The UFC heads to Canada, where native George St. Pierre will headline the event.
It doesn’t seem to matter where the UFC decides to hold an event, the response is overwhelming. The latest international venue is the Rogers Centre, home of the Toronto Blue Jays, but instead of filthy pitches there will be nasty punches, and while no bats will be broken, don’t be surprised if a few bones are cracked.
It’s the UFC and native Canadian son George St. Pierre is the draw…a
very big draw as 55,000 seats were snapped up within minutes and a record
setting gate of over 11 million dollars smashed all MMA gate and attendance
records. GSP will be welcomed home like
a conquering hero and Jake Shields will play the role of the villain whether he
likes it or not.
The UFC welterweight
strap is on the line and most in attendance would have purchased tickets even
if this were the only fight on the card but for those whose roots are not so steeped
in Canadian soil, there is another championship title fight. Featherweight champ Jose Aldo will defend his
crown against veteran cage warrior Mark Hominick. In addition, 47 year old UFC legend Randy
Couture will test his middle aged body yet again and duke it out with former
UFC light heavyweight champ Lyoto Machida.
Rounding out the main card will be a pair of featherweights, Canadian
(are you sensing a theme here?) Mark Bocek versus American Ben Henderson in a
lightweight tilt.
UFC Welterweight Championship
George “Rush” St. Pierre -575
Jake Shields +375
It’s hard to
lay almost 6 to 1 on any team or anybody.
If you’re a veteran gambler – check that – a savvy veteran gambler, then
you simply don’t. Conversely, there are
those contrarians who look for value and will bet the big dog if the payoff is
enticing enough. I say, there is no
value in losing. Therefore, fights like
this should be enjoyed for what they are and not as a means to increase our
bankroll when it comes to UFC betting.
G-S-P, three
of the most distinctly recognizable initials in MMA history. If BJ Penn is a prodigy then St. Pierre is a
natural born phenomenon. George St.
Pierre (21-2) sits atop the MMA mountain, sharing space with only Anderson
Silva. In a sport that has become
defined as a hybrid of various martial arts disciplines, GSP is more than even
that. He’s a shape-shifter equipped to
call upon any number of disciplines he’s mastered in order to implement and
execute the very one that will assure his hand is raised and his opponent
thoroughly defeated.
If we’re
looking to nitpick, we can point to his last three victories being won by
decision and not by a stunning submission or a devastating blow. That picayune detail should be mitigated by
the fact that his opponents are not just good fighters but number one
contenders all trying to wrest the crown from his shiny head.
Some may
point to the two losses on his record.
The first was over 6 years ago to a man who was similarly lauded at the
time as one of the greatest to ever grace the cage. Matt Hughes submitted the upstart St. Pierre
and defended the same welterweight championship he now holds. No shame there. However, the second loss is much more
difficult to stomach. After avenging his
defeat to Hughes at UFC 65, his first defense of the title was against Matt
Serra. Serra TKO’ed GSP half way through
the first round and was crowned the new UFC welterweight champion.
Yuck!
That’s like finding out your supermodel girlfriend spent the night with
the drummer of a garage band a long time ago.
Serra is just not a likeable character and GSP is exactly the kind of
guy you would pay to shut him up not watch him get beat down. Well, it took a little over a year and a few
more wins to get a rematch with Serra but GSP learned from his mistakes and
returned the favor with a TKO which left Serra’s head wrapped in bandages while
St. Pierre’s waist was wrapped with the UFC welterweight championship belt.
Jake Shields
(26-4-1) is the only thing standing in the way of a mega super fight between
GSP and Anderson Silva. If they got
55,000 fans for this card, Dana White had better rent out the Las Vegas strip
for that one. Shields is the former
Elite XC welterweight champion and the former Strikeforce middleweight champion
which is like saying he’s a great prospect but let’s see how he does in the
bigs. Well, he made his debut in the
major leagues of MMA with a split decision over Martin Kampmann at UFC
121.
