We are still a ways away from the 2012 midterm elections, but one undeclared candidate is already being declared the favorite by the SBR Forum oddsmakers
. Veteran media icon Lou Dobbs
, formerly of CNN
, has been declared the favorite to win the junior New Jersey senate seat up for grabs in 2012. Dobbs has expressed interest but hasn’t even publicly confirmed he’ll be running in the Garden State. Yet, our handicapping experts believe he has the significant edge over incumbent Democratic Senator Robert Menendez
, for a variety of reasons.
With the Newark Mayor recently laying off hundreds of city workers
, New Jersey residents are growing more and more dissident. Known as an independent-minded critic for many years, Dobbs is a New Jersey resident and has just the right mix of appeal and knowledge of the issues to captivate the state’s voters in a couple of years from now.
Aside from economical issues in the state, Menendez has been the target of voter recall efforts
from the Tea Party. They’re seeking to bring him back up for election sooner than 2012 and have taken the fight to court. For their part, the Menendez team has dismissed the recall campaign as illegitimate. Interestingly enough, Dobbs is set to speak at the Tea Party’s convention
in Las Vegas in July. To date, he has not decided to align himself with any specific party, but was at one time a Republican.
Dobbs has also mentioned running for the presidency in 2012. But generally, aspiring candidates spend some time in the senate or as a governor beforehand.
So, SBR Forum has posted the following political prop odds:
Assuming Lou Dobbs runs against Sen. Robert Menendez in 2012, who will win?
Dobbs -200 (or 1 to 2)
Menendez +180 (or 9 to 5)
Other +1600 (or 16 to 1)
Will Lou Dobbs run for president in 2012?
Yes +400 (or 4 to 1)
No -600 (or 1 to 6)
What political party affiliation will Lou Dobbs run under in 2012?
Republican +300 (3 to 1)
Tea Party +250 (or 5 to 2)
Independent -125 (or 4 to 5)
Libertarian +2000 (or 20 to 1)
"The Lou Dobbs name and political brand resonates with millions of Americans, including in the state of New Jersey," offers Steve Ricci, SBR Oddsmaker. "Lou is an intelligent, no-nonsense voice that appeals to many and we believe he will be considered the perfect agent of change in that state."
While Dobbs doesn’t have the political background to match Menendez, the current state senator has only held the position since he was appointed to take over from Jon Corzine in 2005. Menendez then won his current term in the 2006 midterm elections. Then again, we’ve seen a recent trend of ‘outsiders’ winning seats, so it could bode well for Dobbs that he doesn’t have a political track record to critique.
The one knock on Dobbs has been his sharp criticism of illegal immigration, sometimes angering minority groups that believe he is prejudice. It so happens that Menendez is the state’s first Hispanic senator, so things will certainly be interesting. To his credit, Dobbs has been making overtures to the minority communities in order to clear up any conceptions about his personal views towards various groups.
"The media savvy of Lou Dobbs and his network of influential people should catapult him into public office, should he decide to run."
Got a prop to suggest odds on? Email firstname.lastname@example.org