UFC on Fuel TV 4: Fight Card Odds & Predictions

The UFC on Fuel TV 4 arrives on July 11, featuring the undefeated Chris Weidman taking on Mark Munoz. Replacing Brandon Vera, the Mexicutioner Joey Beltran returns to UFC as a light heavweight and goes up against James Te Huna.

Weidman vs. Munoz

Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman match up almost perfectly. Both have wrestling and BJJ backgrounds and both have power in their hands although Munoz has a more prolific knockout record by virtue of the fact that he has been around the game longer.

Chris Weidman (8-0, 2 KO's, 3 Subs) is still a relative newcomer to the UFC, yet he has made plenty of noise. He is 4-0 in the major leagues of MMA and he has two submissions to his credit while earning two decisions. But perhaps what is even more impressive, is that three of those fights he took on short notice as a replacement and won every time. He has exceptional wrestling skills (former JUCO and Division 1 All-American) and has competed in high level jiu-jitsu competitions with only a few years under his belt. 

Weidman is not known for his punching power, but he shoudn’t be underestimated as evidenced by his first round TKO of banger Uriah Hall when he captured the Ring of Combat middleweight title. Weidman's last opponent, Demian Maia, has been a UFC stalwart for the last several years and once fought unsuccessfully for the middleweight title against Anderson Silva. While Maia had assumed the gatekeeper's role in the middleweight division, until he recently dropped into the welterweight division, Weidman handled him expertly and won a convincing decision as a replacement back in January of this year. 

Mark Munoz (12-2, 6 KO's, 1 Sub) has earned the nickname the Filipino Wrecking Machine with half of his 12 victories coming by way of knockout. Like his opponent Chris Weidman, he too is a former D-1 All-American and also defeated Demian Maia by unanimous decision. Munoz's last appearance in the Octagon was a second round stoppage of UFC veteran Chris Leben by TKO. Munoz has only one submission on his record and has done most of his damage with his fists, which is unusual for a wrestler with his pedigree.  

The Pick:

While both Munoz and Weidman are evenly matched, it would appear that Munoz possesses the edge in punching power. Both men have excellent mat games, but Munoz has been taken down by fighters who have far less pedigree and wrestling expertise. Weidman will allow no safe haven for Munoz on the ground and will also use his 2 inch height advantage as well as his 6 inch reach advantage to keep Munoz from launching his devastating uppercuts and crosses. 

It should also be noted that, though Munoz has more cage experience, he also has a lot more wear and tear on his 34 year old body. Weidman is 28-years-old, in his prime and also has the luxury of training for a particular fighter instead of getting notice only weeks in advance which has been the norm since he entered the UFC.  I believe Weidman will derail the Filipino Wrecking Machine by either decision or submission. Play Weidman -130. 

Joey Beltran vs. James Te Huna

The Mexicutioner, Joey Beltran, is back, and this time he’s leaner and supposedly meaner. Beltran lost 4 of his last 5 UFC fights and that kind of a record never bodes well for employment in Dana White’s organization. And so Beltran got his ticket punched out of the UFC, and that decision made Beltran reconsider his tenure in the heavyweight decision. He returns to the UFC as a light heavyweight after winning his first bout in a unanimous decision over Anton Talamante under the C3 Fights banner on April 28 of this year. Beltran is a replacement for Brandon Vera who was pulled in order to fight Shogun in August.