UFC 146: Parlays & Prop Betting Picks

This Saturday Junior Dos Santos will enter his first title defense as a 5:1 betting favorite against Frank Mir. Tune in to find out exactly why we think that’s an optimal price for anchoring several of our key parlay on the night.

UFC 146: Parlay & Prop Betting 

With the official release of the remaining undercard lines for UFC 146, we now have a full slate of action to sift through as we narrow down our key value based UFC betting parlays and final prop options.

For starters, I like a parlay between heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos and Brazilian lightweight Edson Barboza, which should come out to around -250 depending on what book you’re using.

I think we can fully expect Dos Santos to finish this fight with in the first 2 rounds of the match. I’ expecting the disparity in hand speed to be immediately apparent from the very first exchange of the fight. Mir’s either getting countered by a big overhand right, or he’s gonna walk right into one of Junior’s lead uppercuts. I’d also play the props on Fight won't start round 4 at -513, and Dos Santos wins inside distance at -340.

With  Barboza, I expect his unique brand of muay thai to completely set the tone early as he work Varner’s lead leg while sitting down on his big right had counter anytime Jamie gets overzealous after feeling the pain from those kicks. He’s gonna want immediate retaliation after he eats those first few leg kicks and that’s when I expect him to be primed for knockout.

However, Varner’s durability has been a key attribute throughout his career, which is why I also have plays on  Varner/Barboza goes 3 round distance at -135, and a possible insurance bet on Varner by decision at +600 or higher.

Our second parlay will be on Jacob Volkman at -215, combined with Diego Brandao at UFC odds of -265. I’d also like to advise a straight bet on Volkmann at anything under -235.

Volkmann’s top control is simply too elite for a two-trick pony like Paul Sass, which is why we’ve seen the line climb nearly 50 cents from the -150 opener.

All Jacob needs focus on is staying cautious of Paul’s triangle and heel hook and he should be fine. I’d say the most likely scenario here is him grinding out a decision, but a late round submission certainly isn’t out of the question if he can wear Sass out enough in the first two rounds.

The last leg with Diego Brandao is another play where I also plan on playing the over 2.5 rounds with a possible insurance bet on Darren Elkins by decision. Simply put, I just can’t see the guy who was rocked from a telegraphed uppercut from Tiequan Zhang surviving Diego’s typically violent onslaught in the first round. However, with the unknowns surrounding Diego’s cardio, Elkin’s decision prop might also show minimal value.

PROPS & Potential Dog Plays

Daniel Pineda at +135 is the first dog play I’d lock up on the UFC 146 fight card. 

I think this is a case of two fighter’s who are on opposite paths at this current stage of their careers, leaving me no choice but to side with Pineda’s youth and the dynamic progression he’s displayed in  his last few fights. I can see him ending this fight with a big shot early, or simply out pointing Brown with his speed and higher output.

Next up is pair of heavyweights who I can both see edging out a decision with takedown late in their fights.

My first play is on Velasquez wins by 3 round decision at +405. If he goes back to a similar game plan to the one he him implemented against Cheick Kongo and Ben Rothwell, then I can definitely see him grinding Big Foot Silva out for the entire three rounds. Silva has shown decent recovery while Velasquez has never really displayed big power outside of knocking out Nogueira.

Miocic wins by 3 round decision, meanwhile, has been hovering around +263. As long as neither guy gets knocked out in the first round, I see Miocic slowly gravitating more towards clinching and scoring takedown going into the second round

For a straight bet on the undercard, at -126 Dan Hardy is showing just enough value to pull the trigger. I just don’t see Ludwig responding well to Dan’s left hook. While he’s certainly capable of out pointing Hardy for three rounds, Dan’s superior physical presence in the pocket should be the difference in the fight.