This Saturday Junior Dos Santos will enter his
first title defense as a 5:1 betting favorite against Frank Mir. Tune in to
find out exactly why we think that’s an optimal price for anchoring several of
our key parlay on the night.
UFC 146: Parlay & Prop Betting
With the official release of the remaining
undercard lines for UFC 146, we now have a full slate of action to sift through
as we narrow down our key value based UFC betting parlays and final prop options.
For starters, I like a parlay between heavyweight
champion Junior Dos Santos and Brazilian lightweight Edson Barboza,
which should come out to around -250 depending on what book you’re using.
I think we can fully expect Dos Santos to finish
this fight with in the first 2 rounds of the match. I’ expecting the disparity
in hand speed to be immediately apparent from the very first exchange of the
fight. Mir’s either getting countered by a big overhand right, or he’s gonna
walk right into one of Junior’s lead uppercuts. I’d also play the props on
Fight won't start round 4 at -513, and Dos Santos wins inside distance at
With Barboza, I expect his unique brand of
muay thai to completely set the tone early as he work Varner’s lead leg while
sitting down on his big right had counter anytime Jamie gets overzealous after
feeling the pain from those kicks. He’s gonna want immediate retaliation after
he eats those first few leg kicks and that’s when I expect him to be primed for
However, Varner’s durability has been a key
attribute throughout his career, which is why I also have plays on
Varner/Barboza goes 3 round distance at -135, and a possible insurance
bet on Varner by decision at +600 or higher.
Our second parlay will be on Jacob Volkman at
-215, combined with Diego Brandao at UFC odds of -265. I’d also like to advise a straight
bet on Volkmann at anything under -235.
Volkmann’s top control is simply too elite for a
two-trick pony like Paul Sass, which is why we’ve seen the line climb nearly 50
cents from the -150 opener.
All Jacob needs focus on is staying cautious of
Paul’s triangle and heel hook and he should be fine. I’d say the most likely
scenario here is him grinding out a decision, but a late round submission
certainly isn’t out of the question if he can wear Sass out enough in the first
The last leg with Diego Brandao is another play
where I also plan on playing the over 2.5 rounds with a possible insurance bet
on Darren Elkins by decision. Simply put, I just can’t see the guy who was
rocked from a telegraphed uppercut from Tiequan Zhang surviving Diego’s
typically violent onslaught in the first round. However, with the unknowns
surrounding Diego’s cardio, Elkin’s decision prop might also show minimal
PROPS & Potential Dog Plays
at +135 is the first dog play I’d lock up on the UFC 146 fight card.
I think this is a case of two fighter’s who are
on opposite paths at this current stage of their careers, leaving me no choice
but to side with Pineda’s youth and the dynamic progression he’s displayed
in his last few fights. I can see him ending this fight with a big shot
early, or simply out pointing Brown with his speed and higher output.
Next up is pair of heavyweights who I can both
see edging out a decision with takedown late in their fights.
My first play is on Velasquez wins by 3 round
decision at +405. If he goes back to a similar game plan to the one he him
implemented against Cheick Kongo and Ben Rothwell, then I can definitely see
him grinding Big Foot Silva out for the entire three rounds. Silva has shown
decent recovery while Velasquez has never really displayed big power outside of
knocking out Nogueira.
Miocic wins by 3 round decision, meanwhile, has
been hovering around +263. As long as neither guy gets knocked out in the first
round, I see Miocic slowly gravitating more towards clinching and scoring
takedown going into the second round
For a straight bet on the undercard, at -126 Dan Hardy
is showing just enough value to pull the trigger. I just don’t see Ludwig
responding well to Dan’s left hook. While he’s certainly capable of out
pointing Hardy for three rounds, Dan’s superior physical presence in the pocket
should be the difference in the fight.
Finally, for our bonus parlay between Bellator
and UFC 146, I like Rick Hawn at -330 parlayed with Dos Santos. Look for Hawn’s
sharper counters and clear strength advantage to wear Brent Weedman out for a
likely decision, or late TKO.