The UFC’s second event on FOX delivers not one, but two title eliminators. Find out if Rashad Evans and Chael Sonnen can live up to the heavy UFC betting odds in their favor.
UFC ON FOX 2: Rashad
Evans vs. “Mr. Wonderful”
Rashad Evans is just one step away from his year long quest
to challenge current light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Despite rumblings of
Dan Henderson leapfrogging him for the title shot, Dana White clarified that
Evans is without question next in line if he beats the undefeated Phil Davis in UFC on Fox 2.
Sportsbooks opened the line for this fight around -145. The
action since then has been largely in favor of Evans. After a bit of back and
forth movement the line is now starting to reveal its true colors. The UFC odds for Evans are now
above -150 at just about every book and has jumped to -180 over at Bodog. I’m
expecting a late UFC betting surge to universally push this line over -160.
There’s no mystery as to who the more complete fighter is
here. The real question is whether or
not Phil’s superior wrestling credentials are enough to negate the rest of his
comparative deficiencies.
Davis burst onto the MMA scene is 2010 by effortlessly
dominating former WEC champion Brian Stann. He’s since gone on to secure 4
straight victories, including a signature win over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
back in March.
The former Penn State wrestling champion is all about
securing his takedowns while maintaining top control .His striking, however, is
still considered to frenetic and predictable. Davis loves to throw a heavy right head kick while targeting his left to
the body. He’s yet to land flush with it but you can see that there’s some
serious torque behind the strike. If I was Evans this would be the only strike from
Phil that worries me. Phil’s punches, on
the other hand, are a bit labored and carry very little steam behind them.
In the Nogueira fight, Davis was unable to secure a single
takedown until the second half of the fight, as his double legs were effortlessly
shrugged off. He wasn’t able to drag Nog down until he started turning the
corner on his single-legs. The inability to take Nog down early in that fight is
directly factored into the line against Evans. I truly believe the trouble he
had taking Nog down accounted for at least a 15 cent shift in price. Otherwise
we may have seen this line stay right around even.
Rashad is simply too seasoned for Davis at this point his
career. I think he tactfully counters Phil’s frenetic kicks while evading the
majority of his takedowns. Look for him to either land a big shot in the second
round or control the pace for three rounds in route to a decision.
Free UFC Pick: Rashad Evans -150 (@ 5dimes.com)
Chael Sonnen vs. Michael Bisping
Chael Sonnen now gets the match-up he so desperately sought
for. An injury to Mark Munoz has
realigned the card so that Sonnen now faces Michael Bisping to determine the
number one contender for middleweight champion Anderson Silva.
At the moment, Bodog is one of the few sports betting shops hanging a line.
Rag-dolling Okami and nearly taking Anderson the distance has led to the -450
price-tag we’re seeing today. It’s worth noting that this is the highest price
we’ve seen on Sonnen since transitioning to the UFC. In fact, you’d have to go
back nearly 4 years against Bryan Baker to see the last time Sonnen was priced
this high.
From the opening bell, Bisping is going to be met with
swarming aggression. Within the first 10 seconds against Brian Stann, Sonnen was
able to bull-rush him into the cage. Once again he was able to demonstrate one
of the more terrifying body locks at middleweight, as he effortlessly threw
Stann around the cage. He was able to achieve full-mount at least once and took
Brian’s back on three separate occasions.
Bisping, meanwhile, has shown some of the most capable
takedown defense to come out of England. You’d have to go back to UFC 73 against
Matt Hamill to see the last time he faced a capable wrestler. In that fight he
was taken down at least 4 times, but each time was able to scramble back to his
feet. I’d even say his ability to scramble back to his feet probably surpasses
his actual takedown defense.
Even if Bisping stuffs Chael’s early shots I think Sonnen can
hold his own in the striking department. He has a tricky right hand which snuck
through against Okami and briefly staggered Anderson Silva. My advice is to
wait a few days and hope that Sonnen drops another 30 cents or so. I’m not
adding Bisping with my UFC picks, but at the same time don’t see much value at Sonnen’s current
price.
Free UFC pick: Chael Sonnen SU