. Pitt’s offense has some pop to it this year, and Cincy of course has some good bats. Travis Wood can definitely be near-dominant against anyone, and if he has another 7 IP 1 ER game, the over will obviously be a tough one to win. But Kevin Corriea is always vulnerable. If we can see 2 off of Wood and 4 off of Correia after 6, the over should be in decent shape.

I may also go for the Baltimore ML, and maybe the White Sox/Tampa Bay first five under 4, we’ll see.

MLB is a grind though. With only $6K more of rollover to go, I may just wait around for 3 or 4 LOCKS to come up and go huge on each of them. It’s hard to wait around for LOCKS though. But I do LOVE them, LOCKS make everything better in fixed-odds sports wagering investing.

Lots of NBA betting action tonight boys. As of right now the record is:

52-49, +281, 62.5% rolled

Does that still count as “not bad”? Yes, but it’s cutting it close boys, cutting it close.

Should probably be pulling the trigger more with MLB, off to a pretty good start this year, but instead I’ve got a ton of NBA action tonight. I haven’t had a good NBA season, but still, I’ll go for it tonight, hopefully I’ll see some positive results.

First I took Phoenix/Minnesota under 217 for $300. I’m a little nervous that it went up to 218 everywhere, but I sort of understand that, since the last time these teams met they went very high. That could easily happen again of course, but I thought it was worth a healthy shot that it won’t, since they have changed up their style a bit recently.

Then we got 4 more unders: LAC/OKC 202.5, Sacramento/San Antonio 210, and Cleveland/Toronto 211, all for $150, and Washington/Indiana 205.5 for $100. None of these numbers have moved much as yet, and I’m betting more that the offenses will chill out, rather than that the defenses will disappear, with the year winding down and the games meaning less. But I could be way off on that, I hope I’m not.

Then the Lakers/Golden State game. There are a bunch of threads on this one on the forum, people are very interested in this game. The Lakers are essentially locked into the second seed in the West, and are dealing with some minor/nagging injuries to some top players. The outright loss to Utah as a double-digit favorite last night is great testament to the idea that the Lakers will coast the rest of the way. If that is the case, then Golden State is a great bet tonight getting points. If the Lakers decide to “re-establish” their awesomeness after 2 straight losses though, Warriors money will probably be burned.

I’m willing to bet that they’ll coast the rest of the way, so I took GS +6 -120 for $200, and might possibly add more later. I also wouldn’t be surprised at all if it comes out at game time that Bynum or Gasol or both, will be sitting. Which of course will cause the line to crash. I also took the under 202 for $150.

Let’s get ‘em boys. Thanks as always to DSI for this promotion, and for sponsoring Beat The Prick, and mostly, for being a first-class sportsbook.

Well right now 50-46, +361, 60.6% rolled. I’m making some iffy decisions, but overall it’s ok. I should be more patient with my selections, but I also want to get this thing rolled relatively soon. Those last 2 NBA unders from last night were inexcusable. Bad picks, wrong sides, both of them.  Not proud of that at all.

Not much on the card tonight, but I did throw $100 on Butler, +4 at -120 in the NCAA championship game. Fun to have action on the game, but I do also think that side has a little value. Butler has proven themselves time and time again, and I would be a little surprised if this game doesn’t go down to the wire.

Nothing definite in MLB, but looking at maybe the under 9 in the Pitt/Stl game.

Entering today, the numbers are 41-36, +554, 52.3% rolled. I’ll take it.

Tonight, well, we going back to the Creighton overs thing. We so excited. It’s Frieeedayee Frieeedayeee gotta get down on the Creighton over on Frieeedayeee. Wednesday it was 145.5. Tuh-day i-is 140. We so excited, we so excited. The NCAA Final Four, comes afterworrrrds.

Well I could get burned by this one, but I took it for $300 on the full game line at 140 on opening, and for $100 at 65.5 for the first half, and then another $50 each at 141 and 66. I think they might pick it up a bit in this one.

