Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen: UFC 148 Odds & Predictions

With two titles on the line, and perhaps the most anticipated rematch of the decade, UFC 148 promises to exceed yearly PPV Sales as Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen duke it out one last time.

UFC 148 Rematch: Silva vs. Sonnen 2 

By the time UFC 148 rolls around, it will have been nearly two years since Chael Sonnen was less than 3 minutes away from upsetting the sport’s pound for pound #1 fighter. On July 7^th, the prominent rivalry returns to the MGM Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada as Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen look to settle the score in a rematch. 

In those 2 years since they first met inside the octagon, Chael Sonnen has gone from a 4/1 underdog in their first meeting, to now only a 2/1 dog for the rematch. Though the action has been mostly two way since the line was released, there’s been a general surge in favor of the champion-- books like Betdsi have moved a full 40 cents off their original opener of -235.

Since falling victim to Anderson’s triangle, Sonnen has gone 2-0 by submitting Brian Stann and taking a decision off Michael Bisping. 

The decision over Bisping has been rightly criticized after Sonnen’s performance failed to validate his -450 price-tag. Not only did Sonnen fail to control Bisping for most of the rounds, but he was actually out-muscled against the cage for extended portions of the fight. A different set of judges on that night easily could have prevented this rematch from ever happening. 

Silva, meanwhile, has looked immaculately flawless in recent knockouts over both Yushin Okami and Vitor Belfort. Interestingly enough, bettors flooded the market with Belfort money as Anderson closed around -206 to retain his belt, which was the lowest price we’ve seen during Anderson’s 6 year reign as champion.

At 37 years old, Silva is the oldest UFC champion by nearly a decade, and by his own admission, has already begun counting down his final title defenses. With each outing going forward, you almost have to expect an accelerated decline in both his speed and overall mobility. Whether or not he’s still ripe enough to defeat the man who manhandled him for 4 1/2 rounds remains to be seen.

All things considered, I’m expecting most bettors to overvalue Silva’s alleged rib injury while discrediting how easily he was taken down in the first fight. If you’re a Sonnen backer, you’re hoping to spot a plethora of bacne at the weigh-ins, which in itself could sway a few undecided bettors.

Interim Bantamweight Championship + Griffin/Ortiz Trilogy

Dominick Cruz’s recently torn ACL has forced the UFC to create an interim title between Urijah Faber and an unannounced opponent. For now, it’s looking like either Michael McDonald or Renan Barao will be getting the next shot at "The California Kid".  

Both contenders have just one defeat on their records and have show dynamic progression throughout their brief MMA careers.

Given their assumed underdog roles against Faber, I’d gladly back either challenger as a dog. While I give Barao a better chance at the upset, I wouldn’t be surprised if Faber mistakenly decided to exchange hands for too long with McDonald. Chances are any UFC betting value on Faber will be limited to decision props.

In a loser-retires-match, the most unwarranted trilogy in the history of the sport will go down between Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz.

Sadly, it appears as though Ortiz may be the only one still committed to trying to win fights. Anyone who watched Griffin’s last fight with Shogun knows that his heart is no longer in it, as he’s now been brutally knocked out in three of his last 5 bouts.