Reunited for the first time since Wimbledon
and warming up for the US Open
It seems like a long wait for the top four
to get back into action following Wimbledon 2011, but they’re all back and gunning
for glory in Montreal
this week. Will Djokovic continue his hard court domination or can one of the
other names end his run?
Novak Djokovic
After a few weeks break, Novak could return
to a tough test in Montreal
on Tuesday evening. He will most likely
meet Davydenko and although the Serb isn’t afraid of anyone at the moment, he
may have hoped for a slightly easier return to action than he may be handed
here.
Djokovic has won every hard court
tournament he has played in this year and has beaten Nadal, Federer and Murray along the way. The new World No.1 has
enjoyed some well earned rest following his Wimbledon
success and there’s a slight chance he’ll be a little underprepared for this
one. Having said that, you’d have to be very brave to back against the Serb in
2011 and at 9/5 to win the event, I feel he represents good value. Now could
also be the time to get your money on Novak for New York,
because if he wins this week and does well in next week’s event, his odds of
being the Big Apple in New York
will tumble.
Rafa, Roger and Andy
All three men know that, to varying
degrees, they have a lot on their hands to catch Djokovic. Out of the four big
names, it’s Djokovic who appears to have the toughest draw of the week and that
will offer hope to the others. Andy Murray seems to have a very favourable run
through his quarter of the draw, but it has to be noted that he’s dropped out
of the previous two US
hard court Masters events this year, in the first round. I like Murray’s odds of 9/2 and
would be tempted to back him, but 2011 feels like a very risky year to be
placing your earnings on the shoulders of the Scot so be prepared for a bumpy
ride.
Rafa Nadal will still be smarting from his Wimbledon defeat to Djokovic. Five big finals between the
two this year have all gone the Serb’s way but Nadal would certainly have seen
the Wimbledon final as a chance to avenge all four of the other matches in one
swoop. It didn’t happen, and when something doesn’t work out for Rafa, you can
always guarantee he will go away and work on a strategy for making it happen
next time around. Like the other big names, the Spaniard has had a rest and
will be fresh coming into this one. I’m not sure he’ll be up for another final
collision with Djokovic though and if he has been working on something
different, he may well be saving it for the big one in New York. 16/5 are generous odds for the
former World No.1 but I don’t see him going all out for victory this week.
Roger Federer is still to win one of the
big events in 2011 and after looking on top of his game at Wimbledon,
he suddenly found himself losing from a seemingly unbeatable position against
Tsonga in the semis. Federer is the only man to beat Djokovic this year and he
defeated the Serb here just last summer. The pair could meet in a semi-final
showdown again, but it would be a tough ask for him to defeat the current World
No.1 twice in succession. It seems strange to say, but at 9/2, the value just
isn’t there for me with Federer.
The Americans
Plenty of US hopes in action and leading
the way will be Mardy Fish and John Isner. Fish has had a great year, becoming
the US No.1, and Isner arrives in the event having already bagged a couple of
titles and played some of the best tennis of his career over the past six weeks
or so. They’ll both be tough to beat, and we may get to see a Djokovic v Isner
matchup later in the week, which could be fascinating. With Isner at 100/1 and
Fish at 66/1, there’s certainly plenty of value around. Fish maybe has the
easier draw though and could certainly be worth an each way tennis bet.
Other Hopefuls
Juan Martin Del Potro continues his comeback
from injury and is always a danger in the draw. An early clash with Djokovic
could be on the cards here, and if he did manage to overcome the Serb, his
current odds of 16/1 would be a distant memory.
If you’re looking for value in tennis handicapping, the
best bet has to be Australian Bernard Tomic. Having made it to the quarters at Wimbledon, 200/1 are astonishing odds for one of the
games up and coming stars. If he progresses, he’ll need to beat Federer in the
middle of the week, but on recent form, that’s not entirely out of the
question.