In Part 2 we will analyze a recent fight and incorporate all the other components of selecting the right fighter to fatten your bankroll. Using past and future examples, learn to read what a fighters record won't tell you, and how it can make you rich.
The only way
a fighter gets a golden ticket into the UFC is if they’ve demonstrated a superior
level of skill in one of the many junior circuits in the world of mixed martial
arts. Naturally the bigger the
organization, the better the competition and victories gain more import and
credence in the eyes of the Dana Whites (UFC president) and Scott Cokers
(Strikeforce Executive VP and GM) of the MMA world.
Of course we know it’s the matchmakers like
the UFC’s Joe Silva and the newly ensconced Sean Shelby of Strikeforce that are
responsible for making the call but their job is to ultimately please the
higher ups.
Let’s take a
look at how class of opponent factors into our evaluation of a fight. As impressive as an undefeated streak may be,
it is even more important to analyze who the fighter has defeated and if any of
his previous opponents measure up to the caliber of his newest opponent.
In addition to fighting style and takedown
defenses which we discussed in Part 1, we also must take into account a few
other factors such as age, height, reach, recent activity, injury reports and
results of recent fights. Without
further adieu, let’s get to it.
The age factor
At UFC 128
when Jon Bones Jones claimed the UFC Light Heavyweight title from Shogun, I was
fortunate enough to have picked 11 of 12 winners. Though I would love to bask in the glory of that record, I would be less
than forthright if I didn’t reveal that many of the UFC betting favorites were victorious
on that particular card.
Let’s analyze
one of the fights that evening between a rising star and a fading legend. I am referring to the match between Brendan
Schaub and Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovik. We
will examine the data before their fight on March 19th, 2011. In a nod to our previous article, it should
be noted both fighters are all about the stand-up game though Schaub’s take
down defense proved to play a pivotal and valuable role in the final analysis.
Brendan Schaub
Age: 28
Height: 6’4”
Reach: 79.5 inches (202 cm’s)
Style: Boxing (Golden Gloves winner) & BJJ
(purple belt)
Record (prior to the fight): 6 Wins
(5 KO’s 1 Decision) – 1 Loss (1 Loss by KO)
Last 3 fights: 3-0 (2 TKO’s and most recent
fight a decision victory over Gabriel Gonzaga)
Activity: 4 fights within one year
Level of competition: 3-1 in the UFC and currently in the UFC
Notable opponents: A decision over UFC veteran Gabriel Gonzaga
and a KO loss to Roy Nelson
Titles: The Ultimate Fighter Season 10th
Season: The Heavyweights runner-up
Specialty: Punching
Mirko Filipovik
Age: 36
Height: 6’2”
Reach: 73 inches (185 cm’s)
Style: Kickboxing & Black belt in Tae Kwon Do
Record (prior to the fight): 27 Wins
(20 KO’s, 4 Submissions, 3 Decisions) – 9 losses (4 by KO, 2 by submission and
3 by decision) – 2 Draws – 1 No Contest
Last 3 fights: 2-1 (1 victory by KO and 1 by submission and
most recent fight a loss by KO to Frank Mir)
Activity: 4 fights in one year
Level of competition: 4-4 in the UFC but storied history within the
PRIDE organization.
Notable Opponents: Victories over Wanderlei Silva, Mark Coleman,
Josh Barnett and losses to Antonio Nogueira, Fedor Emelianenko, Gabriel
Gonzaga, Cheick Kongo, Junior dos Santos, and Frank Mir
Titles: IKBF World Heavyweight Full Contact champion
Specialty: Left leg kick and heavy hands
If you do
some research you will note Cro Cop had a record of 16-7 for a total of 23
fights as a professional kickboxer in addition to his 39 fights as a mixed
martial artist. That is a grand total of
62 fights which makes him a 36 year old with some very heavy mileage.
If you review his entire MMA history, you
would have to go back to September of ’06 when he last landed his legendary
head kick for a KO (which happened upon the unsuspecting noggin of Wanderlei
Silva). That is a very telling stat for
someone who is extolled for his thunderous head kicks.