Also threw $100 on Sacramento +5 at home against Denver. Denver’s been awesome ATS since the trade of course, but Sacramento’s been good ATS recently too, and the home fans are supporting them despite the move. Denver blew them out at home last game, I think Sac is a good bet to keep it close here. Might go a little higher on it, depending.

As always, will be on the lookout for good NBA 2h plays, which will be reported in my thread on the forum as soon as I make them. And as always, thanks again to DSI, a book that PAYS if you win. DSI – THEY PAY.

Well, yesterday wasn’t too good. The Creighton overs run ended, and the late line movement to the under hinted it would. Oh well whatever. And today I threw a little on the Cincy ML in baseball, that’s gonna lose. Oh well whatever.

Tonight I’m on Wichita St for $350, some at -2, some at -1, average line is -114. It seems to be a popular public side, which makes me a bit nervous, considering it’s obvious why it would be – huge blowouts wins for Wichita St in the NIT, compared to squeakers for Alabama. So the public’s gonna see that and go “dude, Wichita St is awesome! -2? I’ll take it!” So yeah that makes me a little nervous.

But in this case I think I’ll go with it anyway. Alabama is very talented no doubt, but Wichita St is senior-led, deep, and crashes the boards. They want this, and I think they’ll be able to pull it out. And besides, I feel good showing solidarity with my square public brethren. To paraphrase Bob Marley “You can get all our money some of the time, but you can’t get all our money all of the time”. DSI you listening?

Almost at the halfway point in the rollover, and this has been fun. Making all the picks public puts increased pressure on me to be disciplined, in my capping and bet-sizing. It’s easy to get careless with a private bankroll, but the ever-looming embarrassment of losing picks involved with public picking is helping me to be diligent. Good lesson for me, and for all. In theory, one’s diligence and discipline should be identical whether one’s picks and bets are public or private.

I would like to extend a huge thanks to DSI for agreeing to this. I was reminded of what a great book DSI (and the whole CRIS family) is today, when I was reading some of the horror stories on SBR about books stealing funds, people getting stiffed, etc. etc. It really is true – financial stability, and confidence about getting paid, is by far the most important criterion in a sportsbook, at least for me. I don’t think I’d even want to bother playing at a book if I thought there was even a slight chance I wouldn’t get paid on my action. So kudos to DSI and the CRIS books for being who they are, a true A+ operation.

Anyway, I’ve had requests to update my record in every blog entry, so I’m doing so. Right now that’s not a problem. But if I go negative, I will probably stop putting in updates of my record. When I’m doing well, I LOVE telling everyone how I am doing, but when I am doing badly, it is so embarrassing, so I prefer to not update my overall record publicly, and draw as little attention to it as possible and hope people don’t notice too much.

Rolled Over:	$12,091
% rolled over:	48.4%
rollover left:	$12,909
P/L:	$524
bankroll:	$5,524
ROI:	3.9%
W:	38
L:	33

 

For tonight……..one mo’ time…….we gon’ celebra-a-a-ate, with a Creighton over, hopefully. I was wondering where the line would come out, and where it would move. I hit the 1H 68.5 and the full game 145.5, both for $200, when they came out. The opening numbers are creeping up, as expected.

This game will be in Oregon, so will things slow down? Quite possibly. All 4 of Creighton’s CBI overs have come at home, so things could easily change, now going on the road. But, I still feel like it’s worth a decent shot. It was a bit tough to arrive at a bet size for this. I don’t want it to be so small that if it hits, I feel like I should have gone bigger, but so big that if it loses, I feel like an idiot. So I think at these relatively high totals, $400 is about right. I have no reason to think the style of play will change, but of course it easily could. If the lines were lower I would have gone on it a lot bigger, but 68.5 and 145.5 are getting up there, so I’ll just stay at this level.

Looked over the NBA card, nothing caught my eye to bet as yet, but I’ll be looking over the NBA sub-forum on SBR and of course looking at the 2H lines, and will probably wind up with a few bets that I’ll update in the thread on the forum.

