While the USA preps for the onslaught of football as they know, fans Down Under are gearing up for their version of the run to the Super Bowl. First up in the elimination round is Adelaide taking on Essendon.
MATCH FACTS
Friday September 4
Start time 19.45 AEST (9.40 GMT)
THE BIG PICTURE
It's Finals time in the AFL and the first game we are looking at is Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon Bombers. This game isn't without some controversy prior to the first bounce on Friday night. Essendon has elected not to appeal the charges against three of their players captain Matthew Lloyd, Patrick Ryder and Sam Longer for a four-week and two one-week bans consecutively for punches and bumps but that's another story altogether.
The Dons are in the finals for the first time in 5 years, while the Crows are looking to redeem themselves following their embarrassing home game loss last year in the first week of finals, where they finished in the same position at the end of the home and away season.
THE FORM GUIDE (last five matches)
Adelaide (3-2)
- Vs. Carlton (away), 72 point WIN
- Vs. West Coast (home), 74 point WINS
- Vs. Hawthorn (away), 27 point WIN
- Vs. Collingwood (home), 21 point LOSS
- Vs. Geelong (away), 2 point LOSS
Adelaide is the form team so to speak with three wins on the trot including a massive win against a top 8 team in Carlton last weekend. They also had a couple of tough losses to top four teams.
Essendon (2-2-1)
- Vs Hawthorn (home), 17 point WIN *
- Vs. Fremantle (away), 54 point LOSS
- Vs. St Kilda (home), 2 point WIN
- Vs. Brisbane (home), DRAW
- Vs. West Coast (away), 27 point LOSS
The Bombers have been up and down recently, which is reminiscent of their whole season. They are a good team when they don't have to travel, especially after handing the undefeated Saints their first loss of the season after 20 rounds for footy.
ANALYSIS: Big Advantage Adelaide Crows.
*Mention of away game is when team needed to travel interstate, not if it's an away game in home state.
KEY MATCHUPS
The Skinny: Looks like Adelaide will go into the game unchanged, while Essendon will be required to make at least three changes following last week's suspensions.
Maric/Sellar vs. Bellchambers/Hooker
After Ryder's one-week suspension, this is one department where the Bombers will clearly struggle. Maric has been averaging 17.2 hitouts a game and his counter-part Sellar has been averaging 7.2 hitouts. The Bombers with their inexperienced ruck division in Bellchambers and Hooker have been averaging 12.1 hitouts between them.
There is a clear advantage here to the Crows, considering Ryder will miss, he had averaged 20.2 hitouts a game. Maric and Sellar are much more experience and unless Bellchambers has a breakout game in his seventh game this already puts Essendon behind the eight ball.
Back/Forward line vs. the midfield
Essendon takes the cake with their young backline and forward line and the Crows have the upper hand in the midfield. The Crows should have excellent supply to their forward line from the midfield and they should hopefully keep the ball out of their backline as Essendon's midfield is battered, young and does not quite have the runs on the board. Essendon should be able to rebound well and stop the tall forwards, whoever struggle with Adelaide's small as they don't have anyone but Slattery to cover the likes of Knights and Porplyzia.
The likes of Watson, McVeigh and Stanton will need to step up against the Crow's Vince, Thompson and Edwards. If Essendon cannot get good supply into their forward fifty or shutdown Adelaide's midfield their backline will not be able to hang on forever. Adelaide has a distinct advantage here.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Michael Hurley hasn't played many games this year in his AFL debut but he the games he has played with tremendous demeanour and impacted games at just the age of eighteen. Definitely someone to keep an eye on this week as he has positively impacted the team each week he has played. Quoted to be the "Next Big Thing" by AFL legend Leigh Matthews.
Bernice Vince has been in the best form of his life and is in possible Brownlow contention. He absolutely demolished Carlton last week with his gut-running and efficient use of the ball gathering over 30 possesions.
PREDICTION
Adelaide to win comfortably as they are in-form and have almost their full squad to choose from. Essendon is a terrible travelling team and they will be missing several key players.
TIP: Adelaide to win over 39.5 points @ +100
