UFC on FX 4: Gray Maynard vs. Clay Guida Betting Odds & Picks

With two of the UFC’s top Lightweights set to square off, find out if Gray Maynard’s crisper boxing and clear strength advantages are enough to validate his -325 pricetag over the high octane attack of Clay Guida.

UFC on FX 4: Gray “The Bully” Maynard vs. Clay Guida

From Atlantic City, New Jersey, UFC on FX 4 pits Clay Guida against Gray Maynard as two top lightweights look to reestablish their place in line for a title shot.

Maynard's clear wrestling edge and more refined boxing are the two primary factors leading to his current -365 pricetag. The real question is whether or not Guida's cardio and spastic, judge-friendly activity on the feet is enough to squeak out a close decision in a potential 5 round affair.

Guida's last few outings consist of him getting outclassed and choked out by Kenny Florian, earning a somewhat lucky TKO due to a jaw injury sustained by Dos Anjos, then taking a close, but controversial decision off Anthony Pettis. His finest outing in that span, oddly enough, came against Lightweight champion Henderson, where his performance marginally validated value as a +246 underdog in the eyes of the UFC odds makers.

Maynard, in that same period, has been credited for having the most success on the feet than any other lightweight against Nate Diaz, edged out decision over Florian, and fought former champion, Frankie Edgar, to a draw before getting TKO'd in a rematch.

I think it’s fairly clear who’s gone through the more credible route of opposition while actually out performing their opponents. Realistically, Guida could easily be 1-3 in his last 4 fights, or 2-5 in his last 7, with his only two definitive wins in that span coming against the lowly Takanori Gomi and Shannon Gugerty.

Lightweight Breakdown & Prediction

First, it’s worth noting that Maynard recently took it upon himself to broaden his training partners by outsourcing himself to Nova Uniao before hooking up with an elite wrestling team like AKA -- two of the top camps catering to his specific size and skill-set.

I think Maynard’s primary focus against Guida needs to be pacing his output while conservatively throwing his power shots, and if he can, utilize his serviceable jab to help to stabilize some of Guida’s chaotic movement.  

On the feet, Guida is going to have to be particularly cautious of Gray’s counter uppercut, his overhand and right hook on the inside, and to a lesser extent, his lead hook, which is what was used to initially drop Frankie Edgar in the first fight. 

Gray is capable of closing distance surprisingly fast with his right hand. Even a much rangier guy like Nate Diaz was having some trouble picking up on his release point and avoiding the big shots on the inside. At around the 3 minute mark in the second round we watched as Gray was able to disguise a right hand over the top and clearly stun Diaz. The fact that a far less refined Gray Maynard was able to put up one of the higher connect percentage against Diaz says a lot in my eyes, even if both men were still largely unpolished at the time.

So the question then becomes how likely is Guida to take over in the last two rounds with his clearly superior pace and output.

If you look at his last fight with Ben Henderson you’ll find that he was shockingly competitive in the wrestling department. In some eyes, he even managed to steal the last round with a late guillotine attempt.

We watched as he attempted to tire Henderson out early by pressuring him against the cage while holding his own in several scramble situations throughout the fight. He managed to score two brief takedowns in the second round due in large part to his timing and sheer relentlessness.

Though I see zero UFC betting value in Guida SU, I think there could be a slight value surrounding the props on him either winning in rounds 4 or 5, or by submission. If he can tire Maynard out enough in the first few rounds, I can see him possibly threatening with a guillotine or possible side/armtriangle choke similar to the one he used to submit Shannon Gugerty.

I think at the end of the day we can expect Maynard to land the cleaner harder shots for all 5 rounds. Though his cardio is a concern, I feel his last two fights against Frankie Edgar will go a long way in him being more conscious of properly pacing himself, especially knowing he’s up against someone with such freakish recovery and a never-ending gas tank.