On Thursday I’ll also be on Wichita St in the NIT final. At the moment I have $350 on it, some at -1.5, some at -2.

Well, I’ve rolled about 11 grand out of the 25 I need to get to so far. Right now, I am proud to say I am UP $1.31 overall. Hey, I’ll take it.

I shudder to calculate what my current P/L and ROI would be were it not for Creighton overs, and my assessment that they would start to be a good bet. Actually, I will go back and check it out right now.

Ok, in this rollover I’ve made 4 bets on Creighton overs, all of them winners, for a profit of almost $1,200. So yeah they have saved me.

Tonight they are playing again, against Oregon, and I guess I’ll go to the well one more time. When the totals came out, I took $150 on the 1H at 65.5, and $350 on the full game at 140. I won’t go any bigger on it probably. The line has gone up, and who knows what the game plan will be against a Pac-10 team now that Creighton is close to winning the CBI, but I think it’s still worth a good-sized shot.

Probably will lay off the NBA full game lines tonight, but these kinds of games this time of year are often good for 2H lines, so I’ll be looking for opportunities there, and my plays, if there are any, will be posted in my thread on the forum.

Well the headiness is over, I had this thing up to 6 grand, but tanked with 2 bad NBA unders, in retrospect definitely the wrong sides and probably too eagerly/hastily placed, and then the Toronto/Phoenix game was a friggin disaster. I had that feeling it was going to be when I posted my entry yesterday! Read it! The game total under 211 was probably a bad play, the Phoenix team total under 109 was more forgivable, I’d probably make it again if I had to. And the Toronto +7 I think was the right side, but damn, this was the classic, classic, classic, classic example of not getting the best number.

At DSI, the line was Toronto +9 on the overnight. It didn’t move until 10:30 the next morning. If I had done my betting and research on the overnights, I would have pounded the life out of Toronto +9. Instead, I passed on the overnights, and the day of game, looked at the game, loved it, and took Toronto +7 big. Toronto loses by 8. Of course, I deserve that. Classic. I need to not put things off and GET THE BEST LINE! JESUS H. CHRIST!!

Anyway, not so bad, it just sucks that I was up over 6 grand, and now I’m planted, shamefully, firmly back, dead-center, into coin-flipper range. Slightly down, a little under 5 grand. Exactly where I would expect to be if I have absolutely zero edge, and am just a pure coin-flipper. Which may be the case, but I will NOT concede that until this thing is over. I have more than half the rollover to go.

My past good fortune with NBA totals has not been bestowed upon me this year, so with college coming to a close, I will have to be very careful in the NBA, and probably mostly focus on 2H NBA lines, which of course I report as soon as I can in my thread on the forum about this. I will also have to start looking more closely in the NBA, NHL, and MLB sub-forums on the SBR forum for plays.

At any rate, here is an official record update:

 

Rolled Over:	$10,566
% rolled over:	42.3%
rollover left:	$14,434
P/L:	-$346
bankroll:	$4,654
ROI:	-3.0%
W:	29
L:	30
Pct:	49.2%

 

Tonight I have 2 bets still open which I made a few days ago on Sweet 16 games, both for $100. Butler +5, and Marquette/UNC under 149.5. I think they are both solid, I may go a bit bigger on them, but not much bigger.

Took a break from the betting yesterday, got a bunch of action on tonight’s games. Keep up the pressure. Controlled, focused analysis. Prudent-aggressive risk-taking. Conscientious money management. Unbiased value assessment. Bankroll growth maximization. Gambling Gods reverence and deference. SBRForum.com scanning for tips, second and third and fourth opinions, and late-breaking or under-emphasized news items. These are some of the sports wagering investment ideals I assiduously aspire to flawlessly adhere to. Let’s do this.

