UFC 147 Betting: Fight Card Odds & Predictions

The fight card for UFC 147 as seem more changes than Joan Rivers' face has. Here is a final look at the card as it stands now, along with some of our predictions and picks of who will come out on top.

Middleweight finalists Cezar Ferreira and Sergio Moraes, and featherweight contestants Rony Bezerra and Godofredo Castro will compete for a 6 figure contract in the first ever TUF Brazil finale at UFC 147. 

Aside from the Wanderlei Silva vs. Rich Franklin main event, lets look at some of the night's other fights and decide how we should place our UFC picks.

UFC 147: TUF Brazil Finalists

The first season of TUF Brazil concludes this Saturday as the 4 finalists from both the middleweight and featherweight division prepare to compete for a 6 figure contract and a spot on the UFC roster at UFC 147 in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. 

First, we have our middleweight finale in which Vitor Belfort’s number one pick, Cezar Ferreira (-255), will be facing off one of the season’s most accomplished grapplers in Sergio Moraes (+195). 

Ferreira was originally set to take on Daniel Sarafian in the finale, before an undisclosed injury sidelined Sarafian from the card, allowing Sergio, who was knocked out by a flying knee from Sarafian in the semifinals, to take his place and reenter the competition. 

In addition to the middleweight clash between Cezar and Segio, we also have the featherweight finale, where Rony Bezerra (-305) is scheduled to meet the aggressive submission attack Godofredo Castro (+235). 

As expected, both finales will be featured on the maincard alongside the night’s main attraction between Wanderlei Silva and Rich Franklin.

Middleweight finale Prediction

Out of the entire cast, Cezar Ferreira proved to possess the most natural athleticism this season. His raw strength and quick transitions from the clinch were apparent early on in his very first fight to earn a spot on the show. 

He’s a rangy southpaw with a considerable size advantage over most of his opponents. Though his hands and overall striking are fairly average, he manages to play to his strengths by properly utilizing his size advantages in the clinch, and by attacking from unorthodox angles with an active kicking game. 

In his last fight, which earned him his spot in Saturday’s finale, he beautifully disguised a left head-kick that knocked his opponent out just minutes into the first round. 

That same size advantage and unorthodox striking is also the main the reason he’s so heavily favored over Sergio in the finale. At current UFC odds, the line implies he takes this fight around 73% of the time, which is hard to argue considering how one dimensional his opponent ended up showing himself to be throughout this contest. . 

That said, I’m not completely sold on Cezar’s takedown defense, and all Sergio needs is one takedown to finish this fight. You also have to factor in the amount of high risk, low reward kicks that Cezar enjoys throwing so much, which should provide Sergio with even more opportunities to latch on for a well timed takedown attempt.

I think a small play is warranted on Cezar at current odds. As a blackbelt himself, he should at least prove competent enough to fight off the majority of Sergio’s submission attempts if put on his back early in the fight. 

Play on Cezar Ferreira -255 @ Bookmaker.com

Featherweight Finale: Bezerra vs. Castro

Of the two featherweight finalists, Rony Bezerra in my opinion endured the tougher, more credible route to this weekend’s finale.

His last fight with Hugo Wolverine, where he went on to secure a convincing 3 round decision, was a proper display of a more complete skill set that his current opponent Godofredo Castro.

In that fight, Bezerra ended up controlling the center of the cage while rocking Hugo several time throughout all three rounds.

His most prevalently utilized strikes are: a counter straight right, a surprisingly accurate front kick, which he rocked Hugo with twice in their fight, and frequent flying knee attempts-- though we can probably expect less of those considering the relative height of Castro. 

Godofredo best shot in this fight, meanwhile, will come from his hyper aggressive submission attack. 

Seven of his 8 bouts have ended in the first round with the majority of his victories coming by way of early submission. He has quick, agile hips and a propensity to particularly hunt for armbars and triangles of his back. He’s also shown that he’s not afraid to shoot for a quick double at the beginning of rounds. 

The most concerning issues I see for him in this match-up is his tendency to give up position with his aggressiveness on the mat, and his somewhat lackadaisical striking defense. While I feel both men are still very raw, unrefined strikers, Bezerra seems a bit moiré resilient and should have an edge in power. Unless Castro locks something up early in the first round, I see him getting TKO’d late due to Bezerra’s superior cardio and relentless flurries.