With the UFC slowly out-growing its infancy, sportsbooks have been forced to sharpen up against previously exploitable betting angles. Follow along as we dissect the key elements in successfully handicapping MMA’s modern day landscape.

UFC Betting Guide

Over the last two years the sport of Mixed Martial Arts has become increasingly difficult to handicap. Once thought of as merely a niche sport, the alarming growth of the UFC has forced sportsbooks to tighten up on their opening lines. No longer are the days of picking off 3 or 4 openers and having them all close 30-50 cents your way. With the talent gap shrinking the way it has been, it’s now more important than ever to focus on timing the market and shopping around for the best available price.

Opening Lines

There are three books in particular you want to focus on when searching for the earliest line release. Bookmaker, Pinnacle, and 5dimes.com all are known for releasing the earliest prices. More times then not, Bookmaker.com is first out of the three.  

Always be on the lookout for main event match-ups a day after they’re announced, and for preliminary fights, 3-4 days before the event is usually the norm. This has become the typical routine for releasing opening lines in MMA.

The importance of timing the opening lines should not be overlooked. The majority of your betting value can quickly evaporate if you are too slow to act before the line moves. A recent example of capitalizing on an erroneous opener was in the Stefan Struve vs. Sean Mccorkle fight. 5dimes.com opened Struve at -260 only to quickly drop the line down to -130. Bettors appeared merciless on the opener and the influx of money forced the sportsbook to admit to an obvious miscalculation of their opening price.

Weigh-ins &Cutting Weight

Weigh-ins usually occur a day before the fight and can often times lead to a significant amount of money bet against a particular fighter. For every 10 guys that have weight-cutting down to a science, there’s usually one or two who are in a constant struggle to shed that last pound. Fighters who have wrestled in college are the most precise at making weight. This is largely due to the familiarization with cutting that they developed throughout their college wrestling career.

Most of today’s weight issues are prevalent in the lower weight divisions. Often times we will see a small welterweight fighter attempt a jump down to 155 or an undersized middleweight fighter attempt a jump down to welterweight.

 The reason for so many in-between fighters is due in large part to the limited weight classes. Unlike boxing, MMA has yet to establish more than 5 weight classes. As the UFC continues to outgrow its infancy, we should soon expect to see a junior middleweight and possibly even a cruiserweight division.

When examining two fighters at a weigh-in, there are 2 things to focus on. First, you want to be weary of any fighter that looks too emaciated. This is a result of cutting too much weight and often times leads to a fragile and depleted opponent in the cage.

Then there’s the issue of fighters who decide they’d rather forfeit a % of their purse rather than make the weight. This is usually a dead giveaway of a fighter who has over-exhausted his body. Cardio and strength issues promptly become a concern.

Media Outlets and Fight Film

In today’s networking age, Twitter and Facebook have become relevant tools in handicapping MMA. Following a fighter’s twitter account can provide insight into his training habits and also help understand his mental state leading up to the fight. It’s always important to take notice of the fighter who is tweeting about two-a-day workouts and the fighters tweeting about their exciting nightlife. I’m sure you can guess which one usually shows up to perform.

Film study and fighter-breakdown will always be a key factor to a MMA handicapper’s success. It’s vastly important to be as meticulous as possible when breaking down a fighter’s wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and striking credentials. The best avenues to access fight film are either through ordering a yearly subscription to UFC.com or simply using YouTube and other free video services alike.

Don’t underestimate the power of video search engines. More times than not, the bookmaker may be limited to the exact same YouTube footage you are. Preliminary fighters are especially tough for a linemaker to accurately price for that reason exactly.