In college hoops, I did take a small shot with the over in Central Florida/Creighton, 138.5 $100. I’ve been hitting the Creighton overs hard recently, and of course winning with them. This one is a little different though. Central Florida is right now an effective slow-down/defense-oriented team, and they may well be able to alter Creighton’s pace and offensive explosiveness, even on the road. The line has gone down since I bet it, I may take it for a bit more on the over, but if I do it won’t be huge. I did, though, also take Creighton on the spread, bought down to -2 (-140) for $300. Creighton is rolling, and I like them to keep it up, I may take more on their spread or ML by game time. Also took a small shot with Miami Florida/Alabama 1H over 60 for $100. Mostly a gut feeling, and I might add more.

In NBA betting, there are some interesting plays, all of which I may add more to by game time. Atlanta got completely embarrassed yesterday at home against Chicago, and I think it may have smacked some sense into them and I think they’ll try to start off strong tonight. I took them 1Q +2.5 (-115) for $150.

Then I have a lot of action on the Toronto/Phoenix game, all based on the fact that Phoenix played a fast-paced, 3OT game last night, and then traveled. I took under 211 for $150, Toronto +7 for $300, and the Phoenix team total under 109 (-115) for $250. Toronto got embarrassed at Denver on Monday, and hopefully, HOPEFULLY, they’ll have the self-respect-based motivation to give a good showing here, and at least keep it close.

When I made those bets, I felt really good about them, now I’m feeling a little nervous. I am worried that Phoenix’ lethargy will keep them from playing any D at all, and Toronto’s general awfulness will keep them from getting a cover or stopping Phoenix. But we’ll see.

Follow Peter and his plays in the forum!

Grinding it out son. We can do this boys.

Coming off a day where I felt like I should have been a bit more aggressive in my bet size, but can’t let that faze me. Need to keep the pressure on – solid capping, solid picking, appropriate bet-sizing, stay on your game baby, at ALL times.

As of now I have a bunch of NBA and college basketball totals bets in, the biggest is Davidson/Creighton on the over. I got $200 at 136.5 on the overnight, that was the limit at the time, put another $400 at 137.5 on the morning line. I might put a bit more, but probably done with it, but I do think it will close at 140 or so, I think this is a good bet, both teams are scoring well right now, and if I had to take it at 140 I think I’d still hit it pretty big. Very interesting that the first movement on that line was to the under, I wonder if that might have been someone looking to do some line manipulation.

Also took Missouri St/Miami Fla over 133.5 and Rhode Island/Central Florida over 133, both for $100. The URI/UCF line I flubbed. It was 131 on the overnight, and I really wanted the over, but I thought it might get bet down a bit given Central Florida’s O/U year-long record at home, so I held off. I was hoping to see 130 or maybe 129 in the morning and pound the over, but instead I saw 133. It happens. I might hit it for a bit more, but maybe not, we’ll see.

In the NBA, two unders for $150 each – Toronto/Denver 214 and Golden St/San Antonio 211. I think the year-long reputations of the teams involved are making these lines a little on the high side and now is a good time to take shots on the unders with them. Golden St has been a big under trender on the road this year, and their games just aren’t going as high recently as you normally associate with them.

Denver’s been covering spreads like a machine since trading Carmelo, but they’ve also been going under – 2-8 O/U last 10, and Toronto for their part is also 1-5 O/U last 6.

I need some winners out of these, getting closer to being even on this, LET’S DO IT!

Grinding it out baby. Lot of modest plays today, hoping for a small positive day. College dogs and NBA unders. Let’s do this.

In college I got Marquette +4.5 for $150, VCU +9 for $100. Yeah I know everyone is on VCU today, and that is often a red flag. But as you may know from my behind-the-scenes interviews with lines guys over the years, you’ll know that the public has gotten savvier in recent years and that sometimes sides that get one-way public action are sides with value. I’m hoping VCU is one of those and pulls it out. Marquette already beat Syracuse this year, and in general I like taking them as a dog. Slightly concerned about the line movement to 5, but whatever.

In the NBA I have personally gotten burned on unders this year, scoring seems to have been up and overs cashing more than usual, but I’ll take a handful of unders today anyway, things seem to be slowing down a bit in terms of scoring overall recently.

