The public enamoring over the heavyweight division has been a constant theme in combat sports. For the first time in UFC history we will see the Heavyweight Championship for free on network television.


UFC ON Fox 1: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos for Heavyweight Strap 

Cain VelasquezWhen Cain Velasquez meets Dos Santos it will be his 1st title defense since upsetting Brock Lesnar back in 2010. Aside from taking home the UFC belt that night, Cain also sustained an unfortunate tear to his rotator cuff, sidelining him for the majority of 2011. 

It’s an injury which has directly affected the progression of the betting line. Now that UFC betting fans have been reassured of some successful rehabilitation, we’re beginning to see some movement in favor of the champion. Some sportsbooks have pushed the UFC odds up as much as 15 cents. 

During the 10 month span of Cain Velasquez rehabbing his shoulder, Dos Santos managed to coach an entire season of the ultimate fighter before ultimately going on to beat Shane Carwin. His 7 fight winning streak has rightfully earned him this title shot, and note that in those 7 fights only two men have made it to the final bell. He also currently holds one of the highest knockout ratios at heavyweight. 

Santos inside the distance at +177 is the only reasonable offer when it comes to betting on Cigano. Outside of an early knockout I find it hard to envision Dos Santos overcoming the champion’s relentlessness over an entire 5 rounds.  More specifically, I’d target 5dimes’ option on Santos winning in round 1 or 2.

To counteract Cain’s wrestling, Santos has enlisted former All American wrestler Josh Janousek. Emulating Cain’s wrestling style is no easy task though; you have to remember his own wrestling is constantly evolving. Consistently training with elite level wrestlers like Muhammed Lawal and Daniel Cormier makes it so there’s no choice but to improve or get left behind.

Junior Dos Santos

Under the guidance of Javier Mendez, Team AKA has developed a knack for seamlessly transforming elite level wrestlers into credible kick boxers. The striking progression of guys like Cain, Koscheck, and Daniel Cormier is undeniable. Guys once thought of as one dimensional wrestlers are now knocking guys out on a consistent basis. 

There are at least 3 primary questions heading into this fight. One: how does Velasquez plan on neutralizing Cigano’s lead uppercut? Two: How will Cigano’s cardio hold up in a 5 rounder with Cain? Three: What kind of threat, if any, will Cigano provide off his back? 

My take on this fight: Cain will tentatively throw his combinations until he finds the proper spacing to shoot for a double or single leg against the cage. If Santos can’t catch him in the first two rounds then I think Cain’s grind will induce an unavoidable wilting process. Round by round we’ll see Cain slowly zap the life out of the young contender. While many will point to Cigano’s defensive wrestling against Carwin, it’s just not comparable to Cain’s blend of speed and athleticism. Play Cain at -135. 

Ben “Smooth” Henderson vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida 

It was just a few months ago when almost the entire UFC roster was ready to write off the competition from the newly acquired WEC. Fighters like Ben Henderson and Donald Cerrone, though, have quickly shown why overlooking them was a mistake. 

In only 4 months Henderson managed to upset the previously ranked number one lightweight contender. Surprisingly, Henderson effortlessly outclassed Jim Miller for the entire three rounds. Watching Miller take that kind of beating was a definitive eye opener for the rest of the division; never in Miller’s career had we seen such a one sided affair. 

Looking at the betting line, I can’t help but think Guida’s win streak along with his overall popularity has shaded the line in his favor. The truth is: Guida’s last 4 fights have all been stylistically favorable. 

You’d have to go back to 2009 against Kenny Florian to see the last time he fought someone who could stuff his shot. It just so happens he was boxed up and choked out in the first round. 

Against Henderson, he’ll be fighting a rubbery jointed wrestler who easily holds an offensive and defensive edge. Henderson’s size and ever improving arsenal of strikes is well worth the current price of -220. My advice is to place your bet sooner rather than later before the line potentially closes against you. Expect another ordained performance from the smooth one. 

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier vs. Pablo “The Scarecrow” Garza 

These two former lightweights have been a on a tear since making a highly beneficial jump down to featherweight. After some rough outings at 155, it was decided each man’s frame was better suited for a lighter weight class. Since the switch they’ve managed to post an impressive 5-0 record between the two of them. 

Standing at 6’1, the “Scarecrow” has shown great use of his advantageous length and range. An exemplary example came against Fredson Paixao when Garza launched a flying knee that ended the fight in the first round. Not only does his length give him an edge in striking exchanges, but watch his most recent fight to see how his longs leg increase the intricacy of his triangle-choke attempts.

Since derailing Josh Grispi’s hype train, Dustin has established himself as an elite featherweight contender. In his last fight he was able to out-strike Jason Young for portions of their fight. The 22 year old has shown the type of development you’d like to see out of a future champion. 

I have this fight coming down to Dustin’s ability to be the aggressor while easily controlling whether or not he wants to grapple or strike. Garza at anything above +235 would make him a live dog but I see Dustin controlling this fight for a decision win.  

Mike “Megatron” Pierce vs. Paul Bradley 

A battle between touted wrestlers takes place when Portland State’s Mike Pierce takes on the heavy handed, Paul Bradley. This is one fight where I’m willing to lay some considerable chalk. 

Bradley was largely unimpressive in his UFC debut against Rafael Natal. All through the fight he demonstrated lackadaisical defense along with a questionable gas tank. His punching power is supposedly his one edge in this fight, but against Pierce’s durability, he’s looking at an uphill battle from the opening bell. 

Not only does Bradley have to worry about the fact that Mike has never been finished, but judging from how Pierce’s wrestling has translated into MMA, Id say he easily controls where this fight takes place. 

Use Pierce to fill as many optimally priced parlays as you can. I think we can expect Mike to secure an early submission with either a side choke or some form of arm bar.