In his only
loss, Brendan Schaub learned quickly after his opening round KO by MMA veteran
and former IFL champion Roy “Big Country” Nelson that he isn’t the only one who
sports knockout power. It is important
to note that Schaub, up until that time, had not faced the caliber of a Roy
Nelson and had simply overpowered his previous less polished opponents. Schaub rebounded nicely by reeling off 3
consecutive wins in the UFC leading up to his appointment with Cro Cop.
After these
initial observations we see that Schaub and Cro Cop have one common opponent,
Gabriel Gonzaga. Schaub defeated the
well respected UFC veteran in a unanimous decision only 5 months prior to his
showdown with Filipovik. Meanwhile,
Filipovik was knocked out by Gonzaga at UFC 70 in April of 2007. More recently, Cro Cop got knocked out by the
very talented Frank Mir in October of 2010 which was his last fight before
meeting Schaub.
So pick the obvious choice, right?
Though all
indications pointed to a successful outcome for the younger, stronger Schaub
there was one concern I had. Filipovik’s
last victory inside the Octagon occurred on June 12th of 2010
against kickboxer Pat Barry. Barry’s
nuclear fists are similar to Schaub’s only Barry has a much more refined
pedigree. He took a silver medal in the
World Kung Fu championships and is a devout practitioner of Sanshou while
blending a stinging Muay Thai into his kickboxing arsenal. Schaub on the other hand is a ferocious
puncher but his repertoire is neither as varied nor as formally trained as
Barry’s.
But upon
further inspection it was noted that though Barry has a fierce stand-up game he
has very limited skills on the mat. The
wily Cro Cop understood very early it was not in his best interest to stand and
trade with a grenade launcher like Barry after he nearly got taken out in the
first round.
Ultimately Cro Cop realized
his limited ground game was still far better than Barry’s and it was suicide to
stand and throw bombs with the younger fighter. If this fight had occurred 5 years earlier, Cro Cop would have been in
much better stead but even he knows his devastating power is not what it once
was. As the fight continued to hit the
mat, Cro Cop scored with some ground and pound and then submitted Barry in
Round 3 for only the second submission by choke of his extensive career.
How this relates to Part 1
In the MMA
Betting Guide Part 1, I talked about fighters with ground games enjoying a big
advantage over those who do not. However, the only thing that mitigates that advantage is a fighter who
may not be particularly adept on the ground but possesses an excellent take
down defense. If the wrestlers and the
grapplers can’t get you on the mat, their advantage is nullified.
Schaub’s marvelous take down defense was on
display against the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Gabriel Gonzaga whose 11
victories included 6 submissions. Schaub
may only be armed with a purple belt in BJJ but while he hones his craft to
include armbars and chokes, in the meantime he will be content to thwarting
those more skilled on the mat and beating them with the heavy leather he
throws.
If we
consider Schaub’s last fight against Gabriel Gonzaga, it tells us everything we
need to know and why Schaub would not suffer the same fate as his bomb tossing
brother Pat Barry. I knew that if
Gabriel Gonzaga, a fighter far more skilled in takedowns and submissions than
Cro Cop, could not wrestle, throw or shoot his way to a dominating ground and
pound of Schaub then the only way for Filipovik to win was standing up. He was not going to be able to catch Schaub
the same way he caught Barry.
It was
obvious Cro Cop is not the same fighter he was years ago and his only chance
would be to land one of his murderous head kicks to knock out Schaub. As stated previously, our homework clearly
showed he hadn’t done that since September of ’06 with a KO of Wanderlei Silva. I didn’t see it happening again in 2011 and I
called for Brendan Schaub to win by KO, and as you may recall, our homework paid off.
What to expect in Part 3
That’s it
for Part 2 of our MMA Betting Guide. In
Part 3 we will discuss how to play heavy favorites without losing your bankroll
and when perceived value is often better than laying the lumber in the long
run. We will discuss that and many other
points of interest in the conclusion to SBR’s MMA Betting Guide.