Toronto/OKC 210 $150

NY/Mil 197.5 $100

GS/Dallas 213 $150

Phoenix/LAC 208 $200

Sac/Minn 213.5 $100

I might add a little to any of these before game time, I’m especially thinking about Marquette.

Gonna be a grind. My dreams of a 5-figure cashout are not looking too good, to be honest. Maybe I can start in next week with superhuman focus and dig down and really pop winner after winner and grind this thing to over 5 grand and into striking range of 5 figures. We’ll see.

I took 2 college basketball totals on the overnights last night – San Francisco/Hawaii over 136 for $250 and Cincinnati/Connecticut over 130 for $100. Probably should’ve gone a bit bigger on Hawaii, I might add a little more on it now, even though it’s at 140, it looks like a solid over play.

Cincy/UConn may have been a bad pick, they might play super-tight against each other, both coming from the Big East, but both of their games have been higher scoring in the post-season, so I took a shot with it.

Also, for those keeping score, my Wofford pick was half at 8.5, half at 8, so half of that bet was a push. I’ll update my exact record next week, but the bankroll is about $3,600 at the moment, the rollover is about 25% done.

rfr3sh: Loshak unreal pal I am getting lucky here your streak has to end

CarpeDime (Peter Loshak): r3fsh3r unf**in real pal

36-18 at the half, under 148 loses i suck dude

clips was probably a rash f***n pick yeah i know youre supposed to f***n fade teams off long road trips i just thought the clips' mail-it-in game was the last one, thought they might bounce there

sixers were looking to improve after 2 low-energy losses though

that was a pretty square f***n pick, and for 400 too

f***n team

princeton looking good though, i should have f***n thrown another hundo or two on it

adding f***n N colorado +14.5 $100, Wofford +8.5 $200

those seem like decent shots right?

Ok popped some winners yesterday, finally. No time to celebrate though, need to keep the pressure ON. We are still down boys. No time to relax. We need to KEEP hitting them with winners AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN before we will even THINK of being satisfied.

Two big plays today boys, both college basketball overs. First one is Florida Atlantic and Miami Florida, at 131, for $750. FAU has a couple of spark-plug guards, and should be able to play at a decent pace and have some decent scoring. Miami Florida may have gone low against some of their games facing defense-oriented teams, or facing top teams with a keep-it-close game plan, but against FAU I think we’ll see a more normal pace and a game that’s more likely than not to hit the 130s.

Then roughly the same deal with the second pick, St. Bonaventure and Central Florida, for $500, $200 at 130 and the rest at 131. Central Florida went low against many of the strong defensive teams in the Conference USA, but I think it’s worth a bet that this game is a bit higher-scoring against St. Bonaventure, a team that doesn’t always go high but is often agreeable to that kind of game.

Big bets tonight boys, let’s get ‘em, come on.

Also threw $150 on Princeton +13 for Thursday.

The losing continues. Unreal. Honestly. I feel like Snooki when she couldn’t get a boyfriend, even on Labor Day weekend, and all she could say was “honestly”. Remember that?

She was Snooki, and she couldn’t even get one boyfriend. I am Peter Loshak and I can’t even pick one winner. Honestly. She was Snooki, she should have had like, a million boyfriends, and she couldn’t even get one. I am Peter Loshak, I should have like, a million winners, and I don’t even have one. Well yeah like I had a couple winners 2 weeks ago, but I should like, have them every day. Honestly.

Should I end this analogy now? No I’ll go further with it, a little more. All she wanted was one guy, with muscles and tattoos and tanned, Italian, but who’s also like, a dork. All I want is one game where I pick the over, and it’s more than halfway over by halftime, and then wins with a minute or two still remaining. Do I not deserve that? Honestly.

Anyway, I’ll take 3 shots with 3 overs in minor college hoops tourneys tonight. I like looking for over spots in tourneys like these, a lot of times teams ease up on D more than usual.

San Jose St/Creighton 135 $150

Jacksonville/East Carolina 131.5 $150

Portland/Hawaii 136 $200

I might add others later on, might add more on these, especially the Hawaii game. Come on it’s time for some winners, honestly.

