UFC fans are blessed with back to back events this weekend as UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 both will grace our television sets this weekend. UFC on FX 4 gives us a prime shot at building our bankroll for Saturday night's big event.
Lightweight -Clay Guida vs. Gray
coming off his first professional loss to former lightweight champ Frankie
Edgar back in October of last year. The
Bully is now poised to avenge that defeat and get back on the winning track
against a seasoned veteran of the MMA wars in Clay Guida.
Read Brian Mendez's thoughts & picks for this fight.
rolling like a freight train downhill by punishing his previous four opponents
until he ran into a buzz-saw in the soon to be lightweight champion Ben
Henderson. Guida traded with Henderson
for three solid rounds but was on the losing end of a unanimous verdict. Now it is time for Guida to get back on the
same winning track as Maynard, however one of these fighters will be derailed
and the other will be elevated to top contender status.
Maynard is the heavy UFC betting favorite in this fight (-335 at 5Dimes.com) because his mat
game is superior to Guida's and his striking is supposed to be as well. But riddle me this - when was the last time
Maynard knocked anyone out? How about
September 19th, 2007 over the immortal Joe Veres. Sure he rocked Frankie Edgar in the 1st
round of their championship bout but he could not put him away and withered
down the stretch.
have 12 losses to Maynard's one but Guida is a far better fighter than he was
earlier in his career when he dropped several split decisions that he would not
lose today. Where Maynard has yet to
submit anyone in his MMA career, Guida has an impressive hit list of 15 subs
but it should be noted that he has been susceptible to them as well, losing on
six occasions via submission. But
Maynard has not submitted anyone in his career, why he would start with an
elite contender like Guida?
line is that Guida has amazing cardio and will go full throttle throughout the
fight. In my view Maynard's superior
wrestling may ultimately win him the day but the oddsmakers are viewing this as
a one sided affair while I believe it is more of a coin flip. Let's take advantage of their generosity and play Guida +275 as a live
Lightweight—Sam Stout vs. Spencer
not traded blows in over 5 years yet their previous clashes are amongst the
most exciting in the pantheon of UFC matches. Sam Stout and Spencer Fisher will fight the rubber match that everyone
has waited for and they will do it Friday night as one of four main events.
has split his last 8 contests in the UFC, winning four and losing four, but all
his losses have been by decision. However, he has been competitive even in defeat as evidenced by his
three Fight of the Night contests and a Knockout of the Night during this
span. In June of last year he turned out
the lights on Yves Edwards at UFC 131.
age may be catching up to Spencer Fisher who recently turned 36 in May. He has dropped 4 of his last 5 fights in the
UFC and a loss on Friday night would almost certainly punch his ticket out of
the organization. The best barometer
between the two fighters may in fact be their most recent common opponent,
Thiago Tavares. Whereas Stout lost a
hotly contested unanimous decision, Fisher was TKO'ed midway through the 2nd
fighters are more than capable of dropping bombs, with Fisher knocking out 10
opponents over the course of his 24 victories and Stout notching 9 KO's in his
17 wins. Fisher has a big edge in the
submission game with nine versus only one for Stout but it is unlikely Fisher
will register another one here as his opponent has not been submitted in almost
six years. No, this fight will feature
heavy artillery and nonstop action but at the end of the day the fight will
belong to the fighter who is coming into his prime not the one who appears to
be well past it. Sam Stout (-310) wins by unanimous decision.
Welterweight—Brian Ebersole vs. TJ
Ebersole has more fights under his belt at the age of 31 than a handful of
fighters would amass throughout their professional careers. It wasn't until he was 30 years old and a
battle tested veteran of 60 fights that he got the call to the big leagues of
On February 27th, 2011
Dana White gave Ebersole a shot and three fights later he is undefeated in the
UFC. Ebersole is on a 10 fight win
streak and has not lost in almost four years. He has knockout power (14 - KO's), is a submission specialist (20 -
Subs) and has a wagon full of experience.
submission specialists, TJ Waldburger would certainly rate as one of the best
in the division. Of fifteen wins, twelve
have been by submission with one KO and two decisions. Waldburger is a veritable novice compared to
his opponent but he actually has one more fight in the UFC and holds a 3-1
record under their banner.
Ebersole has fallen prey to submission specialists before, which accounted for
nine of his 14 losses, he has not tapped out in over seven years. However, he is the only fighter in this match
who has true knockout power. This may be
precisely the manner in which the fight ends because Waldburger has been KO'ed
in 5 of his 6 losses.
As good as
Waldburger is on the mat, I don't see a clear advantage against a high caliber mat
master like Ebersole but I can easily see Waldburger getting buckled by a
fusillade of blows by the relentless Brian Ebersole. The
smart money is on Ebersole -260.
Featherweight—Ross Pearson vs. Cub
should be interesting as both featherweights have similar records and both have
relatively similar styles. While Pearson
may be known for slightly better boxing ability it would interest many to note
that Swanson is working with the same boxing trainer as world welterweight
champion Timothy Bradley.
It should be
an action packed fight and it is difficult to determine who may have the edge
here. Swanson has alternated wins and
losses over his last six fights and seeing as he defeated George Roop by
knockout in the 2nd round in his last appearance then the pattern
would suggest he will lose this fight to Pearson. However, Pearson has the identical pattern
over his last four fights with the last being a unanimous decision victory over
things are even, why not take the vig
instead of laying it? Play Swanson as a value bet only +165.