By the time you get to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament, every team by definition has top talent, is playing well, and has maximum motivation. There can still be edges though, so to help you out with your betting, here's a rundown of how some of the teams still remaining have fared against the spreads this year, both overall and recently.
The coldest teams ATS, despite their winning ways, are probably BYU and North Carolina. BYU was a sub-.500 team on the year against the spread overall, and at the end of the year their ATS results were just as middling, although their big win and cover last game against Gonzaga was impressive, without question. North Carolina finally returned to an elite level of play down the stretch after a cold start, but they were still not a good bet, as is often the case with the Tar Heels even when they are playing dominantly. UNC is 0-4-1 ATS so far this post-season despite getting straight up wins, and that one push was a game that went to OT when they were a 5 point favorite, so tread carefully with UNC the rest of the way.
No surprise at this point in the year, there are a number of teams that are in the midst of hugely profitable runs. Richmond has covered 9 in a row, UConn has covered 7 in a row, and Florida St has covered 5 in a row. And VCU of course, has amazingly won three straight tournament games by double digits, each time coming in as an underdog. Mention should also go to Florida, which is 7-1-1 ATS over their last 9, and perhaps surprisingly, Ohio St, which still seems to be underrated a bit on their lines despite being the #1-ranked team in the country. Ohio St is 7-2 ATS over their last 9.
Looking at the totals, keep in mind certain teams that have been strongly trending over or under their posted totals for a while now. First off, Marquette took heavy late steam on the under in their last game against Syracuse, and that's no surprise - after going under in that game, Marquette is now 2-14 O/U in their last 16 games, including all their post season games so far. Another big under trender has been Richmond, employing their efficient Princeton offense in these big games at the end of the year, and Richmond is now 0-7-1 O/U in their last 8. Florida St and Kentucky have also both been trending notably under recently, each are 1-6 O/U in their last 7.
Not many teams have been good over bets, but two that have been are Florida, which is 9-1 O/U over their last 10, and surprisingly, the normally low-scoring Wisconsin, which is 8-2 O/U in its last 10. Wisconsin's defense-oriented style of play has not changed much, but its totals, which are usually in the mid-120s or lower, appear to be a bit too low overall at the moment.
And that's a wrap-up of some key team trends for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 coming up this weekend.
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