Well the losing continues. No  second-guessing though. You can be a little more thorough in your research until you are back on top of the ebbs and flows.

Tonight I’ll take a shot with Quinnipiac -1 in the CIT opener. Quinnipiac had a disappointing year, and lost their star forward for 7 games. This was supposed to be a special year for Quinnipiac, they had their sights set on the NCAA tournament, but got bounced by Robert Morris for the second year in a row.

But, they’ve had a week to think about it, and I’m hoping they come out and decide to get some atonement by doing well in the CIT. Team motivation is always the a key factor in the minor tournaments, and one that is sometimes hard to get a read on.

But I’ll guess that Quinnipiac looks for some redemption here, and will be able to get it done at home. Buffalo is a solid team with some impressive mid-major players, but Quinnipiac has had success against similar teams this year. A win over Rhode Island and good games against some top America East teams suggests to me that they should be capable against Buffalo. Worth a shot to me for $150.

Pushed with Mississippi St last night – things might be really starting to turn around for me boys! I can feel it! Sort of!

Going to take a shot with Alabama +6.5, $150. Neither team has much depth at all, Kentucky rotates 6, Alabama rotates almost less than that, and they’re off of a tough come-from-behind OT win, so that’s not great.

But Kentucky is young, and they haven’t done well away from home this year. The young guys are admittedly improving a lot at the year wears on, and they will more likely than not pull out a win, but a blowout or a dominant win in my view is significantly less likely. I’m thinking/hoping the game will be pretty close throughout, and relatively low-scoring, and if that is the case, getting 6.5 looms large.

Calipari and the players he gets are awesome though, no denying that, so it’s always a bit risky to go against them, but I’ll take a shot here.

Gonna take a shot with Mississippi St +6 for $150. This one could easily blow up in my face, Miss St is of course a head-case team with talent but off-court and motivational troubles. Still, they’ve cashed more often than not recently, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a dog. They’ve had good games away from home as a dog – outright wins over Arkansas and Tennessee, and a close game as a 17-point dog at Kentucky.

Vanderbilt has talent for sure, and a double-digit blowout where Mississippi St doesn’t show up at all would not be a surprise. But, Mississippi St does have history playing well in the SEC tournament – they were actually 7-0 ATS in their 7 tournament games in ’10 and ’09. And they wound down the regular season this year seeming more cohesive and less affected by internal and external turmoil.

One big negative for Mississippi St is that I’m betting them with this rollover. But hopefully despite that they can make the game go down to the wire and get a cover.

Un…….real. Unreal. My record so far in this is, well I won’t get into specifics, but it’s bad. If I were a bank or a multi-trillion-collar company, I would right now be gathering my accountants to fudge the numbers and make everything look sunshiney on paper. I’m starting to understand the appeal of lying now, actually. Man, I wish I hadn’t made these picks public in my thread on SBRForum, and I could just come back and say “Yeah. Made a bunch of picks. Yeah, doing good. Lots of winners. Making money.”

But the cool thing about the sports betting world, I guess, is that it’s brutally honest. No bailouts, no creative accounting. Alls I can do is stare at my spreadsheet numbers and review whether I am ok with my decisions and whether I need to tweak my thought processes in any way.

I’m mostly getting burned on unders, which is maybe less square-ish than getting burned on overs. The conference tournaments are finishing up, I’ll think I’ll just make a few more picks as I would if I weren’t cold as ice, and then start looking into the basketball and hockey sub-forums at SBR and start tailing a few guys who know what they are talking about.

Rolled Over:	$2,050
% rolled over:	8.2%
rollover left:	$22,950
P/L:	-$1,286
bankroll:	$3,714
current value:	$2,786
ROI:	-62.7%
W:	3
L:	10
Pct:	23.1%

 

Started things off with a loss yesterday. Not too happy about that to be perfectly honest with you, not too happy. Florida Atlantic was up by 7 at the half, I thought I had it. This is really embarrassing. I can deal with losses in my own private betting, quite well, in fact. But this public picking is insane. I feel like I’m all-in on every pick. I don’t know how the touts do it, putting themselves out there every day. Hopefully we’ll get them tonight. None of the plays tonight I love, by any means, but I’m trying to force myself to go with picks I like, and not wait and wait and wait for picks I “love”. But there’s now no doubt in my mind - I care infinitely more about not embarrassing myself with this than I do about any money I might cash out in the end.