Not exactly a convincing victory
but nevertheless, a good win over a very good fighter. Though Shields has toiled in the minor
leagues of MMA, it would be unfair to ignore the fact that he has not lost a
match since 2004. That’s an awful long
time and the 15 consecutive wins he’s amassed in that time span gives him
plenty of street cred and he should be considered a worthy opponent for
GSP.
If Shields
does win this fight he won’t win by a knockout.
He has only 3 knockouts on his resume and GSP won’t be his fourth. Shields has the requisite black belt in BJJ
and a wrestling background therefore, he has to be considered a threat to win
by submission. Ah, who am I
kidding?! I’ll let Dana White’s public
relations people hype this fight, as for me, I’ll look for GSP to reward his
countrymen with a big time knockout over a game but less talented Jake Shields.
UFC Featherweight Championship
Jose Aldo -380
Mark Hominick +300
Jose Aldo
(18-1) currently holds the UFC featherweight title and for good reason. He may weigh only 145 pounds but he hits like
a solid middleweight. A Muay Thai
practitioner, he is fond of burying opponents under a blizzard of knees and
elbows. Twelve of his 18 wins have been
knockouts and though he may be an inch shorter than his opponent Mark Hominick,
he holds an inch and a half reach advantage.
Aldo has not lost in over 5 years and has defeated such WEC luminaries
as former champions Mike Brown and Urijah Faber. His last defense came before the big UFC/WEC
merge when he KO’ed Manvel Gamburyan in September of last year.
Mark
Hominick (20-8) has put together a laudable 5 fight winning streak and his last
victory may have been his most impressive.
He scored a technical knockout over former training partner George Roop
shortly after the two touched gloves in the first round. Hominick’s primary discipline is kickboxing
with Muay Thai interspersed for good measure.
Of his 20 wins, nine have come by knockout and 7 by submission.
These two
look to stand toe to toe and when that happens, well, just about anything can
happen. Hominick can certainly send Aldo
to sleep if he catches him flush but Aldo has come out unscathed against even
better opponents. The only way Hominick
wins this one is if he can get Aldo to the mat and into one of his patented
armbars or triangle chokes. But I think
Aldo is too quick, too strong and too savvy.
On top of that, he’s just too good.
Aldo knocks out Hominick in round
2.
Light Heavyweights
Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida -325
Randy “The Natural” Couture +250
When Lyoto
Machido (16-2) knocked out one of my MMA favorites, Rashad Evans, to win the
UFC light heavyweight championship, I took a deep breath and said “Wow!” He then defended his title against Shogun and
earned a unanimous decision.
Impressive. But then Shogun got
the rematch and knocked Machida out in the first round. Machida still reeling from his first loss in
the Octagon, lost a controversial split decision to Rampage Jackson. The former champ will walk into UFC 129 with
two consecutive losses hanging over his head.
Randy “The
Natural” Couture (19-10) looks like the army sergeant in every war movie ever
made. He’s the boyfriend’s worst
nightmare when he takes the girl home late and waiting with a scowl is her none
too pleased daddy…that’s Mr. Couture to you son. He’s a man’s man, a product of the Northwest
and a former member of the United States Army to boot. He’s one of the main reasons why the sport
has evolved to where it is today. He’s a
true legend in a sport that may toss that moniker out just a bit too
frequently.
That being
said, it’s time to go. His last two
fights were against similarly middle aged men in Mark Coleman and boxer James
Toney. Not surprisingly, he defeated
both with relative ease. If there were a
Senior’s division, I’d be rooting him on until he decided to walk away. But now he faces an unorthodox fighter in a
man 15 years his junior and someone who could turn the lights out for good.
Of course, Couture, being the consummate
grappler could twist Machida into knots and submit him like he has submitted
many other world class fighters. But if
he doesn’t, it will be his 11th loss in only 30 fights. That’s not the kind of win percentage I like
to see in my legends. Machida in a
knockout.