After 14 years since their first encounter, what can Wanderlei Silva do to prevent being repeatedly knockout against Vitor Belfort in the rematch? And in the Co-Main Event, find out who’s coming in at nearly -500 between Fabricio Werdum and the recently unbeaten Mike Russow.
UFC 147: Vitor Belfort vs. Silva 2
It’s been nearly 14 years since a 22 year old
Wanderlei Silva was first introduced to the quick hands of Vitor Belfort at UFC
17 - Ultimate Brazil. At the time, both men were the hottest prospects to come
out of Brazil and were expected to be integral pieces in helping develop the
UFC from its infancy.
As we all know, Wanderlei overzealously charged
Belfort and was greeted by a lighting quick flurry of straights that sent him
reeling into the cage. Less than a minute into his UFC debut Silva was left
sprawled out against the cage in what would be the first of 5 brutal knockouts
suffered up to this point in his career.
Though roughly the same age, there’s no
question whose body and overall skillset has eroded the furthest over the last
few years. Belfort’s only been legitimately KO’d once in his career whereas
Silva in the last 6 years alone has been finished by Mirko’s head kick, Dan
Henderson’ right hand, Rampage Jackson’s counter left hook and most recently by
an uppercut from Chris Leben.
Even some of Wandy’s loyalist supporters seem
to be giving him very little chance in this upcoming rematch. Oddsmakers opened
Belfort as high as -300 with the action being fairly one way since the line was
released. So far we’ve seen a general push of around 25 cents on Belfort across
Really, there are only two marginally valid
reasons for even considering placing your UFC picks on Wandy here.
First, in light of how good Michael Bisping has
looked recently, the fact that Wandy took a decision off him is looking more
and more impressive by the day. However, you have to consider that more than
anything Bisping’s lack of punching power probably had more to do with that
Then there’s the possibility of Silva having a
slight cardio advantage if this makes it out of the first round.
It’s important to remember that Belfort has not
been out of the first round in his last 5 fights, which spans over the course
of 3 years. Despite a rough weight cut in his last fight, I thought he gassed a
lot harder than he should have late in the first round against Rumble. In fact,
the main reason he was able to finish was because he was only slightly less
fatigued than Johnson at the end of the round.
At least with Wandy, in the last 3 years we’ve
see him go three rounds twice against Rich Franklin and Bisping. If there’s one
play I can possibly see having a small amount of value on Silva it would have
to be the round 2 prop at 5dimes. At the end of the day though, there’s just
one too many sign pointing to Silva getting put away early. The first time
these two exchange blows in the pocket could very well be the end for Silva.
UFC PLAY: Vitor Belfort -350 & under 2.5
Co-Main Event: Mike Russow vs.
Fabricio Werdum will be returning for the
second fight on his latest UFC contract against the surprisingly undefeated
Mike Russow—3-0 in the UFC.
There’s really only reason you need for
avoiding putting your money on Russow in this match: Anyone who gasses as
horribly as he did in his last fight with Einemo is to be avoided until they’ve
demonstrated a drastic improvement in their conditioning. In fact, it’s quite
possible we see that fight go down as the worst display of cardio in UFC
However, you do have to somewhat give him the
benefit of the doubt considering in his two previous fights he was able to stop
both Jon Madsen and Todd Duffee towards the end of those matches. He
proved against Duffe that he can indeed carry his power with him late in a
fight by handing the then top prospect his first knockout loss in the third
With that said, Fabricio Werdum at -500 is
simply not a price I’m willing to lay on the Brazilian. I still think he’s
entirely too hittable and offers very little in the stand-up department outside
of his clinch and leg kicks. His punches, meanwhile, are astonishingly slow and
labored, constantly leaving huge opening for any half decent counter puncher to
As predictable as Russow can be with his right
hand, I can still see it sneaking through and repeatedly finding a home
throughout the fight. Watching him bust up someone like Jon Madsen as a +250
underdog was a bit of an eye opener as far as his capabilities on the feet. It
may have not been anything overly impressive, but it was enough for me to think
he has a better chance at hanging on the feet with Werdum than many seem to
If he can avoid getting trapped in Werdum’s
clinch like Roy Nelson, I can indeed see Russow edging out a possible split
decision if he also successfully manages to mix in the odd/late round takedown.
However, Russow would have to show up in the best shape of his career for me to
maybe consider the long odds on a decision prop. Right now I’m picking Werdum
but have no interest on betting this fight.
UFC Pick: Fabricio Werdum