Anyway, I’ll take a shot with 3 unders tonight, $200 each. In college hoops, I took Wofford and Charleston at 141. I actually bet this with my regular roll at 142, and was surprised to see it go even higher than that to 142.5. I wonder why, that does make me nervous, someone with influence bet it up, and I’m sure they have a decent reason since the under would probably be the obvious “sharp” call. We’ll see, I went with it anyway, hopefully both teams play tight and conservative.

I also went with Arkansas-Little Rock and Middle Tennessee St at 128. It’s a low total which probably serves to keep it from taking strong money on the under, but Mid Tenn can play strong D-oriented games, and Ark LR could easily agree to that style of play, and if that’s the case, we could easily get one of those 61-53 type of games. OT will be dangerous in this one, but what the hell. WHAT THE HELL! COME ON UNDER!

And then in the NBA, a shot with Houston and Sacramento at 216.5. Houston has been a very high-scoring team this year, usually pushing the pace. Sacramento is also game for that style of play, so sure, this could easily wind up with both teams scoring in the 120s. But Houston has been winning when they play better defense, so I’ll take a shot that they play a bit more defensive-minded and keep the scoring out of the stratosphere.

Well yesterday I punked out on taking Florida International in this rollover (I did bet them a bit with my regular bankroll). Why? Well I did my research and thinking, and then when I saw the line move to 5, I figured someone might or must know something I don’t know. FIU is also a team that relies on so-called “althleticism”, while Denver runs the Princeton offense and relies on so-called “discipline”, and in crunch time I’d lean towards a disciplined team than one that looks impressive athletically during non-crunch time. Oh well, whatever. This is why I am not pro and classic, or at least, this is why I have been less than pro and classic so far.

The line opened at 2, I bet it with my regular bankroll, and was wondering why it was so low. Now it’s moved to 3. I could easily think myself out of playing this one too, but I’ll go with it for $200.

Looking over the huge Saturday NCAA basketball card, there are a few sides from the overnights that caught my eye. The one that's interesting me the most so far is Florida International +4 on the betting odds board against Denver on a neutral court in the Sun Belt conference tourney.

Denver started out the conference season well, but faltered lately, and FIU had a huge string of losses, so glancing at their schedule this year you see "LLLLLLWLLLLL" which has them at the botton of the East division, and I think that's what is making them a decent sized dog here.

BUT.....FIU did play some good teams close during that losing, and has shown that they can repeatedly be competitive to the wire with anyone in the Sun Belt. AND......Denver is notably bad on the road, they had big wins at home but were nothing close to dominant on the road this year.

AND.....Denver's low-scoring style of play often lead to close games. AND......for added confidence, the one game these two did play this year in the regular season went to OT, and it was in Denver.

I'd love to be getting a bit more than 4 to be fully head-over-heels in love with this play, but I have to admit I've fallen pretty hard for it since looking into it last night on the overnights.

Since it's at 10 PM, I'll hold off for a bit to do a little more research. That's very dangerous because I can easily see losing a vital half point or more. But there are a frickin ton of conference tourney games with lines I haven't even looked at yet, so that's what I think I'll do.

I'm also kind of liking Bowling Green +4.5 I'll have to look into that more, and I would like to be liking Mississippi St. -5.5 over South Carolina, but gimme a break. Mississippi St is the biggest head-case team around. For something like this where I want to feel really good about every play I make.....PASS. If I lose a play I want to feel good about having made it. Any time I've bet Mississippi St this year and lost, I've felt like a complete square fool.

Ok that's it, hopefully I'll find some conference tourney sides I like, and hopefully DSI will throw up some totals soon I'm also interested in based on the overnights.