UFC on FX 2 betting odds & picks: Alves vs. Kampmann

UFC on FX 2: Thiago “Pitbull” Alves vs. Martin “Hitman” Kampmann

March 3rd marks the UFC’s return to Sydney, Australia as Thiago Alves collides with Danish welterweight, Martin Kampmann.

On Jan 14th, Nick Kalikas opened the UFC betting lines at -110 on Alves. The action since then has steadily favored Thiago, with an overall shift of around 20 cents. Currently, most sportsbooks are sitting at -128 after falling from -140 late last week. My guess is that the UFC odds will continue to trend in Thiago’s favor until reaching up to -155 after the weigh-ins. 

Their respective performance against Rick Story is what’s skewed the line here in my opinion. Martin deserves credit for doing a better job at circling and fighting his way off the cage but in now way does that justify his current price.

Aside from a slight power advantage, Thiago Alves has also displayed a tighter overall defense between the two. Although Kampmann counters well backing up, his defense gets a bit leaky once you put enough pressure on him. In his last two fights, Rick Story and Diego Sanchez both managed to hurt Marin while pressuring him against the cage.

Kampmann’s striking is as clean and precise as you’ll see in the welterweight division. At times he likes to lead out with his right hook and shortens his straight right nicely for the counter. I consider him to be a slightly better counter puncher than Alves but he’s also shown that he can stalk and go on the attack once he finds the proper range with his right.

Alves, meanwhile, is an equally equipped striker with an overall edge in power. One of the more distinct advantages he has over Kampmann is ability to utilize his heavy outside leg kicks. He generates what I consider to be some of the nastiest torque and whip behind his right outside leg kick.

He also keeps a high guard where his hands are usually perfectly positioned to defend and deflect opposing strikes. He fights well of the jab, and times his left hook counter quite well anytime he’s being pressured.

Both men have slightly underrated takedown ability but I give Kampmann an overall edge in the grappling department. I don’t think he can hold Alves down if he does happen to earn a takedown, however he’s probably the more likely of the two to lock in a submission.

At the current odds I have to advise a medium size sports betting play on Alves here. I think the combination of his powerful leg kicks and the power behind his basic combinations will be enough to earn him at least a decision. Kampmann’s counter ability may very well be the difference here but I would have to see an offering of +145 or higher before even considering a play on him

UFC Pick: Thiago Alves -128 (at Pinnacle.com)

Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian “Uncle Creepy” Mccall

Stage 1 of the UFC’s Flyweight Tourney kicks off with Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian Mccall to determine which fighter advances to the championship against either Joseph Benavidez or Yasuhiro Urushitani.

Since opening at -280, the action has been largely in favor of Johnson. At the moment he’s priced as high as -370 at 5dimes and a low as -350 at Pinnacle.

A lot of that has to do with the casual fans relative familiarity with Johnson’s recent accomplishments; however, he also holds a considerable wrestling advantage to go along with the quicker strikes and more diverse kicking attack.

In the Dominick Cruz fight, Johnson did an excellent job at pressuring the champion into the fence where he managed to briefly score a few takedowns of his own. He was perfectly feinting in with his lead hook while stringing together his 3 and 4 punch/kick combinations. The fact that his speed was able to bother a striker like Cruz was unquestionably factored into the betting line.

As a +190 underdog, Ian Mccall went on to dethrone formed number one flyweight Jussier Da Silva last year, which subsequently bought his way into this tournament.

Mccall double his jab up nicely in order to work his way into the pocket and shows the more advanced lead hand. He likes to enter the pocket with a forceful lead hook and usually disguises the punch quite well to the body. From there he has a powerful right hand that you’ll often see him come over the top with.

I consider Ian to be the crisper, cleaner striker of the two; however, Johnson’s speed and ability to close the distance will likely negate a lot of that throughout the fight. Johnson’s higher strike output is another massive concern for me of this goes to a decision, which in a close fight could very well be the difference on the scorecards.

I expect Johnson’s speed and takedowns to be enough to earn the decision, however +319 on Mccall is enough to warrant a small play on the underdog. Giving him only a 24% chance to win here seem just a tad off to me.

UFC Pick: “Uncle Creepy” +319 (at sportbet.com)